- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:44 am to TacoNash
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:44 am to TacoNash
quote:
Most analysts are predicting Russias GDP to shrink by 10-15% and inflation to rise about 25% year-on-year.
And if Putin wasn't an evil Autocrat, and the Russians were Americans that could vote for something different this would all be very damaging
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:47 am to TacoNash
quote:
Idrees Ali @idreesali114 Russian forces have completed their withdrawal from near Kyiv, a senior U.S. defense official says.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:53 am to TacoNash
I am fairly ignorant on the matter and I am pretty sure other in here are probably pretty well informed on what happened in Georgia, but I believe there are some key differences between Georgia and Ukraine. Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 10:56 am
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:03 am to TacoNash
quote:
Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali
Not that I remember, but I’ll accept a correction.
I think the Georgians were just overconfident, and they gambled they could take South Ossetia before the Russians could get there.
The Russians were conducting a training exercise on the other side of the mountain though. Which blew the whole thing up. It was never going to work.
I’ve never looked into it, but I assume the Russians exercise was scheduled because of the uptick Georgian activity. They probably had specific intelligence.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:06 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
To add to the above, I don’t recall anywhere near the public & governmental show of support (emotions, not financial/equipment) for Georgia in 2008.
ummm
From Wikipedia
quote:
United States – US president George W. Bush said on late 11 August, "Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century." Bush also said, "There’s evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city." Bush urged Russia to sign the EU-mediated ceasefire agreement, otherwise Russia would "jeopardise" its standing with the West.[314] Although the Bush administration contemplated a military reaction to defend Georgia, it decided against it so as to not provoke a conflict with Russia. Instead, the US sent humanitarian assistance to Georgia on military aircraft.[315]
And once those air craft were in Georgia, they didn't take off effectively stopping the Russian advance for fear of getting the US involved:
quote:
In August 2008, as Russian tanks advanced through Georgia’s sovereign territory and headed toward the capital, Tbilisi, President George W. Bush announced that he was mounting a U.S. military airlift to Georgia under the banner of “humanitarian assistance.” Those U.S. Air Force planes, once on the ground in Tbilisi, never took off again. If Vladimir Putin wanted to take Tbilisi, he was going to have to go through the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to help secure a truce. This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.
Washington Post (sorry it's paywalled)
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:08 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
And if Putin wasn't an evil Autocrat, and the Russians were Americans that could vote for something different this would all be very damaging
You're right...North Korea hasn't had any damaging things done to them by sanctions
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:15 am to TacoNash
quote:
I am fairly ignorant on the matter and I am pretty sure other in here are probably pretty well informed on what happened in Georgia, but I believe there are some key differences between Georgia and Ukraine. Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali
One key difference between these two conflicts is that each side had less that 200 military deaths for the duration of the conflict.
From Wikipedia (which I'm actively reading now):
quote:
On 1 August 2008, the Russian-backed South Ossetian forces started shelling Georgian villages, with a sporadic response from Georgian peacekeepers in the area.[32][33][34][35][36] Intensifying artillery attacks by the South Ossetians broke a 1992 ceasefire agreement.[37][38][39][40] To put an end to these attacks, the Georgian army units were sent in to the South Ossetian conflict zone on 7 August.[41] Georgian troops took control of most of Tskhinvali, a separatist stronghold, in hours.
Some Russian troops had illicitly crossed the Russo-Georgian state border through the Roki Tunnel and advanced into the South Ossetian conflict zone by 7 August before the large-scale Georgian military response.[note 4][39][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] Russia accused Georgia of an "aggression against South Ossetia",[41] and launched a full-scale land, air and sea invasion of Georgia, including its undisputed territory, on 8 August, referring to it as a "peace enforcement" operation.[49] Russian and South Ossetian forces fought Georgian forces in and around South Ossetia for several days, until Georgian forces retreated. Russian and Abkhaz forces opened a second front by attacking the Kodori Gorge held by Georgia. Russian naval forces blockaded part of the Georgian Black Sea coastline. The Russian air force attacked targets both within and beyond the conflict zone. This was the first war in history in which cyber warfare coincided with military action. An information war was also waged during and after the conflict. Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France, personally negotiated a ceasefire agreement on 12 August.
