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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:24 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:24 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Current Situation according to ISW: "Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast.[1] His observations are generally consistent with our analysis.
Boy, some of the drive by posters have some explaining to do.
quote:
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.[3] Russian forces also deployed new conscripts from occupied settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City, likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.[4] Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.[5] Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.[6] Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat."
Well that’s interesting. War must be more unpopular domestically than people thought to be covertly mobilizing. You’d think you’d have far more success overtly having fostered some degree of civilian buy in.
3
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:40 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:Video of them reinstalling a border marker LINK
Phillips P. OBrien Retweeted
Maria Avdeeva
@maria_avdv
·
5h
Beyond words. Today Ukrainian military 227th battalion of the 127th territorial defense brigade reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Glory to Ukraine! ????????
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:42 pm to Centinel
quote:
I look back on when I boarded that flight at Dulles en route to Kuwait City, leaving the US for the first time sixteen years ago, and how I viewed the world...compared to now, having lived in four countries, visited close to thirty, and spent six years working directly with quite a few European and Middle Eastern militaries and civilian populations. To say I was naïve prior to leaving the US, even after a BA and MA in Political Science focusing on Foreign and Security Policy, is an understatement. It's one thing to learn these subjects in an academic setting. It's quite another to live them for a career. My academic learning taught me why this war is so important geopolitically. Having worked with and shared meals with Ukrainians made it hit home at a practical level.
Great post centinel.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:44 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
You’re not exactly wrong. The Russian army is absolute shite according to what we’ve seen. But if every engagement ended with 20 dead Russian tanks on the road then the Russians would have never taken a single piece of ground but they clearly have. So for every ambush video you see on Twitter there’s another where Russian armor overruns Ukrainian defenders.
Per my sourc(s) in the Ukrainian army's their battle plan was divided into phases. Ukraine was getting intel from the west but they did not believe Russia would try an all out attack across the width of eastern Ukraine. They believed that the Russians would try to rush to encircle Kiev and would race out of Crimea to capture the major river crossings. Therefore the first phase of their battle plan was give ground but not letting Russia capture Kiev or Dnipro. That way they could withstand the "shock an awe" of Russia deploying its might down one or two fronts. As long as they kept the Russians out Dnipro they would have open lines of communication and supply to their forces fighting Russia in the Donbas. As long as the Ukrainians kept the Russians out of Kyiv they would have the morale to fight on. They were shocked and pleasantly surprised to find out that the western intel was almost 100% correct and Russia attacking along the width of eastern Ukraine made their jobs easier. Phase two of their battle plan was to rally their forces and fight back. Most of Russia's gains were made within the first two to three weeks of the war which was during phase one while Ukraine was giving ground to protect Kyiv and to figure out how to push the invaders out of the country.
Of course my source(s) are active officer(s) in the Ukrainian army so they are a little biased.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:48 pm to DabosDynasty
Trent Telenko Thread
Ukrainians have disproportionately targeted Russian trucks which has obviously yielded good results by fricking up Russian logistics. Draws direct comparisons to Hitler’s failures, ironically enough, in invading Russia.
Ukrainians have disproportionately targeted Russian trucks which has obviously yielded good results by fricking up Russian logistics. Draws direct comparisons to Hitler’s failures, ironically enough, in invading Russia.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:48 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
War must be more unpopular domestically than people thought to be covertly mobilizing. You’d think you’d have far more success overtly having fostered some degree of civilian buy in.
Legit wonder how the population will take long term occupation if Ukraine is unable to retake its southern territory
From ISW
quote:
Russian forces are likely fortifying occupied settlements in southern Ukraine, indicating that the Russians are seeking to establish permanent control in the region. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces began digging trenches and building concrete revetments in unspecified areas of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast, near Melitopol, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7]
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:50 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Sure. I’ve been rooting for Ukraine this entire war. But my rooting is more rooted in the natural underdog aspect of the war and the fact that I was raised to think killing those red bastards from Moscow was awesome. I hold no love real love or hatred for either country. I’m interested in the war because it’s a major geopolitical event and is worth studying. That’s why I just want un biased reporting on it.
You will only get unbiased reporting on it in 50 years or so when the classified stuff is declassified and historians have spent decades analyzing the subject. If you want something sooner then I suggest you become one of the historians who do the analyzing.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Legit wonder how the population will take long term occupation if Ukraine is unable to retake its southern territory
I am going to bet that the locals take every chance they get to throw the Russian occupiers a (Molotov) cocktail party.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 8:58 pm to WeeWee
quote:
They believed that the Russians would try to rush to encircle Kiev and would race out of Crimea to capture the major river crossings. Therefore the first phase of their battle plan was give ground but not letting Russia capture Kiev or Dnipro. That way they could withstand the "shock an awe" of Russia deploying its might down one or two fronts. As long as they kept the Russians out Dnipro they would have open lines of communication and supply to their forces fighting Russia in the Donbas. As long as the Ukrainians kept the Russians out of Kyiv they would have the morale to fight on. They were shocked and pleasantly surprised to find out that the western intel was almost 100% correct
I have no other explanation for how our intel could be so specifically right here, where it should be far more difficult to be accurate, but so fricking wrong on the Afghanistan withdrawal than Afghanistan was an intentional frick up. Is there a logical explanation to the contrary? We were in Afghanistan 20 years and fricked it up but got this perfect?
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:05 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
I have no other explanation for how our intel could be so specifically right here, where it should be far more difficult to be accurate, but so fricking wrong on the Afghanistan withdrawal than Afghanistan was an intentional frick up. Is there a logical explanation to the contrary? We were in Afghanistan 20 years and fricked it up but got this perfect?
