re: Louisiana COVID-19 - May 1, 2020 Update: 28,711 cases - 1,927 deaths - 168,251 tested

Fun with math:
28,711 active cases
1,927 deaths
17,303 (recovered as of 4/26)

9,481 Active cases based on data provided. Enter assumptions

Recovered data is 5 days old. 21 days from 4/26 is 4/05. New cases:
4/06 - 1,857
4/07 - 1,417
4/08 - 746
4/09 - 1,253
4/10 - 970

3,238 Active cases
1,607 in Hospitals
1,631 Cases not in hospitals

Recovered data is 5 days old. 14 days from 4/26 is 4/12. New cases:
4/13 - 421
4/14 - 502
4/15 - 433
4/16 - 581
4/17 - 586

6,958 Active cases
1,607 in Hospitals
5,351 Cases not in hospitals

Conservatively the cases of people not in hospitals is somewhere between 1,631 and 5,351

Obligatory: The 14 & 21 days guidelines are given by ldh and based on when the patient tests positive. The information that we have readily available is when the positive test result is known, not when the test was administered. In addition, the date of the onset of symptoms does not matter either.

We aint never going to get our hairs cut

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Largest increases in cases from yesterday by parish:

East Baton Rouge 115
Jefferson 108
St. Tammany 50
Calcasieu 48
Orleans 43
Caddo 39
Ascension 34
Livingston 32
Ouachita 24

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Has to be delayed reporting in Calcasieu. Largest one day increase since this started has been like 26. Now eights weeks in we get 48? Makes no sense.

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Largest increases in cases from yesterday by parish:

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I’d put money on the LP cases being nursing homes

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Did JBE hold test results to be released today to restart the clock?

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If so, he may have played his hand too quick. We still have 10 days until the next decision day on 5/11.

JBE press conference at 2:30

Twitter

Everything has been updated. Thank you for your patience.

Growing opposition to shutdown order is followed up with a sudden unexplained surge in infections.

Seems legit

We’re screwed. Bobby Boucher’s Daddy ain’t opening up anytime soon. See y’all in August.