re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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So now wait and see if we are seeing a east trend or if we have another small windshield wiper effect and a correction to the west in the morning

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Models tonight are particularly worthless and all we can do is look at the ensemble spread from 18z and through the night. However, I don't expect we will see much change in the ensembles - a more organized Laura entering the Gulf will strengthen quicker and take a more western track and less organized will take a more eastern track.

If people want to track something tonight then watch Laura trek across or just South of Cuba and that will tell you more about what will happen down the road than any of the operational model runs from tonight.

There is still a bit of northerly shear over the system being induced by a thinning PVS streamer (yellow area over the top of Laura). Also, probably some from the outflow from the convection associated with Marco and the upper level trough. That may also be nudging the ridge over the top stronger as well.



The combo of all of that has favored intense convection to the south of the forecast track and we have seen the LLC continually being tugged south towards that deeper convection.

I don't work for them. I have no idea. I'm just telling you what I was told earlier by someone who works with Entergy. He said they reduced crew sizes and that it would slow restoration and that they were talking if it was bad enough tomorrow they wouldn't push for the majority of customers on until after a second landfall from Laura if it hits. They would obviously work on what they could between but it would be slower and they have a wind limit they can work in due to safety.

I did get a call from Entergy earlier today that even explicitly said for my area the restoration times would be slower so he wasn't lying.

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If people want to track something tonight then watch Laura trek across or just South of Cuba and that will tell you more about what will happen down the road than any of the operational model runs from tonight.

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Yup.

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Laura's COC?

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Without recon this is purely speculation, that is probably the mid-level circulation. The LLC appears to be rolling through Manzanillo. It wouldn't be surprising to see the LLC rotate south under the MLC over the next few hours, given how intense convection is down there.

Can we fly recon flights into storms around Cuba?

Several models trending back west.

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@cyclonicwx
Recent (~1.5 hours old) ASCAT pass over #Laura shows an LLC south of Cuba's southern coast. If it manages to become dominant which seems plausible given the convection further south, it means little further land interaction, & earlier organization, though NE shear will continue

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I'm not sure about the accuracy of ASCAT with that much land around but it wouldn't be surprising. However, look how far off that would be of even the ensembles.

They would have done better dropping them in an arch formation out in the canal. Then seal off the arch. They were dropping them in the strongest current