1 We have sources inside the Russian decision loop
2 We've cracked the Russian codes and can read their signal traffic in real time. AFG didn't have codes OR signal traffic
3 They're not western, but they're more western than the Afgans, so easier to get inside their minds.
4 Wishful thinking on AFG
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:24 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Wishful thinking on AFG
This seems like the case.
If Malala is discussed in Afghanistan or Pakistan it seems unlikely that she's viewed as an inspiration
Killing Bin Ladin still seems like a good thing to me but the take home is we can't convert a third world country with incompatible culture, religion, and norms into a western society just by invading and scattering some goats.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:35 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
I have no other explanation for how our intel could be so specifically right here, where it should be far more difficult to be accurate, but so fricking wrong on the Afghanistan withdrawal than Afghanistan was an intentional frick up. Is there a logical explanation to the contrary? We were in Afghanistan 20 years and fricked it up but got this perfect?
Well the fact that the Russians were and still are using unencrypted radios as well as cell phones with Russian sim cards helped a lot. I asked my sauce(s) in the Ukrainian army about that. He said that about 36 hours before the invasion their CO called all the officers together and went over their plans for the invasion. Their CO had been provided satellite pictures of staging areas, and recordings of radio conversations of Russian officers regarding the plans for the invasion. Obviously it was limited and only stuff relevant for their sector but he said they even had recordings of the Russians going over their timeline for the invasion and what roads they were going to be taking. My sauce(s) said that most of the younger officers at the meeting could not believe the Russians would be enough stupid to be going over the timeline for the invasion over a cell phone system and even asked their CO "Ok so we now we know what they are not going to do and where they are not going to attack, how do we figure out what they are actually going to do?" According to my sauce it was not until less than 6 hours before the bombardment and invasion began that they started to believe the information was accurate. My sauce(s) said “It was only when were listening to the Russian radio chatter and their artillery was getting ready and targeting the GPS locations that we were sitting on, and that whenever the Russians changed frequencies they changed to a frequency that was given to us by our intelligence people. That was when we started to believe that we were listening to real thing and not a Russian disinformation campaign so we moved our tanks. When we heard the Russian artillery spotters give updates on their positions changes, we stopped doubting and knew the intel was real. We were able to use that to our advantage and survive the opening bombardment without a single tank getting a scratch or a soldier being killed. After that when they started collecting POWs they took the cell phones from them and sure enough the numbers matched the ones they were given by western intel.”
So I don't think it was because the western intel agencies all of sudden got it all together it was that Russia was either stupid enough to use unencrypted radios and cell phones (without even bothering to use burner phones) or were forced to use them because their encrypted comms gear did not work. From what I have read the Taliban at least knew to use cell phones sparingly and to use encryption apps when they did use them.
This post was edited on 5/15/22 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:41 pm to WeeWee
Good lord. Who knew an arse-backwards country living in caves were smarter than a supposed super power?
This post was edited on 5/15/22 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:41 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
2 We've cracked the Russian codes and can read their signal traffic in real time. AFG didn't have codes OR signal traffic
They are using unencrypted radios that use the same channels as Ukraine's pre-2014 radios and not even bothering to use codes in their communications. The Ukrainians all speak Russian so they are actually listening in real time.
quote:
They're not western, but they're more western than the Afgans, so easier to get inside their minds.
Especially for the Ukrainians who understand how Russians think better than we do and read and speak Russian so there is no delay in trying to translate the intel.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 9:57 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Good lord. Who knew an arse-backwards country living in caves were smarter than a supposed super power?
That is the key word.
That is just the start of it. Per my sauce(s) the Ukrainian intelligence people are tracking Russian units by following soldiers' cell phones. The Russian soldiers are not turning their phones off and even worse they are connecting to cell networks whose HQs are in Kyiv.
Ukraine does not even have to bother reading the texts or listening to the conversations if they do not want to. They just monitor the cell phone networks and when a bunch of phone with the country code (+7) start moving from one tower to another they know that the Russians are moving and which direction they are moving in with just a few seconds delay.Posted on 5/15/22 at 10:07 pm to WeeWee
quote:
BREAKING: #Putin has opted for a surgical "silent" mobilization by conscripting those with prior military experience. Those who wouldn't normally be called up first - people in 30s and 40s. General mobilization is out of the question. Will provide more details in the coming days.
5:50 PM · May 15, 2022·Twitter for Android
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Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
·
4h
Replying to
@igorsushko
SOURCE: Direct from an insider on the ground in #Moscow, #Russia. The specifics & structure of this plan will be published as soon as we can.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 10:11 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Putin has opted for a surgical "silent" mobilization by conscripting those with prior military experience. Those who wouldn't normally be called up first - people in 30s and 40s. General mobilization is out of the question.
Talk about the definition of too little too late.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 10:13 pm to WeeWee
Bloomberg - EU advising member states of work around to Russian sanctions on O&G
Tweets form how I saw the article to begin with and got curious to scan the account:
Interesting. I was wondering how the lights were still on in Germany and it may be driving a wedge in NATO/EU. Finland on its way in already being cut off, Poland cut off, but Germany & France are trying to help other get around the sanctions.
Tweets form how I saw the article to begin with and got curious to scan the account:
Interesting. I was wondering how the lights were still on in Germany and it may be driving a wedge in NATO/EU. Finland on its way in already being cut off, Poland cut off, but Germany & France are trying to help other get around the sanctions.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 10:19 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Video of them reinstalling a border marker
The crazy-arse Ukies are taking selfies next to the border post during a war. It’s like the do not respect the Russian forces enough to worry about sniper fire during their photo shoot.
Posted on 5/15/22 at 10:24 pm to WeeWee
Why does it feel like this thread went from be an informative source about the war to a politard troll cesspool? I guess their thread wasn’t getting enough action or something.
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