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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 2, 2020 Update: 119,747 cases - 3893 deaths - 1,379,440 tested

Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:22 pm to
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
41465 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:22 pm to
You watch, there will be internal mandates to test more school aged kids Regardless of symptoms but it won’t be made public so it just happens to look worse.
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
51936 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:23 pm to
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

Go check out LDH twitter. Now reporting percentages of children younger than 18. First time I’ve seen them do that


They seem to cherry pick percentages by random age. Sometimes they give the percentages as below 49, I think friday they did below 30.

Can't figure out any rhyme or reason for moving the age qualifier except to make it sound worse.

The <18 percentage has been higher than >70 for weeks.
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7738 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

wish deaths would drop more


They will.
In a week or two.
Lagging indicator.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
41465 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:23 pm to
Yet the recent % of deaths for people <18 compared to deaths >70 don’t even come close to matching the numbers right?

ETA
I retyped because I’m retarded this morning.
This post was edited on 8/2/20 at 12:27 pm
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:25 pm to
Day of deaths?

I saw someone mention that the percent positive still hasn't been updated since the 24th. LDH hasn't responded as to why. Sketchy as hell that it just stopped when they were staying on top of it on the rise up.
This post was edited on 8/2/20 at 12:26 pm
Posted by danilo
Member since Nov 2008
24826 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:27 pm to
“I have a medical conditions that precludes me from wearing a mask”
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
22633 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

Can't figure out any rhyme or reason for moving the age qualifier except to make it sound worse.


The phrasing make it clear they’re putting it out there as a scare tactic.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

Sure it does ... if you believe the numbers they're putting out and the way they're being framed are on the up and up.


I believe the numbers are what they are. I know that our legislative auditors do a secondary audit of the numbers to verify accuracy of LDHs reports.

How the government and the media use that info is clearly up for grabs.
Posted by ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2870 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

Yet we can’t see the % of positives from this past week?


They must not be scary enough.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

The phrasing make it clear they’re putting it out there as a scare tactic.



Agreed.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
41465 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:30 pm to
Or it shows just how many of these 3400 are from serious back logs
Posted by ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2870 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

Can't figure out any rhyme or reason for moving the age qualifier except to make it sound worse.


Also makes it harder for the public to follow trends.
This post was edited on 8/2/20 at 12:32 pm
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:33 pm to
Posted by Dam Guide
Member since Sep 2005
16550 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:34 pm to
Do y’all think phase 2 will be lifted or extended on the 7th?
Posted by HueyP
Lubbock
Member since Nov 2008
3155 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:35 pm to
LDH: More than 3,400 new cases of COVID-19 reported over the weekend


Fox 8 in NOLA Perpetuating the fear.
Actually the numbers for the weekend are rather good compared to the last few weeks.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:36 pm to
Extended
Posted by ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2870 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:39 pm to
I was thinking more in terms of rolling averages (less statistical noise). If you have a rolling average comprised of 5 single days and 1 double day it screws with the validity.

Now that I think about it, I suppose a weighted rolling average could help that, still not ideal though. Would require great care to keep it straight.
This post was edited on 8/2/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted by Tigerfan1274
Member since May 2019
4450 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:43 pm to
I have what may be a stupid question. If you look at the LDH website and the graph titled "Percent Positive and Test Volume", it gives the percent positive by collection date. According to that graph, every day since late June have been over 10% positive. Yet, the numbers are getting each day at 12:00 are only occasionally above 10% positive. Why is that? LDH says "most tests" were collected in the last 7 days. Something doesn't add up. Or am I interpreting the data wrong?


LINK
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
76413 posts
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:44 pm to
Since the state backdates the deaths and cases it should smooth that out on their trends.

Granted, if they stop updating their trend by date of test it means we can't double check them.

If JBE plans to use the percent positive average talking point at Tuesday's presser they better update that metric to the public.
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