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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 4, 2020 Update: 12,496 Cases - 58,498 tested - 409 dead
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:03 pm to Antonio Moss
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:03 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:when did they start that? explains the high %pos the past couple of days.
Ochnser has 1-hour turnaround times now for high priority cases.
1
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:04 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Ochnser has 1-hour turnaround times now for high priority cases.
Women coming into give birth are getting the 1hr test at Ochsner.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:05 pm to tiger91
quote:
On the lower end ...
Vents updated to 571 - 36 more than yesterday.
Hospitalizations to 1726 - 19 more than yesterday.
INcreases in hospitalizations was less than the three prior days.
Right. We are within the projected range but trending on the bottom - which is a really good thing.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:06 pm to castorinho
quote:
when did they start that? explains the high %pos the past couple of days.
Friday.
All the major Ochsner hospitals in the state have 15-60 minute testing capabilities in their ERs and Labor and Delivery units.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:06 pm to tiger91
quote:
Vents updated to 571 - 36 more than yesterday.
Hospitalizations to 1726 - 19 more than yesterday.
That is very good news.
Looking more and more like some things will be able to open up by the beginning of May.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:09 pm to Shaun176
Why? 2300 new cases in a day is good?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:11 pm to musick
quote:
Why? 2300 new cases in a day is good?
First, "new" cases are the least valuable metric of all the data because of the initial backlog. A percentage of these cases are positives from as far back as 10-12 days ago.
Hospitalizations, vents, and deaths are all more real time metrics.
Second, we are still moving up the hill. People who thought we would flatten and start decline by now didn't understand the precautions or data models.
All that said, the current data is pretty good.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:13 pm to musick
quote:
2300 new cases in a day is good
Number of cases reported don't indicate anything due to the back log.
We know hospitalizations and ventilations are from the last 48 hours.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:13 pm to musick
quote:
Why? 2300 new cases in a day is good?
Hospitalizations, vents, and deaths are worth tracking more than positives (which in part are impacted by a backlog).
The best mathematical solution for Louisiana would be if 2 million people got the disease tomorrow but miraculously none of them end up on a vent (not feasible of course).
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:13 pm to Antonio Moss
and that hill isn’t near as big as many thought
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:14 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:.
First, "new" cases are the least valuable metric of all the data because of the initial backlog. A percentage of these cases are positives from as far back as 10-12 days ago.
I see where your going, but each new case has a potential of infecting a large amount of other people before the test was positive correct?
Seems like it's a pretty important data point
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:15 pm to Salmon
quote:
and that hill isn’t near as big as many thought
It's looking better and better but I would still caution patience.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:16 pm to Shaun176
quote:
Looking more and more like some things will be able to open up by the beginning of May.
I'm wishful thinking but given how it's been presented as gloom and doom, I just don't know.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:17 pm to Antonio Moss
That healthdata model shows the top of the hill on April 9. We shall see.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:17 pm to tiger91
quote:
JBEs governor FB page says that NOLA will need 2500 hospitals beds per day in mid May.
Last week he was saying we would be out of beds by Monday
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:18 pm to musick
quote:
I see where your going, but each new case has a potential of infecting a large amount of other people before the test was positive correct?
Seems like it's a pretty important data point
It's less important in the sense that you hope people are following the social distancing guidelines.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:18 pm to musick
quote:
I see where your going, but each new case has a potential of infecting a large amount of other people before the test was positive correct?
It's why we have the lockdown in effect. Our hard metrics appear to be slowing (hospitalizations, vents, deaths). You have to make it to the top of hill before you can start going down.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:18 pm to LSUJML
How's the trend looking?
Starting to slow down, flattening the curve yet?
Starting to slow down, flattening the curve yet?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:19 pm to tiger91
quote:
That healthdata model shows the top of the hill on April 9. We shall see.
That's the median. It could end up being as last as April 13th according the model as it stands now.
But that model gets updated today so we will see if there is a change.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 1:19 pm to musick
quote:
I see where your going, but each new case has a potential of infecting a large amount of other people before the test was positive correct?
Not a doctor but this is how I see it so take it fwiw.
You get tested .. you're sick enough to get tested so you stay home. You wait. And wait. And wait for results. Possibly by the time the results come back, you're good and recovered. There's a lag in getting tested and getting results. IF you were sick enough to be tested you should have been home.
I've been out and about for necessities and honestly a trip or two that I didn't truly need at that time. HAD I BEEN SICK, I'd never have left my home except maybe to sit outside for fresh air.
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