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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 13, 2020 Update: 21,016 Cases - 108,091 tested - 884 dead
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:12 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:12 pm to TigersSEC2010
7-Day Rolling Averages...all still on the decline from peak.
2
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:13 pm to bubbz
quote:
We are definitely not going the wrong way....
Correct.
You can't look day-to-day. You'll drive yourself crazy.
Also, "muh models" median death projections over the last four days:
51
44
30
37
Actual deaths:
53 (+2)
51 (+7)
34 (-6)
44 (+7)
Pretty accurate
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:13 pm to OvertheDwayneBowe
Would be helpful if the state showed us the curve they are looking at. Maybe even one with numbers on it.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:13 pm to TigersSEC2010
Can we go outside now?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:15 pm to Antonio Moss
Yeah, I think we are headed the right way, but it's not going to be a perfectly linear drop. There will be good days and bad days, but overall, the trend is improving.
Still waaaaay too high, though. I think we are past the peak but that's with all the measures in place. I still think April 30 is a good time to start pulling the measures back, but not before then.
Still waaaaay too high, though. I think we are past the peak but that's with all the measures in place. I still think April 30 is a good time to start pulling the measures back, but not before then.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:17 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
You can't look day-to-day. You'll drive yourself crazy.
The EBR Coroner doesn't report deaths on the weekends. He reported the 14 deaths from the weekend today.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:17 pm to sawtooth
quote:Now why would they want to calm people and not ensue panic...
Would be helpful if the state showed us the curve they are looking at. Maybe even one with numbers on it.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:18 pm to Shaun176
quote:
The EBR Coroner doesn't report deaths on the weekends. He reported the 14 deaths from the weekend today.
I was going to ask if this might be the case.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:18 pm to TigersSEC2010
The huge jump in hospitalizations today compared to yesterday is because easter is such an important day in a religious state like Louisiana. People didn’t want to ruin the day by going to hospital, so they waited until the day after.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:18 pm to Golfer
OK I Forgot about your rolling averages, as I told the poster who mentioned those before you posted.
I wish I could rescind my "we're going the wrong way" comment. I stand, thankfully, corrected.
I wish I could rescind my "we're going the wrong way" comment. I stand, thankfully, corrected.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:19 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Yeah, that's not why at all.
People didn’t want to ruin the day by going to hospital, so they waited until the day after.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:20 pm to Golfer
quote:
Posted by Message
Golfer
Are you charting just the amount it increases? Or actual numbers?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:21 pm to heatom2
We will see less than 30 # Tuesday.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:22 pm to Shaun176
quote:
The EBR Coroner doesn't report deaths on the weekends. He reported the 14 deaths from the weekend today
EBR spike may be incoming tomorrow then - EBR 52 today vs. 49 yesterday.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:22 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The huge jump in hospitalizations today compared to yesterday is because easter is such an important day in a religious state like Louisiana. People didn’t want to ruin the day by going to hospital, so they waited until the day after.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:22 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:25 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
EBR spike may be incoming tomorrow then - EBR 52 today vs. 49 yesterday.
Possibly. EBR jumped Orleans last week in spread rate.
Orleans is passed their curve but it is possible the EBR is moving up theirs.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
huge jump in hospitalizations today compared to yesterday is because easter is such an important day in a religious state like Louisiana. People didn’t want to ruin the day by going to hospital, so they waited until the day after.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:26 pm to Methuselah
quote:
Are you charting just the amount it increases?
It's the rolling average of the following:
- Number of new tests performed.
- Number of new positive cases confirmed.
- Number of new deaths.
- Increase (or decrease) in hospital bed usage.
- Increase (or decrease) in ventilation usage.
I purposely am only tracking the changes in hospitalization and vent usage because, from my perspective, it reflects the demand on the system.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:27 pm to TigersSEC2010
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