This reads eerily similar to what Russia is claiming and hoping to do with Donbas/Crimea.
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 11:16 am
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:18 am to wutangfinancial
What’s the purchasing power parity of the ruple now vs. pre-war? Russia has decoupled itself from the global market so it’s hard to tell apples to apples on just the currency market. The same issue arose comparing the Soviet economy to the west.
If a loaf of bread went from costing 1% of weekly income to 5% of weekly income that would be telling.
If a loaf of bread went from costing 1% of weekly income to 5% of weekly income that would be telling.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:29 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.
Except later they started using borderization tactics to keep pushing out further and gained access to a Soviet built pipeline that passed through Georgia in the process.
quote:
The process – erecting borders between Russian-occupied territories and Georgia proper – was called "borderization". The "borderization" process also involved a gradual advance of the occupation line inside Georgia by grabbing small chunks of Georgian-held terrain to enlarge the Russian-held territory, placing it nominally under South Ossetian administration
On 2 August 2009, Russian troops reportedly moved the South Ossetian boundary markers about 500 metres (0.3 mi) into the Georgian-controlled territory in the village of Kveshi. However, on 4 August the Russians removed the iron posts they had installed earlier in Kveshi. The demarcation of the South Ossetian boundary in Shida Kartli started in 2011 with the construction of a few fences in Ditsi and Dvani, but it was stopped after local negotiations
The process of border demarcation continued in February 2013. Russian troops started the installation of barbed wire barriers to separate the South Ossetian territory from the rest of Georgia.In some instances, the Georgian residents could not access their plots or come out of their homes because the border of barbed wire runs through or around their property…
In September 2013, it was suggested that the continuation of "borderization" would place 1,600 metres (1 mi) of Baku–Supsa oil pipeline beyond the occupation line.
In mid-April 2014, two portions of Baku-Supsa pipeline reportedly appeared on the Russian-controlled territories near the villages of Orchosani and Karapili. As of late July 2014, Russian forces were still constructing "security fence" across South Ossetia.
Green border signs claiming "state border" started to appear for the first time in 2015 along the imaginary administrative boundary line and since then have been moved further into Georgian territory on several occasions.
In July 2017, it was reported that Russia again moved its fences and border signs several hundred meters deeper into Georgian territory.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Georgia
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:37 am to StormyMcMan
Thanks for making my point for me that non-economic actors are unaffected by economic sanctions. Didn't mean to interupt the circle jerk continue on 
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:54 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
ummm
From Wikipedia
quote: United States – US president George W. Bush said on late 11 August, "Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century." Bush also said, "There’s evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city." Bush urged Russia to sign the EU-mediated ceasefire agreement, otherwise Russia would "jeopardise" its standing with the West.[314] Although the Bush administration contemplated a military reaction to defend Georgia, it decided against it so as to not provoke a conflict with Russia. Instead, the US sent humanitarian assistance to Georgia on military aircraft.[315]
And once those air craft were in Georgia, they didn't take off effectively stopping the Russian advance for fear of getting the US involved:
quote: In August 2008, as Russian tanks advanced through Georgia’s sovereign territory and headed toward the capital, Tbilisi, President George W. Bush announced that he was mounting a U.S. military airlift to Georgia under the banner of “humanitarian assistance.” Those U.S. Air Force planes, once on the ground in Tbilisi, never took off again. If Vladimir Putin wanted to take Tbilisi, he was going to have to go through the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to help secure a truce. This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.
None of that refutes my assertion on emotional campaigning on behalf of the media and govt. I even noted “not financial/equipment” for govt.
There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:01 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:There's a few important contextual differences that I think may explain why there's a difference in attitude. For one, the US had two ongoing wars at that time. Enough problems of our own to worry about. Second, Ukraine has been in the US news for the last 8 years. Georgia was never in the news before the Russian invasion. There was a lack of familiarity with the country. Third, I don't think there was much of a build up to it, at least not in western media. With the invasion of Ukraine, we had the US government blitzing the media with intelligence, warning that an invasion was imminent. I don't think that happened with Georgia. Fourth, the war lasted less than 2 weeks and the scale was much, much smaller.
