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Started By
Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:38 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:38 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Am I living in a fricking fantasy world here or something? I swear, some of you really need to pay attention once in a while.
The models did a pretty solid job resolving Marco once the center formed.
0
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:38 am to SLafourche07
quote:
Some of my friends have a hunting camp out behind Galliano and they’re live streaming their security cameras. They said as long as they don’t get 5 ft of water their equipment should stay dry.
They should paint that shed/structure blue.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:39 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
I’m sure you know more than everyone else
I don't nor did I suggest I did.
"I think" meaning just my opinion, no need to be such a bitch about it...
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:40 am to tiger91
quote:
They should paint that shed/structure blue.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
Lots of talk on other sites and on twitter by Mets that UKmet has been best performing so far and has Laura going way west along with latest euro ensembles
The UK has been right for mostly the wrong reasons. The EPS did shift slightly but the thinking hasn't changed since yesterday, stronger system is going to take a more western trek.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to SLafourche07
quote:
Some of my friends have a hunting camp out behind Galliano and they’re live streaming their security cameras. They said as long as they don’t get 5 ft of water their equipment should stay dry.
I see a lot of future floatsom there.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to TDsngumbo
I was wrong, misremembered. I'll shut up now and go back to memeing
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Doesn’t he always wishcast for a major into SELA?
Yes, yes he does.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to OneSaintsFan
quote:he literally once said "If you do not evacuate, you will die"
I wouldn't say he’s a wishcaster
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:41 am to tigafan4life
Checking my camp camera in BSL just now I see that I forgot to take the USA flag down when prepping yesterday. Rats
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:42 am to Mac
quote:
They should paint that shed/structure blue.
The shed of infamy!
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:43 am to redneck
quote:
Checking my camp camera in BSL just now I see that I forgot to take the USA flag down when prepping yesterday. Rats
I’ve heard a song about that before. Something about the flag still being there and surviving a rough night or something.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:43 am to bee Rye
quote:
he literally once said "If you do not evacuate, you will die"
“If you live below this line”.
frick. That’s me.
Or “there will be NO, ThiboDAUX”
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:44 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
Literally no models have it east of vermillion bay and you have no evidence of what you are saying
If anything they are all trending more west
We’ve been watching models all week. Please tell me when they have been right?
Remember when it was predicted that we’d have two hurricanes in the GOM at one time?
Well we never had two hurricanes at the same time much less two in the Gulf.
It’s been a bad year for the models. I wouldn’t be surprised if Laura hit anywhere from Corpus to NI. It could be anything from a Cat 1 to a 4.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:48 am to rds dc
marco might get ripped apart before it even gets to the louisiana coast
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:48 am to Hulkklogan
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:50 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
Something about the flag still being there and surviving a rough night or something.
This is a Key comment.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:50 am to SLafourche07
That the camp on cut to Bay Sevin?
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:50 am to Capt ST
Nick Mikulas:
quote:
It looks like I can pretty much shift the focus to tropical storm Laura. Marco’s low level circulation is dislodging itself from the mid level circulation this morning, and while it will probably still make landfall in Louisiana later today, it won’t be a huge issue. For our area, it might be a few showers, and a gentle breeze. Don’t let Marco adjust your thinking on how to prepare for Laura. These are two entirely different storms. As of a couple days ago, Marco looked like it wouldn’t be a major issue up here. So this evolution isn’t really a surprise. Models are almost universally showing Laura becoming a big deal, the question his, how big, and where exactly. Let’s get to that now.
Tropical Storm Laura…
LOCATION...20.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Laura has already caused catastrophic flooding across Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, where at least 13 people have reportedly been killed due to flooding. Laura continues to bring heavy rain and gusty wind to parts of Cuba and Jamaica, and is forecast to cross the western side of Cuba overnight tonight. Laura has maintained strength, even with more interaction with mountains overnight. With little land left to disrupt this circulation, it looks like Laura has the better part of 3 days over warm water, with favorable conditions for strengthening. Some light northerly shear kept Laura in check overnight, but that is relaxing, and I see no real impediments beyond some minor land interaction for Laura up until landfall.
So where exactly will Laura go? You might have noticed a bit of a windshield wiper effect on forecasts, and models over the last few days. Tracks have been bouncing between New Orleans and Houston, and last night, nudged back to the west toward Houston. The official NHC forecast, now brings Laura in, as a strong category 2 hurricane over Cameron Parish. The center of the overnight guidance is probably a bit west of that, and a small shift west at 10:00 AM wouldn’t surprise me. I’m talking maybe 20 miles. Nothing that will put us in the clear. It also wouldn’t have much of an impact on my thought process for local issues. As of right now, those issues look significant, and the best analog I have to describe them would be Rita if this current forecast comes to fruition. I’ll put out parish by parish rain/wind numbers tonight, but assuming a 105-110 mph storm moving at 10-14 mph at landfall, I’d expect hurricane force wind gusts to be felt at least 120-150 miles inland near, and just east of the center. A stronger storm could mean this would extend further inland. Power outages will be widespread, and potentially lengthy, along, and within 50 miles of the center, assuming a strength of strong category 2 or greater. Rainfall totals will probably be fairly manageable for a hurricane, with 4-8 inches likely over a large area. The fast spreed will spread wind further inland, but will probably mean this storm only has 8-12 hours to rain over one area. So that’s a small bit of good news. This does look like an overnight landfall, with the worst impacts locally starting Wednesday night after midnight, and moving out by Thursday afternoon.
I’ll update things this afternoon, and will post the updated track forecast at 10:00. I just wanted to get something out there this morning. I’ll add the current Marco stats at the end, but our focus is on Laura.
Tropical Storm Marco..
LOCATION...28.1N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:51 am to lsutiger2010
quote:
3 days ago, they had Marco going into Texas
Initially it was going over the Yucatán and into the GOM then to Texas. It missed the Yucatán the next day, shot through the channel and strengthened. It may hit Texas now, but not via the path initially predicted. Models were terrible with Marco even after he was named.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 8:54 am
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