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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:08 pm to Decatur
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:08 pm to Decatur
quote:
Joseph Dempsey
@JosephHDempsey
15 March satellite imagery @planet of Kherson Airport appears to show a number of #Russia helicopters destroyed or damaged following reported #Ukraine strike (46.67358° N, 32.50764° E)
This post was edited on 3/15/22 at 6:09 pm
3
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:11 pm to Sooner5030
quote:
Karol Darmoros ????
@KarolDarmoros
Poland’s deputy PM Kaczynski after the meeting with Ukraine’s president @ZelenskyyUa in #Kyiv: a NATO peace mission or a wider alliance is needed, which will operate in Ukraine - this mission cannot be defenseless.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/23/22 at 11:40 am
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:13 pm to Decatur
Don’t remember who I was talking to about this but here the quote
“ Lukashenko says Belarus forces will not join the war:
“I want to emphasize once again that we are not going to get involved in this operation that Russia is conducting in Ukraine. The most important thing, as I tell those of you in the military, is that there is no need for that"
“ Lukashenko says Belarus forces will not join the war:
“I want to emphasize once again that we are not going to get involved in this operation that Russia is conducting in Ukraine. The most important thing, as I tell those of you in the military, is that there is no need for that"
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:16 pm to Sooner5030
quote:
Poland’s deputy PM Kaczynski after the meeting with Ukraine’s president @ZelenskyyUa in #Kyiv: a NATO peace mission or a wider alliance is needed, which will operate in Ukraine - this mission cannot be defenseless.
Well......let us see where this goes.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:17 pm to Sooner5030
quote:
15 March satellite imagery @planet of Kherson Airport appears to show a number of #Russia helicopters destroyed or damaged following reported #Ukraine strike (46.67358° N, 32.50764° E)
That would explain why all those Russian vehicles were beat-feeting it away from the direction of the airport earlier.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The current estimate is between 6 and 8 thousand. That is just hard to wrap your head around, particularly when you consider casualties and POWs added to that number.
One way you may not have looked at it is a tank crew is 3 and a BMP human load is 8. Those Javelins can crank up the numbers fast.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
it's OSINTdefender so grain/pinch of salt and all
quote:
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Unconfirmed reports of a Large Ukrainian Counteroffensive currently occurring Northwest of the Capital City of Kyiv, Heavy Fighting can be heard in cities of Irpin’, Hostomel, and Bucha involving Armor and Artillery, I expect there to be a Statement from the MOD in the morning.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:23 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
s there an expectation that once these border areas fall that it'll be a quick collapse or is a slog to the center more likely?
Depends on if Russia can cut off the Ukrainian army in those areas. There is a large Ukrainian military force (perhaps >50% of their army according to some sauces) currently fighting in eastern Ukraine that is keeping Russia from uniting its armies. If Russia can cut that force and surround it then they can potentially encircle over 100,000 Ukrainian troops which obviously be a significant achievement and would allow the Russians to race toward Dnipro and then Kyiv unless Ukraine turns the roads into IED allies. Russia is hoping that would be enough of a blow to Ukrainian morale that they give into Russian demands at the negotiations table and they don’t have to try and fight street to street in Odessa, Dnipro, and Kyiv.
However if Russia can not cut off those Ukrainian troops it would make Russia’s job much harder. Russia has lost so many tanks in Ukraine that they are close to losing their numerical superiority. So the longer the Ukrainians delay the Russians the more they drain the Russian of there superior numbers, lower the morale of the Russian soldiers, and makes it more likely that the Ukrainians will be able to fight an organized fighting retreat making it a slow and hard advance for Russia instead of a dash to Kyiv like the Russians planned on.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:23 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
How can you say it will never happen again when it literally just happened again. This was a sneak attack, no? The fact we had intelligence saying an attack was coming doesn’t make it less like December 7/8 1941, it makes it more like December 7/8, 1941.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:25 pm to Royal
quote:
Kevin Baron
@DefenseBaron
JUST IN: UK military intelligence says so many Russian troops are dying by the Ukrainian resistance that it's likely struggling to conduct offensive operations and is seeking replacements...
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:26 pm to Sooner5030
quote:
Unconfirmed reports of a Large Ukrainian Counteroffensive currently occurring Northwest of the Capital City of Kyiv, Heavy Fighting can be heard in cities of Irpin’, Hostomel, and Bucha involving Armor and Artillery, I expect there to be a Statement from the MOD in the morning.
I was wondering if/when Ukraine would hit back at that area. They can't let Russia have unfettered use of that airfield in Hostomel.
