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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:18 pm to
Posted by LeClerc
USVI
Member since Oct 2012
2841 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:18 pm to
Well if he’s going to keep posting informative statements here he should link his sources like everyone else.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

A Russian T-90M turret on a Whirlpool spin cycle chip might be an upgrade...



Until the crew got sick and puked all over the place. Now a T-14 with a unmanned turret on spin cycle would be fresh.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:24 pm to
quote:

The crossing was talked about in the Ukrainian General Staff daily updates on social media.



You know the rules of TD, don't you?

1. Post pics if you mention your wife, girlfriend, daughter (if she is over 18), or any other female over the age of 18.

2. Link your sauces if they are public sauces.

3. Don't make fun of Chicken and his weird fetish for Hillary Clinton's cankles.

So obey the rules and post your links biotch!
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:30 pm to
quote:

Yes and no. Finland has been trying to shift away from O&G but it has not finished the job yet. Finland has reduced its reliance on natural gas from 20% to 10%. It will reduce its electrical production from natural gas even more when its 5th nuclear reactor is fully operational in September. It's plan for completely weaning off of natural gas is dependent on completion of it's 6th and 7th nuclear reactors which would be built in a new nuclear power plant. That is a problem because Rosatom owns 33% of that power plant and was the company that was supposed to build it. Finland cancelled the contract in February but the status of the plant is still up in the air.

Finland is also still dependent on petroleum based fuels for its vehicles (even though roughly 20% of the vehicles in the country are EVs) and Russia was its main supplier. Russia cutting O&G to Finland is going to hurt Finland but I think they prefer higher gas and utility prices to being vulnerable to the whims of the mad dictator next door.


Finland and Estonia partnered on a floating LNG terminal that, I think, eliminates their need for Russian gas completely. Comes online in October so there’s a gap to fill, but I guess not terrible.

On nuclear, with France’s nuclear policy and plan to export smaller reactors in the next few years I’d imagine a French company would pick up that partnership quickly to resume construction for Finland. At least I would hope.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

Finland and Estonia partnered on a floating LNG terminal that, I think, eliminates their need for Russian gas completely. Comes online in October so there’s a gap to fill, but I guess not terrible.


Yes but the LNG market is tight. There might not be enough LNG to go around. It's also not operation until October and most countries have 90 days or less worth of gas in reserve.

quote:

On nuclear, with France’s nuclear policy and plan to export smaller reactors in the next few years I’d imagine a French company would pick up that partnership quickly to resume construction for Finland. At least I would hope.


Russia beat out France and Japan to win the contract in 2013. Constructions was supposed to start in 2023 and the plant's first reactor to be operational in 2029. Nuclear plants are not like houses where one contractor can pick up where another one stopped after being fired. The reactors are not the same which means everything that goes with them is not the same. The cancellation of the contract with Rosatom means that it's back to the drawing board and the bidding process. It will be a minimum of a 5 year setback.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 6:51 pm to
That sucks. Amazes me they chose a Russian state owned partner over an EU partner. These countries have spent centuries fearing Russian aggression and still tied their energy policy to them to a very high degree. Diversity.
Posted by Mr Happy
Member since May 2019
2756 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:07 pm to
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:10 pm to
quote:

Amazes me they chose a Russian state owned partner over an EU partner


If you read their media, the Finns don’t like or trust the West much more than they do Russia. They would prefer to do business with both and not favor either.

Russia forced their hand by invading Ukraine and the Finns decided to hold their noses and join NATO. They really don’t care for the US. They think we’re as aggressive as is Russia.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150587 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

Russia forced their hand by invading Ukraine and the Finns decided to hold their noses and join NATO. They really don’t care for the US. They think we’re as aggressive as is Russia.

maybe im wrong and the polilng and whatnot doesnt paint a true picture but it seems like this has largely changed and that they arent holding their noses and joining NATO with a mistrust of the west and the US but enthusiastically doing joining and understanding where we were coming from with NATO largely due to their perception of the world and perceived european stability has been shattered
This post was edited on 5/12/22 at 7:17 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

If you read their media, the Finns don’t like or trust the West much more than they do Russia. They would prefer to do business with both and not favor either.


Doesn’t appear they did that very well if most of their O&G came from Russia and they still chose Russia for nuclear help. Why not choose France for the nuclear and do business with both? I also meant Europe as a whole too, Germany for example is much more reliant on Russian energy than Finland or France.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:18 pm to
quote:

That sucks. Amazes me they chose a Russian state owned partner over an EU partner. These countries have spent centuries fearing Russian aggression and still tied their energy policy to them to a very high degree. Diversity.



It is not surprising. Until 2014, Finland's approach to neutrality was to place nice with everyone. Finland's railroads are in Russian gauge and 2 of its 4 active nuclear reactors are Russian reactors. It's Army's main assault rifle uses the Russian 7.62 x 39 mm cartridge and roughly half their artillery is Russian/USSR made. The other half of their artillery as well as their armor and air force is composed of western made stuff.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
24333 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:33 pm to
quote:

The reactors are not the same which means everything that goes with them is not the same. The cancellation of the contract with Rosatom means that it's back to the drawing board and the bidding process. It will be a minimum of a 5 year setback.

