Started By
Message

re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:44 am to
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11965 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Most analysts are predicting Russias GDP to shrink by 10-15% and inflation to rise about 25% year-on-year.



And if Putin wasn't an evil Autocrat, and the Russians were Americans that could vote for something different this would all be very damaging
Posted by TacoNash
Member since Mar 2020
715 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Idrees Ali @idreesali114 Russian forces have completed their withdrawal from near Kyiv, a senior U.S. defense official says.
Posted by TacoNash
Member since Mar 2020
715 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 10:53 am to
I am fairly ignorant on the matter and I am pretty sure other in here are probably pretty well informed on what happened in Georgia, but I believe there are some key differences between Georgia and Ukraine. Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 10:56 am
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:03 am to
quote:

Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali



Not that I remember, but I’ll accept a correction.

I think the Georgians were just overconfident, and they gambled they could take South Ossetia before the Russians could get there.

The Russians were conducting a training exercise on the other side of the mountain though. Which blew the whole thing up. It was never going to work.

I’ve never looked into it, but I assume the Russians exercise was scheduled because of the uptick Georgian activity. They probably had specific intelligence.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4694 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:06 am to
quote:

To add to the above, I don’t recall anywhere near the public & governmental show of support (emotions, not financial/equipment) for Georgia in 2008.


ummm

From Wikipedia

quote:

United States – US president George W. Bush said on late 11 August, "Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century." Bush also said, "There’s evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city." Bush urged Russia to sign the EU-mediated ceasefire agreement, otherwise Russia would "jeopardise" its standing with the West.[314] Although the Bush administration contemplated a military reaction to defend Georgia, it decided against it so as to not provoke a conflict with Russia. Instead, the US sent humanitarian assistance to Georgia on military aircraft.[315]


And once those air craft were in Georgia, they didn't take off effectively stopping the Russian advance for fear of getting the US involved:

quote:

In August 2008, as Russian tanks advanced through Georgia’s sovereign territory and headed toward the capital, Tbilisi, President George W. Bush announced that he was mounting a U.S. military airlift to Georgia under the banner of “humanitarian assistance.” Those U.S. Air Force planes, once on the ground in Tbilisi, never took off again. If Vladimir Putin wanted to take Tbilisi, he was going to have to go through the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to help secure a truce. This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.


Washington Post (sorry it's paywalled)
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4694 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:08 am to
quote:

And if Putin wasn't an evil Autocrat, and the Russians were Americans that could vote for something different this would all be very damaging


You're right...North Korea hasn't had any damaging things done to them by sanctions
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4694 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:15 am to
quote:

I am fairly ignorant on the matter and I am pretty sure other in here are probably pretty well informed on what happened in Georgia, but I believe there are some key differences between Georgia and Ukraine. Didn’t Georgia kind of get baited into attacking Tskhinvali


One key difference between these two conflicts is that each side had less that 200 military deaths for the duration of the conflict.

From Wikipedia (which I'm actively reading now):
quote:


On 1 August 2008, the Russian-backed South Ossetian forces started shelling Georgian villages, with a sporadic response from Georgian peacekeepers in the area.[32][33][34][35][36] Intensifying artillery attacks by the South Ossetians broke a 1992 ceasefire agreement.[37][38][39][40] To put an end to these attacks, the Georgian army units were sent in to the South Ossetian conflict zone on 7 August.[41] Georgian troops took control of most of Tskhinvali, a separatist stronghold, in hours.

Some Russian troops had illicitly crossed the Russo-Georgian state border through the Roki Tunnel and advanced into the South Ossetian conflict zone by 7 August before the large-scale Georgian military response.[note 4][39][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] Russia accused Georgia of an "aggression against South Ossetia",[41] and launched a full-scale land, air and sea invasion of Georgia, including its undisputed territory, on 8 August, referring to it as a "peace enforcement" operation.[49] Russian and South Ossetian forces fought Georgian forces in and around South Ossetia for several days, until Georgian forces retreated. Russian and Abkhaz forces opened a second front by attacking the Kodori Gorge held by Georgia. Russian naval forces blockaded part of the Georgian Black Sea coastline. The Russian air force attacked targets both within and beyond the conflict zone. This was the first war in history in which cyber warfare coincided with military action. An information war was also waged during and after the conflict. Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France, personally negotiated a ceasefire agreement on 12 August.



