re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 29, 2020 Update: 112,773 cases - 3,769 deaths - 1,295,131 tested

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Maybe it's just me, but I fail to see how "daily" deaths are really relevant to anything, considering the random and variable nature of when people die. We need total deaths for CFR and IFR, and a rough monthly trend might tell us something, but that seems to be it to me

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You aren't alone. And the way deaths are reported, even the total deaths is useless unless they separate out the "of COVID" from the "with COVID" and "of COVID complications".

There will be a 30 year old attributed to the death counts at one point this week. He had it, was at OLOL (not sure if he was there because of COVID or other reason), got a staph infection that he actually died of. But COVID will be listed as the reason.

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For those about to freak out, the deaths are a big backlog

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It's all a backlog. we are doing so many fricking tests that it takes at least 10 days to get the tests back if you aren't doing the instant ones.

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69 deaths,



you would think most would have been on ventilators which would free some up but they added 7 more

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Bear with me, this explanation might get long.

1. the 69 deaths reported today did not die in the last 24 hours. Deaths are reported by LDH to the public upon receipt of death certificate.

2. death reporting lags at least two days from actual date of death in most case (there will be the occasional death reported in one day, but this is rare). One of those lag days is today reporting yesterdays results and then the 1+ other day(s) are for the actual examination (autopsy) and issuance of death certificate by parish coroner. Note that this lag could also be several days to a week per individual death.

3. as to the ventilator situation: when you are only seeing a net number without all the variables you will get a situation like this that do not appear to make sense; the net hospitalizations and ventilator usage are mostly worthless data.

4. the daily net change in the net numbers can paint a picture of the situation that is not reflective of the actual.

5. I would assume that the death of a patient on a vent would be reported as one less vent on the date of death. So, that 69 deaths reported today would not reflect as -69 on vents on today's report, but rather were incorporated into prior days net numbers reporting.

6. On Monday (July 26th) I was in a discussion similar to this on this site. The person had assumed no deaths on that day since all deaths reported were allocated to prior days not realizing how deaths are reported by LDH to the public. If you check the LDH dashboard, as of today there were 22 deaths on that date (subject to increase as more death certificates are received by LDH over the next several days).

7. the LDH is not reporting daily admissions to the hospital nor are they reporting daily discharges from the hospital to the public which tends to murky the waters of the net number reporting.

8. today's reporting of -37 hospitalizations may be 37 deaths yesterday or it may be 22 deaths with 10 hospital admissions and 25 discharges or it could be any iteration of the above three factors that equal -37. All a decline in the net number of hospitalizations indicates is admissions were less than deaths and discharges for that day, assuming you have 100% reporting (which is in and of itself very spotty on weekends).

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How does this get a DV?

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Because any optimism goes against the teachings of the Cult of Branch Covidians. Their members are everywhere.

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frick that piece of shite!

Essentially threatening businesses that he, and his decision making, has damn near bankrupted with higher taxes? frick. That. Piece. Of. shite.

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Katie Pavlich
@KatiePavlich
CDC Director Says There are More Suicides and Overdoses than COVID Deaths