You'd think France would have some "off the shelf" plans for nuclear reactors. It makes no sense to make a unique plant with every build. And France will increasingly be building nuke plants in other European countries until other countries decide they need to design and build their own stuff.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t appear they did that very well if most of their O&G came from Russia and they still chose Russia for nuclear help. Why not choose France for the nuclear and do business with both? I also meant Europe as a whole too, Germany for example is much more reliant on Russian energy than Finland or France.


1. Look at how close Finland is to Russia. Doesn't it make more sense to buy from your energy rich neighbor than from other sources.

2. The contract for Finland's 6th and 7th nuclear reactors were awarded 9 years ago. Back in 2013 the liberal global elites thought Russia still wanted to play nice with the world.

3. The Russian AES2006 reactor has a construction cost of $1200 per kW hour and construction timeline of 54 months. That was the cheapest and fastest build. Finland's 5th reactor is being built by the a joint venture between French company Areva and the German company Siemans is currently 12 years behind schedule and 8 billion euros over budget. Areva-Siemans was the French company that bid on the 6th and 7th reactors in 2013 but at that point they were already 3 years behind schedule and 4 billion euros over budget on Finland's 5th nuclear reactor. So you can see why Finland did not want to to build two more reactors with them back in 2013.

4. Finland did not start changing its world view until recently. Even as recently as last year, most Finish citizens were against joining NATO. It took Russia invading Ukraine to finally get Finland to get off the neutrality fence.
This post was edited on 5/12/22 at 7:52 pm
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
24333 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

1. Look at how close Finland is to Russia. Doesn't it make more sense to buy from your energy rich neighbor than from other sources.

It does until the neighbor starts to blackmail you with bad outcomes if you don't tow the line.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

1. Look at how close Finland is to Russia. Doesn't it make more sense to buy from your energy rich neighbor than from other sources.

It does until the neighbor starts to blackmail you with bad outcomes if you don't tow the line.



Well Russia did not start doing that until recently (i.e. within the last 8 years). Finland and Estonia did not finalize their LNG terminal partnership until 2020.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:50 pm to
quote:

You'd think France would have some "off the shelf" plans for nuclear reactors. It makes no sense to make a unique plant with every build. And France will increasingly be building nuke plants in other European countries until other countries decide they need to design and build their own stuff.



Like I said above. The last time Finland chose a French reactor the project ran massively behind schedule and over budget. That reactor was going into an existing nuclear power plant. The 6th and 7th reactors were to be built at a new power plant site so it would be even more complex.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 7:56 pm to
quote:

Well Russia did not start doing that until recently (i.e. within the last 8 years). Finland and Estonia did not finalize their LNG terminal partnership until 2020.


Historically speaking, they generally always start it. It’s not new.
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8683 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 8:13 pm to
quote:

don’t want to derail but I always wonder why Iraq is linked in with Afghanistan in terms of a war we “lost.” I’ll be the first to say it to wasn’t worth it, but we accomplished all our objectives including the whole nation building thing.


Correct. We won in Iraq or, at least, it was more of a victory than a defeat. It was a hell of a lot costlier than anyone ever expected, and we had to go back in a second time, but it was a hard won, painful, grey W. Like scoring at the end of the night but she’s a bit hefty and steals your sweatshirt in the morning.

We had no real moral justification to go into Iraq, and we should’ve never been there. We had as justified, strong, and clear of purpose to go into Afghanistan as there will ever be in a modern war. Yet the latter was a fairly clear strategic defeat and the former more a victory than not. Go figure.

It’s more about the bones of the society you’re working with than what we do as a country, hence it should be more “nation re-building” rather than nation building. Japan and Germany were highly developed world powers before the war; it didn’t take a ton to get them back on track. Iraq was reasonably developed and mostly literate before 2003. Afghanistan was in the 10th century.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45821 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 8:29 pm to
Alright folks lets get back to laughing at Russia's ineptness.

quote:

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
·
11h
This map was direct messaged to me and was taken from a forum. It is a heat map of Russian SIM cards roaming Ukrainian cellphone networks. Logistics Thread??

This is symbolic of several things.

1. Why you have to take away cellphones from your troops before battle.
1/

LINK

That is not a map of cellphones that Russian troops stole from Ukraine and are using. That is a map of cellphones with Russian calling codes (+7) using Ukraine's cellular networks. Talk about making it easy for Ukraine to track your movements.
Posted by Shaken not Stirred
Member since Jun 2020
576 posts
Posted on 5/12/22 at 8:30 pm to
quote:

Finns decided to hold their noses and join NATO.
quote:

They really don’t care for the US. They think we’re as aggressive as is Russia.


Never got over our boys whipping dat azz for the gold medal in hockey back in the 80' Olympics
This post was edited on 5/12/22 at 8:34 pm
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