This reads eerily similar to what Russia is claiming and hoping to do with Donbas/Crimea.
This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 11:16 am
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3208 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:18 am to
What’s the purchasing power parity of the ruple now vs. pre-war? Russia has decoupled itself from the global market so it’s hard to tell apples to apples on just the currency market. The same issue arose comparing the Soviet economy to the west.

If a loaf of bread went from costing 1% of weekly income to 5% of weekly income that would be telling.
Posted by dallastigers
Member since Dec 2003
10859 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:29 am to
quote:

This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.


Except later they started using borderization tactics to keep pushing out further and gained access to a Soviet built pipeline that passed through Georgia in the process.

quote:

The process – erecting borders between Russian-occupied territories and Georgia proper – was called "borderization". The "borderization" process also involved a gradual advance of the occupation line inside Georgia by grabbing small chunks of Georgian-held terrain to enlarge the Russian-held territory, placing it nominally under South Ossetian administration

On 2 August 2009, Russian troops reportedly moved the South Ossetian boundary markers about 500 metres (0.3 mi) into the Georgian-controlled territory in the village of Kveshi. However, on 4 August the Russians removed the iron posts they had installed earlier in Kveshi. The demarcation of the South Ossetian boundary in Shida Kartli started in 2011 with the construction of a few fences in Ditsi and Dvani, but it was stopped after local negotiations

The process of border demarcation continued in February 2013. Russian troops started the installation of barbed wire barriers to separate the South Ossetian territory from the rest of Georgia.In some instances, the Georgian residents could not access their plots or come out of their homes because the border of barbed wire runs through or around their property…

In September 2013, it was suggested that the continuation of "borderization" would place 1,600 metres (1 mi) of Baku–Supsa oil pipeline beyond the occupation line.

In mid-April 2014, two portions of Baku-Supsa pipeline reportedly appeared on the Russian-controlled territories near the villages of Orchosani and Karapili. As of late July 2014, Russian forces were still constructing "security fence" across South Ossetia.

Green border signs claiming "state border" started to appear for the first time in 2015 along the imaginary administrative boundary line and since then have been moved further into Georgian territory on several occasions.

In July 2017, it was reported that Russia again moved its fences and border signs several hundred meters deeper into Georgian territory.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Georgia
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11965 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:37 am to
Thanks for making my point for me that non-economic actors are unaffected by economic sanctions. Didn't mean to interupt the circle jerk continue on
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 11:54 am to
quote:

ummm

From Wikipedia

quote: United States – US president George W. Bush said on late 11 August, "Russia has invaded a sovereign neighbouring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century." Bush also said, "There’s evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city." Bush urged Russia to sign the EU-mediated ceasefire agreement, otherwise Russia would "jeopardise" its standing with the West.[314] Although the Bush administration contemplated a military reaction to defend Georgia, it decided against it so as to not provoke a conflict with Russia. Instead, the US sent humanitarian assistance to Georgia on military aircraft.[315]

And once those air craft were in Georgia, they didn't take off effectively stopping the Russian advance for fear of getting the US involved:

quote: In August 2008, as Russian tanks advanced through Georgia’s sovereign territory and headed toward the capital, Tbilisi, President George W. Bush announced that he was mounting a U.S. military airlift to Georgia under the banner of “humanitarian assistance.” Those U.S. Air Force planes, once on the ground in Tbilisi, never took off again. If Vladimir Putin wanted to take Tbilisi, he was going to have to go through the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to help secure a truce. This mix of military pressure and diplomacy worked. Putin halted his advance.


None of that refutes my assertion on emotional campaigning on behalf of the media and govt. I even noted “not financial/equipment” for govt.

There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.
Posted by Hog on the Hill
AR
Member since Jun 2009
13494 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.
There's a few important contextual differences that I think may explain why there's a difference in attitude. For one, the US had two ongoing wars at that time. Enough problems of our own to worry about. Second, Ukraine has been in the US news for the last 8 years. Georgia was never in the news before the Russian invasion. There was a lack of familiarity with the country. Third, I don't think there was much of a build up to it, at least not in western media. With the invasion of Ukraine, we had the US government blitzing the media with intelligence, warning that an invasion was imminent. I don't think that happened with Georgia. Fourth, the war lasted less than 2 weeks and the scale was much, much smaller.
Posted by SoonerK
Member since Nov 2021
1014 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

None of that refutes my assertion on emotional campaigning on behalf of the media and govt. I even noted “not financial/equipment” for govt.

