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Message
1
Posted on 8/21/20 at 4:46 pm to S
quote:
holly beach
Posted on 8/21/20 at 4:47 pm to jcaz
quote:
I suppose you'd have an uncle.
Come to think of it, I did have an uncle who became an aunt years ago.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 4:53 pm to rds dc
quote:I understand. But at the start of the earlier gif there is no shift until right at the end of the forecast and then even the forecasted path that is already in the rear view mirror shifts to the south and west.
NHC shifted the entire track south earlier.
At least that's how I'm reading the original .gif from Kim Wood.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 4:58 pm to LSURussian
We can expect Laura’s track to continue to shift further west. I’m thinking Cameron to Vermillion Bay
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:02 pm to purple18
GFS, with new data, is showing Laura as a cat 1 hurricane in the central Gulf by Wednesday and heading northwest toward either Louisiana or Texas. The run isn't finished yet so I'm not sure where it ends up.
Edit: Latest frame turns it more towards the west-northwest towards Texas. I'm betting this ends up being a Texas hurricane.
Holy shite, RI in the last frame. It goes from 980mb to 970 just from one frame to the next.
Edit: yep, major hurricane just south of Vermillion Bay beginning a more northwest motion at that point.
Edit: Latest frame turns it more towards the west-northwest towards Texas. I'm betting this ends up being a Texas hurricane.
Holy shite, RI in the last frame. It goes from 980mb to 970 just from one frame to the next.
Edit: yep, major hurricane just south of Vermillion Bay beginning a more northwest motion at that point.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:02 pm to purple18
GFS is getting into scary territory. This includes NOAA G4 data too
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:03 pm to purple18
new gfs rolling out. Has latest Hurricane Hunter data in it.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:06 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:05 pm to GEAUXmedic
FML.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:06 pm to TDsngumbo
So both end up in Texas?
frick it. I’ll check back Sunday evening. These things liable to be headed to Mexico by then
frick it. I’ll check back Sunday evening. These things liable to be headed to Mexico by then
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:07 pm to Fun Bunch
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:07 pm to lsuman25
Slowing down, maybe turning.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:08 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
So both end up in Texas?
At first I thought Laura would but now I'm not sure yet. The gfs is rolling out now.
Landfall, Cameron Parish, as a cat 3 I believe.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:09 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:09 pm to purple18
You can't say that for sure. What happens with TD14 will impact Laura. Stronger TD14 it could weaken the ridge making Laura turn north earlier. The models don't look like they believe it will weaken enough hence why it has the further shift west. Even has a possibility for Laura to take another far southerly track like it did today and get ravaged over land before it even gets into the Gulf.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:11 pm to GEAUXmedic
This GFS run can get fricked
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:12 pm to deuce985
quote:
You can't say that for sure. What happens with TD14 will impact Laura. Stronger TD14 is the more likely it's going to weaken the ridge making Laura turn north earlier. The models don't look like they believe it will weaken enough hence why it has the further shift west. Even has a possibility for Laura to take another far southerly track like it did today and get ravaged over land before it even gets into the Gulf.
This is where I'm at. The fact that the GFS with the new data is showing a strong storm slowing down and turning north at the LA coast is worrisome. Don't pay attention exactly where it is, pay attention to the possibility. Can't wait to see the ensembles.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
I mean, frick
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:13 pm to TDsngumbo
And this is why we want a stronger 14.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 5:14 pm to Duke
Come on little Marco*
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