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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 12, 2020 Update: 134,304 cases - 4238 deaths - 1,598,609 tests
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:03 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:03 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
The numbers aren’t perfect but you can most definitely tell trends with the numbers.
1
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:04 pm to tigga1951
quote:
Today is the first time I ever looked at this chart. This chart has absolutely no value at all. The numbers mean nothing.
You don’t know what you are looking for
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:05 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
Which is why we should have used regional
Or even municipality numbers for restrictions as opposed to state wide numbers.
But that’s in the past and we are apparently using state wide numbers for a single statewide decision.
Or even municipality numbers for restrictions as opposed to state wide numbers.
But that’s in the past and we are apparently using state wide numbers for a single statewide decision.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:09 pm to tigerskin
quote:
The numbers aren’t perfect but you can most definitely tell trends with the numbers.
I don’t disagree. I think we’re trending well overall. Great to see. We in Calcasieu had a rough few weeks.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:17 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
I don’t disagree. I think we’re trending well overall. Great to see. We in Calcasieu had a rough few weeks.
We have but we are looking much, much better. Our 7-day average of positives based on collection date is 60.28. This is down from 208 on July 13. Hospitalizations are almost cut in half since July 24th.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:18 pm to TigerMomma4
quote:
I think the math on the positivity must be something like this:
100 tests
5 "new" positives
10 "repeat" positives
85 negatives
Reported as 100 tests, 5 new cases, apparent positivity 5%
JBE positivity calculation = 15 positives so 15%
It's still a useless goalpost
Yeah, so there are a few ways to calculate this based on these numbers:
A) “New” positives / total tests = 5.0%
B) “New” positives / “new” tests = 5.6%
C) Total positives / total tests = 15.0%
“A” is the way the spreadsheet in the OP calculates % positive, and there’s really no way to spin it as being valid. “B” would be the most useful, though you also have to figure out how to deal with repeat negative tests if you’re going to throw out repeat positives. I suspect “C” is what’s being reported by LDH.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:24 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
You could very well be right, who knows? Personally, I cannot wrap my head around the logistical feasibility of this scenario where at risk populations are vying for the same goods and services and basic necessities as everyone else. It sounds great in theory, but is blocking certain populations any less intrusive or more constitutional than a blanket set of restrictions? And does it even work when everyone supplying those goods and services and basic necessities are all sick?
I get your arguments, I really do. I just don’t think they’re a birds eye view.
So in other words, this statement:
quote:
You’re wrongfully assuming I support shut-down.
was bullshite.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:36 pm to lostinbr
quote:
A” is the way the spreadsheet in the OP calculates % positive, and there’s really no way to spin it as being valid.
I agree that A is not correct, but it’s a hell of a lot better than C, and how many duplicate cases are we removing that we are changing whole percent positive points?
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:39 pm to TigersSEC2010
Hospital #s have been updated. Hospitalizations down 15, vents down 3.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:44 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
I agree that A is not correct, but it’s a hell of a lot better than C,
Eh, I disagree. One method at least has some factual basis.
quote:
and how many duplicate cases are we removing that we are changing whole percent positive points?
No idea how many duplicates it is, I was just using the numbers the other poster threw out as a hypothetical. There could also be other reasons for the discrepancy, this was just the obvious one that jumped out to me.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:47 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Can’t let go of that fear porn though. It’s addicting isn’t it JBE?
How many people on his staff do you think he's dog-cussed since March??
I bet if something isn't reported just the way he wants; he loses his mind.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:50 pm to burdman
Looking good!
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:52 pm to loogaroo
Why would they cancel football??????
Posted on 8/12/20 at 3:59 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
The media has found their new Fear Porn. School Outbreaks.
School outbreaks are a 100% probability. We will see an uptick, probably substantial, after schools open. But on the other hand, we are in a tough spot. Schools can't stay closed forever and internet education isn't nearly as effective. So the issue is how much outbreak and what is the cost. We will never know unless we try.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 4:02 pm to TBoy
quote:
. So the issue is how much outbreak and what is the cost
We know enough about the virus now that no rate of spread is worth destroying our economy and breaking an entire generation of kids.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 4:07 pm to TBoy
quote:It’s not just the effectiveness in learning. More importantly, the stress and anxiety put on children and family can truly cause really harm in the long run especially for the younger kids. Anxiety and stress on a developing mind is one of the primary causes of lifelong mental issues. A child who develops clinical anxiety is going to struggle their whole life fighting demons. Whereas an adult who develops anxiety is much more likely to handle the issues and overcome that anxiety.
Schools can't stay closed forever and internet education isn't nearly as effective.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 4:36 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Does Louisiana not keep track of that?
I’m sure they do. But I’ve looked and can not find it.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 5:17 pm to burdman
Hosp and vent not updated on spreadsheet.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 7:41 pm to GeismarGeauxer
They finally updated the daily percent positive up until Aug 7th on the graph. Still barely above 10%
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