They've done well bothering the Russians at the Kherson airport. Had another successful mission today.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
Probably a very old question answered previously, but besides the citizens making molotovs, have there been any reports of IEDs planted on routes etc?
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:32 pm to Sao
quote:
Probably a very old question answered previously, but besides the citizens making molotovs, have there been any reports of IEDs planted on routes etc?
I saw video earlier today of a Russian tank hitting something. It was said that it was likely an anti-tank mine. It ran over it when crossing open ground from one road to another road.
Needless to say, that tank and its crew were taken out of commission.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:34 pm to Sooner5030
I linked the "Speak The Truth" YouTube channel (it's run by Rob from LunkersTV and he was an army sniper and is pretty intelligent on warfare strategy) a few days back and he puts out two videos a day pulling from open source Intel and lots of different maps and has created his own map that actually shows where Ukraine has heavily fortified positions across the country and where Russia is having success.
Earlier he put one out showing the Russian supply lines coming out of the far eastern part of Ukraine and how there are actually two main routes moving east to west that are both running through pretty heavily fortified Ukrainian positions on both sides of each route. He says that the Ukes have just been pushing up and conducting quick strikes on these lines and falling back to their defensive positions all the time.
The entire video is good but that particular part just shows how bad the Russian strategy is in trying to move through these areas without having secured the routes. Anyways, fast forward to around 10:50 in the video and he marks these routes along the highways and you can see how easy it is for Ukraine to absolutely harass these routes from both sides of each route (4 sides total) and slow them down significantly. Very interesting and shows that logistics and supply line security is not a top line priority for the Ruskies. Which is crazy to me they STILL haven't secured them.
Speak the Truth YouTube
Earlier he put one out showing the Russian supply lines coming out of the far eastern part of Ukraine and how there are actually two main routes moving east to west that are both running through pretty heavily fortified Ukrainian positions on both sides of each route. He says that the Ukes have just been pushing up and conducting quick strikes on these lines and falling back to their defensive positions all the time.
The entire video is good but that particular part just shows how bad the Russian strategy is in trying to move through these areas without having secured the routes. Anyways, fast forward to around 10:50 in the video and he marks these routes along the highways and you can see how easy it is for Ukraine to absolutely harass these routes from both sides of each route (4 sides total) and slow them down significantly. Very interesting and shows that logistics and supply line security is not a top line priority for the Ruskies. Which is crazy to me they STILL haven't secured them.
Speak the Truth YouTube
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:37 pm to Sao
quote:
Probably a very old question answered previously, but besides the citizens making molotovs, have there been any reports of IEDs planted on routes etc?
There's so much purpose built ordnance around there may not be a need for IED's at this stage.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:42 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
interesting and shows that logistics and supply line security is not a top line priority for the Ruskies. Which is crazy to me they STILL haven't secured them.
They've tried, but just haven't been able to get the support in to do much good. They're stuck picking and choosing what to defend. They really dropped the ball in thinking they'd be able to run those supply lines unimpeded.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 6:49 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
Very interesting and shows that logistics and supply line security is not a top line priority for the Ruskies. Which is crazy to me they STILL haven't secured them.
How is Russia supposed to secure its supply lines when they started an invasion of a country the size of Texas with only 170,000 troops! Especially during the Ukrainian mud season? The roads in Ukraine were in terrible condition before the invasion but that would not have mattered if Russia had invaded in January because the ground was frozen. Now the ground is mud and the Russians are trapped on Ukraine’s terrible and limited road network because their equipment gets stuck if they leave the roads. Russia’s delay until after the Olympics really f**ked them.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 7:00 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
There's so much purpose built ordnance around there may not be a need for IED's at this stage.
US Special Forces have been training the Ukrainians for the past 4 years or more on how to defend against a Russian invasion. You know that the USA taught them the value of a IEDs. Ukraine has millions of old Soviet artillery rounds but we have not seen the Ukrainians use their artillery that much. I would not be surprised if Ukraine has lots of IED traps in the approaches to Kyiv and the other cities. I also imagine they have some javelin and Molotov cocktail ambushes prepared for their cousins from Moscow.
Posted on 3/15/22 at 7:05 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
How can you say it will never happen again when it literally just happened again. This was a sneak attack, no?
The fact we had intelligence saying an attack was coming doesn’t make it less like December 7/8 1941, it makes it more like December 7/8, 1941. The US and Japan were heading to war well before December 8. Japan maintained diplomatic communications in bad faith in the run up to December 8 and then attacked literally everyone and everywhere.
Our intelligence knew it was going to happen, said it was going to happen, and then it happened. The fact that a lot of people were wrong to think Putin was bluffing doesn't make it a sneak attack.
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