re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 31, 2020 Update: +324 cases; +19 deaths; -21 hospitalized

When the next presumed recovered # comes out, there's going to very few "active cases"

Is John Bell going to announce when all his new ventilators get here? We need them badly.

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Honestly I don’t think any of it matters, no matter what the #’s are JBE isn’t going to reopen

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This^

Either the legislature steps in, or we just accept it until after the election.

It will be interesting in two weeks if the numbers keep dropping though.

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JBE

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frick that slimy cocksucker.

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All age groups peaked before the mandate.

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I would also add that the black line in the “cases by collection date” graph is a rolling average. Which means that new cases had already started to decline when it reached its peak.

Honestly I’m not sure you can draw conclusions one way or the other about the mask mandate. Some would probably argue that various municipalities had implemented mandates prior to the statewide order. My opinion is that there are way too many variables to make much of it either way without some serious statistical analysis.

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I would also add that the black line in the “cases by collection date” graph is a rolling average. Which means that new cases had already started to decline when it reached its peak.

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I've been beating this drum for weeks. It's just obvious things peaked before the mandate, from multiple LDH graphs. You can even look at things Region by Region and see the lack of effect. Most Regions peaked at the same time on cases, which was the exact day of the mandate, which doesn't make sense for masks to have an effect considering how the virus and testing work. Some areas were before, some were after.

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Honestly I’m not sure you can draw conclusions one way or the other about the mask mandate.

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You most certainly can draw the conclusion that the mask mandate, despite what the governor says, is not the reason why the metrics declined.

Percent positive was on the decline the week before the mandate went into effect.

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The most important graph in this thread

The percent positive barely changed in this “second wave”. The testing just increased dramatically and created a false spike. This pandemic has been on its way out for a long time now

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A couple of things here:

For starters, I think the scale of that graph may be a little misleading. If the positivity rate bottomed out at 8% or so and then spiked as high as 15%, that means positivity nearly doubled along with a huge increase in testing volume. If the case count was purely due to increased testing, positivity should fall - not remain flat or increase.

Second, I think the graph of cases by age group is more telling. It’s pretty clear to me that the biggest reason this wave hasn’t been as bad as the first is likely the fact that most of the cases during the second wave were among younger people.

So big picture, I don’t think it’s a “false spike” so to speak. Rather, I think it was a spike that was much more concentrated among the lowest risk portion of the population.

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or starters, I think the scale of that graph may be a little misleading. If the positivity rate bottomed out at 8% or so and then spiked as high as 15%, that means positivity nearly doubled along with a huge increase in testing volume. If the case count was purely due to increased testing, positivity should fall - not remain flat or increase.

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There is no doubt that more virus was out circulating, however, it is still possible to increase positivity and the number of tests with targeted testing (contact tracing; congregate settings) and requiring testing of asymptomatic people trying to get back to life (workplace testing and requiring testing before surgery).

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So big picture, I don’t think it’s a “false spike” so to speak. Rather, I think it was a spike that was much more concentrated among the lowest risk portion of the population.

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#CASEdemic

You don't need to test if you ain't sick