re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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The earlier it organizes, the more time it will have to take advantage of the conditions over the Gulf. So yeah, a stronger and more organized storm as it exits Cuba would yield a stronger system down the line.

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I understand this but the steering currents still would potentially steer it as the models suggest, no?


I've also seen outliers saying what's left of Marco could settle down in the gulf near Brownsville or possibly not that far south but given the rotation of these systems, that rotation could potentially drive it Laura more north, instead of heading further to the west. I'm just trying to understand why the NHC had Laura heading toward Houston earlier this morning, then the track shifted east to Holly Beach/Cameron, to now even more east. Plus it isn't scheduled to make a landfall for another 2 days. I appreciate your info. I understand no track is set in stone but after going through 3 cat 3s in Florida, I started studying what steers these systems but with this being two, forecast to make landfall within days of each other, it's hard to pinpoint it down. If you get one wrong, it's easy to get the other one wrong. Even Marco's track is still uncertain. It's pretty close to what I think it'll be but it's not definitive. I understand about the high pressure that's supposed to drive Laura west but like I said, they have now changed those tracks. What's your take on that? Really asking.

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I understand about the high pressure that's supposed to drive Laura west but like I said, they have now changed those tracks. What's your take on that?

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You sort of answer your own question earlier. The track is really uncertain because of

A) Questions of organization and location coming into the Gulf.

B) Exact shape of the ridge and how far it pushes in. (This won't make for huge changes but little differences can yield huge impacts for individual communities)

C) Possible Marco leftover interactions

It's complex to the point there's still wide range of possible outcomes. To the point those with far more understanding and experience than I have aren't able to really nail it down.

The NHC path is basically just following their consensus model (basically a weighted average of all the good models' paths). The problem is the envelope of possibilities is so wide still that each run of a model just shows you one of the possible outcomes.

So the NHC path has jumped around some but in reality nothing has changed. New Orleans is still a remote possibility. Corpus Christi is still a remote possibility.

The good thing is Marco is falling apart tonight and should follow the projected path well as a weak TS/TD and eventually an open low that moves west.

Still opens the door for some weird interactions, but that's just one of the questions we still need to answer.

Which is frustrating with a likely major hurricane strike just a few days out and major population centers in the potential path.

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Euro trended back west at the 00z run, back to TX/LA border

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Looks like the EURO jumped (back) on the SWLA train.

Edit: looking at another forum, it looks like this is first time ICON, GFS, CMC, and now the EURO have seemed to have some agreement on Laura's projected path. I guess we'll see if it holds.

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Still opens the door for some weird interactions, but that's just one of the questions we still need to answer.

Which is frustrating with a likely major hurricane strike just a few days out and major population centers in the potential path.

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Thank you. That was my take on it as well. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't completely wrong with my thinking on this. Appreciate your input.

Out In Iowa.

It looks like Marco took a detour to Florida.

Hate that for the LC folks but man I want this to keep up. The 10pm has me shitting bricks.

Marco looks to be a rain maker along the coast.

Damn it