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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/14/20 at 4:16 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 8/14/20 at 4:16 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Say 25 years ago, how many of the 2020 storms would have earned a name then?
Seems like there wasn't as much reconnaissance done then as it is now.
I don't know
I've heard NHC folks say they are following the science and I've also heard old timers say that there is now way we get this many names from a season like this back in the day.
ETA: Interesting tidbit, the previous record earliest "K" storm was Katrina.
This post was edited on 8/14/20 at 4:31 pm
1
Posted on 8/14/20 at 4:42 pm to bakersman
quote:
1) Despite what you may have heard elsewhere, the tropics are alive and well with disturbances. Josephine is midway between the Leeward Islands and Cape Verde, showing renewed convective growth. But ultimately the storm will recurve seaward and miss any populated areas. There are other systems to watch, however, including a new circulation near Cape Hatteras. And most of the numerical models show a new system in the Gulf of Mexico around August 23-24.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 4:44 pm to Cosmo
quote:
What a poo season
I'd wait a couple months before saying that.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 4:51 pm to rds dc
quote:
I don't know
I've heard NHC folks say they are following the science and I've also heard old timers say that there is now way we get this many names from a season like this back in the day.
ETA: Interesting tidbit, the previous record earliest "K" storm was Katrina.
So many of these named storms have been very weak, very lopsided and I seriously doubt 50-60 years ago that all of these would have become named storms.
Posted on 8/14/20 at 5:28 pm to doubleb
A couple might not have, like the "B" storm this year, but where these things formed mean they probably would have caught a name with shipping noticing the storms.
It is funny though that we have less ACE than the 1980 hurricane season to this point and it had one named storm up to this point.
Hurricane Allen was a hell of a cane, yes, but still funny.
It is funny though that we have less ACE than the 1980 hurricane season to this point and it had one named storm up to this point.
Hurricane Allen was a hell of a cane, yes, but still funny.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 7:06 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
1) Despite what you may have heard elsewhere, the tropics are alive and well with disturbances. Josephine is midway between the Leeward Islands and Cape Verde, showing renewed convective growth. But ultimately the storm will recurve seaward and miss any populated areas. There are other systems to watch, however, including a new circulation near Cape Hatteras. And most of the numerical models show a new system in the Gulf of Mexico around August 23-24.
August 23-24 is probably still a bit too early as the active EPAC is essentially reinforcing the Western Ridge. Then the ridge is forcing systems coming out of the North Pacific up and over the top resulting in a large Eastern Trough and North Atlantic wave breaking and that setup produces shear over the Gulf and shear/dry air over the Atlantic.
It will take a bit of time for the convective activity over the EPAC to transition to the Atlantic and for the hostile pattern to relax. Still thinking late August to early September is when the switch gets thrown for the Atlantic. However, as we have seen all season, it wouldn't be surprising for the Atlantic to eek out another weak system or two before things get dangerously favorable.
The Day 10 - 15 Euro EPS is starting to pickup on the changes across the Atlantic and now has a number of more powerful members. The good, it is still mostly random model noise and not yet focusing in on any individual systems.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 7:11 pm to rds dc
Lol at the token cat 4 straight into NOLA
Posted on 8/15/20 at 7:16 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Lol at the token cat 4 straight into NOLA
Exactly..
Posted on 8/15/20 at 7:29 pm to rds dc
Recon not really finding much left of Josephine.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 8:23 pm to rds dc
What is AWB ?
Posted on 8/15/20 at 8:39 pm to Klingler7
Accumulated cyclone energy
Basically all the storms of this season put together prob dont equal Katrina
Basically all the storms of this season put together prob dont equal Katrina
Posted on 8/15/20 at 8:47 pm to rds dc
Lol two more bullshite wasted name storms.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 8:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
and lowest ACE observed through storm K.
That might change now
This post was edited on 8/28/20 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 8/16/20 at 9:41 am to rds dc
NHC is tracking two new areas as Josephine and Kyle are reaching the end of the road.
The 00z Euro EPS has a more coherent signal than previous runs for something moving into the Gulf beyond Day 10.
The 00z ensembles are in pretty good agreement that we will start to see the pattern flip during the last week of August and the East Coast trough will begin to lift out. This could allow for conditions across the Caribbean and Gulf to become less hostile.
Ensembles are also seeing a pretty stout Atlantic ridge (yellow area pushing over Florida) that would generally steer systems westward vs. a weakness pulling them north.
Also, this pattern shift is showing up in the PNA teleconnection.
There are still differences in how the models handle things with the GFS cranking out an additional EPAC system (typically means unfavorable conditions in the WCAB and Gulf) but the Euro doesn't have this EPAC system. This will be something to watch as we try to pin down when the Atlantic will really fire up.
The 00z Euro EPS has a more coherent signal than previous runs for something moving into the Gulf beyond Day 10.
The 00z ensembles are in pretty good agreement that we will start to see the pattern flip during the last week of August and the East Coast trough will begin to lift out. This could allow for conditions across the Caribbean and Gulf to become less hostile.
Ensembles are also seeing a pretty stout Atlantic ridge (yellow area pushing over Florida) that would generally steer systems westward vs. a weakness pulling them north.
Also, this pattern shift is showing up in the PNA teleconnection.
There are still differences in how the models handle things with the GFS cranking out an additional EPAC system (typically means unfavorable conditions in the WCAB and Gulf) but the Euro doesn't have this EPAC system. This will be something to watch as we try to pin down when the Atlantic will really fire up.
Posted on 8/16/20 at 10:53 am to Klingler7
quote:
What is AWB ?
Anticyclonic Wave Break I think.
Posted on 8/16/20 at 2:01 pm to rds dc
Okay experts...tell us what you think...Euro and GFS with 'something' in Gulf in 8 to 10 days...???
Euro
GFS
Euro
GFS
Posted on 8/16/20 at 2:11 pm to rds dc
BOOOO!
Posted on 8/16/20 at 2:11 pm to NorthEndZone
Looking at the runs it looks like the GFS is the wave near the Lesser Antilles. The Euro is the wave that just came off Africa, I think anyway. Euro brings the wave near the Lesser Antilles inot the Gulf in about 6 to 7 days but brings it into Northen Mexico.
This post was edited on 8/16/20 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 8/16/20 at 2:17 pm to lsuman25
Not even gonna show the CMC run.
Posted on 8/16/20 at 3:01 pm to NorthEndZone
The take away is there's a decent chance something will be in the gulf in 8-10 days.
In general a track bias toward the western gulf but details are fuzzy at this point. There's questions that rds explained well about shear and how the steering in the Atlantic eventually evolves.
In general a track bias toward the western gulf but details are fuzzy at this point. There's questions that rds explained well about shear and how the steering in the Atlantic eventually evolves.
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