There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:05 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
None of that refutes my assertion on emotional campaigning on behalf of the media and govt. I even noted “not financial/equipment” for govt.
There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.
Two reasons why. In 2008, Social Media was still in its early stages and is nothing compared to its size and reach now. 2. Americans just care more about what happens in Europe versus places in Central Asia or Africa.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:09 pm to SoonerK
Ukraine as a whole is about 10 times the population of Georgia or Crimea, both of whom have a population smaller than Louisiana.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:16 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
If you believe Putin is some low IQ despot lashing out for no reason you’re a fool. He’s probably the best player out of the world power leaders
I mean he amassed a $630 billion war chest anticipating sanctions, and then left half of it parked in Western banks as his troops rolled into Ukraine. Is that the move of a low IQ despot or the "best player out of world power leaders"?
Reuters - reserves frozen
quote:
. . . The sanctions froze around $300 billion of Russia's $640-billion gold and forex reserves, its finance ministry said earlier in March. . . .
NYT - Cites to where reserves were kept
quote:
. . . Putin saved up over $600 billion in gold, foreign government bonds and foreign currency, earned from all of Russia’s energy and mineral exports, precisely so he would have a cushion if he were sanctioned by the West. But Putin apparently forgot that in today’s wired world, as is standard practice, his government had deposited most of it in the banks of Western countries and China.
According to the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, the top six nations where Russian central bank foreign currency assets are stowed by percentage are: China, 17.7 percent; France, 15.6 percent; Japan, 12.8 percent; Germany, 12.2 percent; U.S., 8.5 percent; and Britain, 5.8 percent. Also, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund have 6.4 percent.
Each of these countries, except China, has now frozen the Russian reserves it is holding — so around $330 billion is inaccessible to Putin, according to the Atlantic Council’s tracker. But not only can the Russian state not touch those reserves to prop up its crumbling economy, there will be a huge global push to tap this money to pay reparations to rebuild the Ukrainian homes, apartment buildings, roads and government structures the Russian Army destroyed in Putin’s war of choice.
. . .
Russia's GDP is around 1.48 trillion, so that $300 billion or so amounts to around 20% of a year's GDP frozen because of that blunder.
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:20 pm to Hog on the Hill
quote:
There's a few important contextual differences that I think may explain why there's a difference in attitude. For one, the US had two ongoing wars at that time. Enough problems of our own to worry about. Second, Ukraine has been in the US news for the last 8 years. Georgia was never in the news before the Russian invasion. There was a lack of familiarity with the country. Third, I don't think there was much of a build up to it, at least not in western media. With the invasion of Ukraine, we had the US government blitzing the media with intelligence, warning that an invasion was imminent. I don't think that happened with Georgia. Fourth, the war lasted less than 2 weeks and the scale was much, much smaller.
I would counter that with we still have our own domestic problems with the economy and inflation, as well as 6 straight years of severe political turmoil, really you could add Obama’s 8 years to that in the opposite direction as well. I’ll give you were not fighting the same two wars now so there’s less military conflict for our focus.
Your point about Ukraine being in the news for 8 years was one of my points as well. The media has been invested in both Russia as the boogeyman and Ukraine for years at this point.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:21 pm to SoonerK
quote:
Two reasons why. In 2008, Social Media was still in its early stages and is nothing compared to its size and reach now. 2. Americans just care more about what happens in Europe versus places in Central Asia or Africa.
Two good points and I agree. I agree Americans care more about Europe than Central Asia or Africa, which is also part of the point of the media slant in coverage and relation to their revenues.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:39 pm to SoonerK
We were still hyperfocused on Middle East terrorism at the time as well.
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:43 pm to Coleridge
Believing that crushing Russia's economy from nothing to more nothingness is worth the political risks of those policies is very shortsided
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:59 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
A video posted online on Monday and verified by The Times appears to show Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv on or around March 30, as the Russians were withdrawing. I'll thread some findings here:
LInk to the article
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 1:01 pm
Popular
Back to top


2