There’s billboards to support Ukraine in fricking South Carolina. None of that mess happened for Georgia or any other regional conflict that wasn’t started via civil war that I can recall. I still don’t recall it for Syria, but Syria got a lot of media coverage as well so certainly possible. Georgia did not which is the better comparison to this conflict than Syria.


Two reasons why. In 2008, Social Media was still in its early stages and is nothing compared to its size and reach now. 2. Americans just care more about what happens in Europe versus places in Central Asia or Africa.
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3208 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:09 pm to
Ukraine as a whole is about 10 times the population of Georgia or Crimea, both of whom have a population smaller than Louisiana.
Posted by Coleridge
Houston
Member since Dec 2020
315 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

If you believe Putin is some low IQ despot lashing out for no reason you’re a fool. He’s probably the best player out of the world power leaders


I mean he amassed a $630 billion war chest anticipating sanctions, and then left half of it parked in Western banks as his troops rolled into Ukraine. Is that the move of a low IQ despot or the "best player out of world power leaders"?

Reuters - reserves frozen

quote:

. . . The sanctions froze around $300 billion of Russia's $640-billion gold and forex reserves, its finance ministry said earlier in March. . . .


NYT - Cites to where reserves were kept

quote:

. . . Putin saved up over $600 billion in gold, foreign government bonds and foreign currency, earned from all of Russia’s energy and mineral exports, precisely so he would have a cushion if he were sanctioned by the West. But Putin apparently forgot that in today’s wired world, as is standard practice, his government had deposited most of it in the banks of Western countries and China.

According to the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, the top six nations where Russian central bank foreign currency assets are stowed by percentage are: China, 17.7 percent; France, 15.6 percent; Japan, 12.8 percent; Germany, 12.2 percent; U.S., 8.5 percent; and Britain, 5.8 percent. Also, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund have 6.4 percent.

Each of these countries, except China, has now frozen the Russian reserves it is holding — so around $330 billion is inaccessible to Putin, according to the Atlantic Council’s tracker. But not only can the Russian state not touch those reserves to prop up its crumbling economy, there will be a huge global push to tap this money to pay reparations to rebuild the Ukrainian homes, apartment buildings, roads and government structures the Russian Army destroyed in Putin’s war of choice.
. . .


Russia's GDP is around 1.48 trillion, so that $300 billion or so amounts to around 20% of a year's GDP frozen because of that blunder.

This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 3:02 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

There's a few important contextual differences that I think may explain why there's a difference in attitude. For one, the US had two ongoing wars at that time. Enough problems of our own to worry about. Second, Ukraine has been in the US news for the last 8 years. Georgia was never in the news before the Russian invasion. There was a lack of familiarity with the country. Third, I don't think there was much of a build up to it, at least not in western media. With the invasion of Ukraine, we had the US government blitzing the media with intelligence, warning that an invasion was imminent. I don't think that happened with Georgia. Fourth, the war lasted less than 2 weeks and the scale was much, much smaller.


I would counter that with we still have our own domestic problems with the economy and inflation, as well as 6 straight years of severe political turmoil, really you could add Obama’s 8 years to that in the opposite direction as well. I’ll give you were not fighting the same two wars now so there’s less military conflict for our focus.

Your point about Ukraine being in the news for 8 years was one of my points as well. The media has been invested in both Russia as the boogeyman and Ukraine for years at this point.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Two reasons why. In 2008, Social Media was still in its early stages and is nothing compared to its size and reach now. 2. Americans just care more about what happens in Europe versus places in Central Asia or Africa.


Two good points and I agree. I agree Americans care more about Europe than Central Asia or Africa, which is also part of the point of the media slant in coverage and relation to their revenues.
Posted by mattz1122
Member since Oct 2007
56589 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:39 pm to
We were still hyperfocused on Middle East terrorism at the time as well.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11965 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:43 pm to
Believing that crushing Russia's economy from nothing to more nothingness is worth the political risks of those policies is very shortsided
Posted by TacoNash
Member since Mar 2020
715 posts
Posted on 4/6/22 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

A video posted online on Monday and verified by The Times appears to show Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv on or around March 30, as the Russians were withdrawing. I'll thread some findings here:


LInk to the article


This post was edited on 4/6/22 at 1:01 pm
Jump to page
Page First 755 756 757 758 759 ... 5046
Jump to page
first pageprev pagePage 757 of 5046Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram