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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - May 18, 2020 Update: 34,709 cases - 2,440 deaths - 269,748 tests

Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:06 pm to
Posted by Golfer
Member since Nov 2005
75052 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:06 pm to
Rolling averages...sorry I took the weekend off:










Posted by YouAre8Up
in a house
Member since Mar 2011
12792 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:07 pm to
I'm sure that Latoya will have an new conference to explain what is going on here in her city.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79887 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:09 pm to
My Queen needs to SHUT *clap* IT *clap* DOWN *clap*


Two days with no body got rona'd in Orleans Parish
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 12:14 pm
Posted by Cymry Teigr
Member since Sep 2012
2138 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:11 pm to
Weren't they supposed to go back to providing the number of cases in nursing homes starting today?
Posted by Anaximander
3524 Third St New Orleans, LA
Member since Jun 2018
3412 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

And while hospitalizations did go up slightly, I can't help but wonder if they're admitting people that they normally wouldn't because now "there is space" and they're not "overwhelmed".




They need the money...the guy they previously told just go home now gets a bed.
Posted by danilo
Member since Nov 2008
26351 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

And while hospitalizations did go up slightly, I can't help but wonder if they're admitting people that they normally wouldn't because now "there is space" and they're not "overwhelmed".

I wonder if that would be flirting with fraud from CMS
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40271 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:18 pm to
quote:


They need the money...the guy they previously told just go home now gets a bed.



My thought exactly but we'll never really know the truth will we??

And yes the nursing home names/numbers are supposed to come out today -- not sure when though.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40271 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:26 pm to

quote:

I wonder if that would be flirting with fraud from CMS


I'm guessing that they'll justify it with O2 monitoring, as well as ekg monitoring if they're on the 2 med cocktail. Still crazy to me though.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
41706 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

I'm watching hospitalizations ... cases will continue to go up.

And while hospitalizations did go up slightly, I can't help but wonder if they're admitting people that they normally wouldn't because now "there is space" and they're not "overwhelmed".



Cases and hospitals WILL go up in 2-3 weeks. But we have the capacity to handle that.

They need to add another stat to their daily releases - percentage of hospital capacity in use. When that number starts getting close to 100, especially at a high daily increase, that's when we need to worry.
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
25964 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Cases and hospitals WILL go up in 2-3 weeks. But we have the capacity to handle that.


Maybe, but have there been spikes in any of those areas, worldwide, where they predicted spikes after something happening?

Much of Europe has opened up. Any spikes there?

Wisconsin had that election nigh a month back where over 400,000 people voted, and they had a grand total of like 65 people that said they voted test positive after voting...and there's no guarantee they caught it at the polls.

What's happened in Georgia and Florida?
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 12:37 pm
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
22273 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:37 pm to
34,709 active cases
2,440 deaths
26,249 (recovered as of 5/16)

6,020 Active cases based on data provided. Enter assumptions

Recovered data is 2 days old. 14 days from 5/16 is 5/02. New cases: 5/02 - 5/03 = 629

5,391 Active cases
1,031 in Hospitals
4,360 Conservative estimate of cases not in hospitals

Obligatory: The 14 day guidelines are given by ldh and based on when the patient tests positive. The information that we have readily available is when the positive test result is known, not when the test was administered. In addition, the date of the onset of symptoms does not matter either.

If you add the new cases from 5/05 through 5/18 (14 days), you get 5,027 cases. 7,644 cases from 4/28 through 5/18 (21 days)

As they clear up backlogs, I can only imagine these numbers won't give us a great range. Before the 5/16 update, I would have had the range between 6,833 - 5,802 because so many of these new cases are weeks old and either already recovered, or passed away.
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:40 pm to
So there is a total of ~5500 people in the whole state that have this? Of that, only ~1000(20%) are in the hospital, and 118 (2%) are in the ICU?
Why are we not in Phase 3?
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139233 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Where the hell did those goalposts go?
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
178363 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:42 pm to
Hospitalization and vents up. Shut it down
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139233 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

So there is a total of ~5500 people in the whole state that have this? Of that, only ~1000(20%) are in the hospital, and 118 (2%) are in the ICU?
Why are we not in Phase 3?


Look, man. We can't endanger the lives of anyone in Bunkie because people in NO got the rona. Way too risky.
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
56853 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:52 pm to
LDH Nursing home list

I had to google & found a news story with a link to report
Posted by Jimmy2shoes
The South
Member since Mar 2014
11004 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 12:57 pm to
Is we is or is we aint gonna die?
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23191 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 1:01 pm to
If my math is right, 376 in EBR nursing homes are positive
Posted by Cymry Teigr
Member since Sep 2012
2138 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 1:10 pm to
Thanks for the list.

Briefly looking through it and adding up the numbers it looks like almost everywhere the nursing homes account t for 50-65% of the deaths in each Parish.

I’m sure if they’d provide lists for prisons too we’d find how rare any death was in the general population,
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
25964 posts
Posted on 5/18/20 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

Briefly looking through it and adding up the numbers it looks like almost everywhere the nursing homes account t for 50-65% of the deaths in each Parish.


This has been the case nationwide.
This post was edited on 5/18/20 at 1:17 pm
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