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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:37 am to Lonnie Utah
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:37 am to Lonnie Utah
quote:
Before the war, there are 45 million people in Ukraine. 8.4 Million of them are males between 18-45.
*does some math*
0
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:38 am to Centinel
quote:
Sucks when you surround yourself with yes men and they continually assure you they're more than capable of quickly subduing Ukraine...
Same thing happened with them storming Berlin
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:38 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
To Putin and a small percentage of Russians, the Ukraine is basically what Alsace-Lorraine was to France before WWI. They have simply not accepted the fact that millions of "their people" were taken from the Motherland.
FIFY
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:40 am to Vito Andolini
Whoa whoa whoa Ukrainians look like some of us. Huge difference Tally.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:41 am to Vito Andolini
quote:A million ex-conscripts who haven't trained since they left their 12 months of service(which makes you a dipshit PFC in the American Army). What that "mobilization" would look like is anyone's guess.
Russia can mobilize over a million men from its reserves
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 10:53 am
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:41 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
You are correct, it is not the same thing, but I use those examples from history to show that two of the greatest militaries from the 19th and 20th centuries were beaten by Russia and they were beaten because they underestimated Russia. I think we are all falling into that same trap and underestimating them now.
Russian didn't defeat the germans. Weather and over stretched supplies coupled with Russians hurling themselves at the Germans like lemings over a cliff is what defeated The Reich.
I doubt Russian conscripts are as willing to sacrifice themselves when they aren't fighting for the survival of their families.
Russian Empire building has been historically bad. Look at their progress in WWI and Afghanistan. Heck, they would have had a really difficult time subduing Eastern Europe had those countries not been so depleted post WWII.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:43 am to WDE24
quote:
The hope for Ukraine is that Russia and Putin, thanks to the sanctions, may not have enough time. How many months can he sustain this? How does he maintain whatever territorial gains he makes militarily? If the global community maintains its current position, can Putin survive as a world leader? Can the Russian economy?
That was originally my point, several pages ago, notwithstanding all of the pundits on television telling us that Russia is being "crushed" by Western sanctions, no one really knows the answer to this question.
I suspect that so long as the Russian people are not going hungry and their basic standard of living does not fall bellow a certain level, that this war can go on for a long time and that Putin can survive.
Read your history folks, Russians historically have show to have an incredible capacity to endure a great deal of misery, I think they can survive no longer being able to buy Gucci products, having a latte in Starbucks, and/or easily converting their money to Euros in order to take a vacation in Spain.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:44 am to Vito Andolini
You see that sugar free for all in that Russian grocery store, folks getting nervous…or mayor mccheese chaining himself to the McDonald’s door? This ain’t WWII generation, soft as shite generation won’t sacrifice WIFI let alone their lives over this…
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:50 am to LSUCanFAN
quote:
This ain’t WWII generation
This isn't the WWII generation because there isn't a WWII-type event happening.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 10:51 am to GetCocky11
Truth.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:01 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
I think they can survive no longer being able to buy Gucci products, having a latte in Starbucks, and/or easily converting their money to Euros in order to take a vacation in Spain.
The common Russian...sure
The Russian Oligarch who is seeing his lifestyle threatened... that's what is to be determined
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:06 am to Tigeralum2008
No it’s not TBD Puttin went off on his speech last night calling them a 5th column ie they refused to pay the next round of meat grinder war…he in turn has called for a cleansing of Russian oligarchs
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:08 am to Lakeboy7
quote:Can we believe it without seeing the raw PowerPoint?
I’m still not sure I buy that 75% numbe
Its from the Pentagon
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:08 am to LSUCanFAN
Putin realizes he's a Russian oligarch too, right?
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:08 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
Russian didn't defeat the germans. Weather and over stretched supplies coupled with Russians hurling themselves at the Germans like lemings over a cliff is what defeated The Reich.
This literally makes zero sense. If the Russians/Soviets were willing to accept horrific loses in order to defeat the Germans, which they were, then by definition, they beat the Germans, which they did.
quote:
I doubt Russian conscripts are as willing to sacrifice themselves when they aren't fighting for the survival of their families.
That is the question right now, how much pain is the Russian nation willing to endure and not one single person on this board knows the answer.
quote:
Russian Empire building has been historically bad. Look at their progress in WWI and Afghanistan. Heck, they would have had a really difficult time subduing Eastern Europe had those countries not been so depleted post WWII.
If you look at Russia from 1,000 AD to 1992, they were actually very good at empire building. It took centuries, and they suffered setbacks along the way, but they were quite successful in pushing out from Moscow and controlling a vast area of this planet.
WWI was one of those setbacks, but they overcame it, rebuilt their empire by rebranding it the Soviet Union and were able expand it once again.
You want to bang on them for losing in Afghanistan? I am not going to pick on them for failing to conquer it, when no one else in 2,000 years, us included, has been able to conquer it. Of all the dirty, nasty places on this Earth, that place and those people, just cannot be conquered.
The only way to ever truly conquer Afghanistan would be to kill all of its inhabitants and simply start over.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:09 am to facher08
quote:
I think the Russian conscript's will to fight would be very different when they are the invader instead of the defender, especially when most don't understand why they are fighting in the first place.
Just as you would see a much more motivated Russian populace and military if this became a war against NATO countries.
They would see NATO as a legit adversary, instead if invading a neighboring country in a war they weren't prepared nor conditioned for.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:11 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
I suspect that so long as the Russian people are not going hungry and their basic standard of living does not fall bellow a certain level, that this war can go on for a long time and that Putin can survive.
Any threat to Putin won't come from the streets, it will come from someone relatively close to him. Maybe the army, tired of being squandered in a futile war. Maybe one or more of his oligarchs, maybe the security services. He got to where he is by stepping on a lot of people. If they sense vulnerability, they might be inclined to take a piece of him.
Hard to tell, but in his speech last night he looked thinner. Maybe stress, or maybe whatever condition he has is advancing.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:16 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Any threat to Putin won't come from the streets, it will come from someone relatively close to him. Maybe the army, tired of being squandered in a futile war. Maybe one or more of his oligarchs, maybe the security services. He got to where he is by stepping on a lot of people. If they sense vulnerability, they might be inclined to take a piece of him.
Hard to tell, but in his speech last night he looked thinner. Maybe stress, or maybe whatever condition he has is advancing.
Time will tell.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:21 am to Jim Rockford
As Blinken said - "There will be an independant Ukraine longer than there will be a Vladimir Putin".
Posted on 3/17/22 at 11:23 am to Vito Andolini
quote:
Yes he does, it is called reserves. Russia still has universal conscription. There are millions of men in Russia who have served their time in the army and who are still part of their reserves.
If their active troops and officers have performed this poorly. What makes you think that the older reservists would make a difference? Those reservists got the exact same training as the active troops did. Why would they have better results than the active troops? Your attitude is the exact same attitude that world and military leaders had prior to WW1. That attitude let to lots of reservists becoming machine gun fodder.
You also are forgetting that Russia has lots of tanks in reserve but they have not been modernized at all. They would be destroyed by the ATGMs assuming that those old Russian tanks would even crank.
Also you are forgetting that Ukraine have already started mobilization and have a month’s headstart in training its population for war.
Ukraine has also been invaded. Russia hasn’t. So the Ukrainians have more reasons to fight. If this war drags on then Russia risks having the war turn into another Afghanistan for them.
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