re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Here we go. In before Punta Cana and Orange Beach trips are fricked.

This is where things start ramping up.

So 2020 finally realized she had more weapons at her disposal. The way this year has been going nothing would surprise me at this point.

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Lol at the token cat 4 straight into NOLA

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That one to the West can frick right off. On that note, I'm off to buy four gallons of milk and three loaves of bread.

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Euro and GFS with 'something' in Gulf in 8 to 10 days...???

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Both of those would be very weak systems. I still think anything before Day 10 is rushing things a bit as it will take time for things to transition. The 12z Euro EPS is messy.



It will be hard to get something significant in the Gulf, if there is an EPAC system and a number of members have an EPAC system. Then there is 97L, which mostly stays weak and some of those members might be associated with a CAG and not actually 97L (?). Finally, future 98L would probably be the one to watch with a few of the members showing a stronger system moving into the Gulf at D10. The members that do show a stronger system have cleared the EPAC out.

Well there goes my trip to Houston 10 days out.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine, located a couple of hundred miles
north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
well to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large
area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. The wave is forecast
to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-
latter part of this week while the system moves across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
Both up to 50% now

10 Day Euro looks fun!

Now the GFS, Euro, and the Canadian all have “something” in the Gulf next week.