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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:26 am to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50831 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:26 am to
I’m not the one making bold predictions that literally are the opposite of what the NHC and many guidance models are showing.

NHC shows a landfall not far from the scenario you said was 99% not happening. Many models (and some Mets) are indicating the possibility for a major at landfall. The scenario you said wasn’t happening is actually quite possible according to the professionals.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 8:28 am
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:28 am to
They whiffed on intensity at landfall but not really on his track, and track is what I'm discussing.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 8:30 am
Posted by OneSaintsFan
St. George, La
Member since Jan 2009
1917 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:28 am to
I wouldn't say he’s a wishcaster . I’ve always put more stock in Bob than most. He’s retired now and does this on the side.

Maybe not though, just know he has seen a lot over the years.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 8:29 am
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43297 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:29 am to
That should illustrate that impacts will be felt far from where the center moves ashore.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 8:30 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50831 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:30 am to
quote:

They whiffed on intensity at landfall but not his track, and track is what I'm discussing.

You are 100% high, drunk, blind, or all of the above.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43465 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:30 am to
Dumb question, but can we see how far west the Bermuda High has pushed in if we watch Marco's mid level circulation heading to Floribama?
Posted by Bulletproof Lover
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
1900 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:31 am to
The Baton Rouge area won't be safe until noon on Wednesday. Anything could happen before then.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:31 am to
. Maybe I'm misremembering. But as far as I can remember the last 3-5 days they've had his track pretty close.

Guess I need to go back through the thread
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50831 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:31 am to
I’ve always thought he’s a bit of a drama king who wants total destruction.
Posted by SLafourche07
Member since Feb 2008
10054 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:31 am to
YouTube: Camp Melancon

Thought you guys might like this.

Some of my friends have a hunting camp out behind Galliano and they’re live streaming their security cameras. They said as long as they don’t get 5 ft of water their equipment should stay dry.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:31 am to
quote:

the first one is my nightmare but since that scenario is 99.% not happening, I am not worrying.



I would say that HWRF solution is a lot more probable than 1%.
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
56724 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:32 am to
quote:

I’m not the one making bold predictions that literally are the opposite of what the NHC and many guidance models are showing.


Sorry, I didn’t realize NHC was calling for Cat 5 which is what he was referring to

Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6178 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:32 am to
LINK

I’m sure you know more than everyone else
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:33 am to
They got that camera on a motion timer?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:34 am to
quote:

wouldn't say he’s a wishcaster . I’ve always put more stock in Bob than most. He’s retired now and does this on the side.

Maybe not though, just know he has seen a lot over the years.


IIRC, Breck was real wishcasty with one of the recent monsters - Irma, Maria, or Michael.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50831 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:34 am to
Ok since you’re being a little humble here I’ll take it down a notch or two.

Marco was originally supposed to go into central Texas. Then Houston, then suddenly they changed it to NOLA. Then Grand Isle, then Houma. But he kept moving almost due north.

Now, he’s decoupled and finally beginning a bit of a northwestern curve and will probably stay out over the water.

They screwed the pooch with Marco for the most part.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50831 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:34 am to
930mb is not a cat 5.
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:35 am to
quote:

yeah sorry for leaving out context. my family is in San Marcos. Her family is in Ocean Springs

SHTF = a trip to Shreveport, baby!


Some of the models still has it as a category 2 as far up as Shreveport.

Maybe somewhere like Monroe or Jackson if the westerly track holds.
Posted by SLafourche07
Member since Feb 2008
10054 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:35 am to
yeah

They have a weather station on the roof that was reading wind speed and direction but it looks like it cut off in the middle of the night. Not sure what happened.
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11962 posts
Posted on 8/24/20 at 8:37 am to
quote:

Bob Breck
quote:

Doesn’t he always wishcast for a major into SELA?


Ehhh... but he is turrible
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