re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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anything west of Opelousas is going to be fine

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Que?

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Yes. I have a vivid memory of you complaining about schools closing before the apocalyptic flood in 2016

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That's impressive. I don't recall what I said. I'm flattered. I'm way over in St.Tammany, so I probably did. But it's 2020 so once every so often isn't life consuming.

I have a good memory

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SE LA is good, anything west of Opelousas is going to be fine, stay safe

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Not sure if intentional, but I’ll allow it.

So do I. I can remember all sorts of posts from others from a decade ago. I just don't recall all of the foolishness I post.

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anything west of Opelousas is going to be fine, stay safe

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Man I hope you're right

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Meanwhile the NAM 3KM is still having an aneurysm

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We don't use the goddamn NAM for hurricanes.

So the rundown has Euro coming in along a tight GFS ensemble cluster. Waiting for the EPS results to show up. UKMet is Galveston. GFS is basically NHC forecast.

GFS still appeared weak with the ridge, but much better than yesterday. Euro initialized pretty much correct as far as I can tell.



GFS Para ensembles also clustered with the GFS ensembles and falling in line with the idea of Cameron to Galveston as the range. Some outliers but that's why we have ensembles, to see the outlier scenarios. Those aren't likely though.

Intensity is slow to ramp up for the first 18 hours or so on all of them and picks up quickly approaching landfall before leveling off. The Euro is actually the most aggressive, likely in part to being slightly south of the trough that will bring the shear at the end until right before landfall. HWRF intensity makes sense though with the way it evolves the core of the system.

Generally looking for a solid 3 with a 4 if it overachieves.



Laura's north end has improved in presentation this afternoon. Unfortunately has that kind of hook shape of a storm starting to wind up. Looking at WV, outflow is starting to expand on the north side too. Shear dropping some and Laura is working on organization now.





Still a ways to go before it fully wraps up but there's a good core band setting up to be wrapped fully around to establish the CDO. Expecting slow strengthening for now.

To your point in the graphic, somehow Laura would have to go south west to hit the far left/west edge of the current path by its next advisory.

That's a center reformation IMO. The overall hurricane is still moving right along WNW as the NHC claims. Connect the center position before that reformation to the forecast track and it seems to still be on the overall general WNW heading. Check out the yellow line.

Now, if that NNW "motion" continues and turns into actual "motion" then lookout Vermillion Bay.