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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/2/25 at 7:39 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 7:39 am to John Barron
1
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:03 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:33 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
The Arabs hate the Jews,
This has undergone an interesting evolution.
The Arabs (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt's leaders) prefer Israel to Iran and the Shi'ites, now... it's a generational thing. The older leaders who thought there was solidarity between all Arabs and Muslims have died out (or are about to)... the younger leaders see Israel as reasonable and dependable in comparison to hardline Shi'a Iran and the groups (Hamas, Hezbollah) it has funded. Egypt is having a rift with Israel at the moment because it's pissed that the actions in Gaza are sending Palestinian immigrants towards Egypt, who they do not want, seeing them as potential Iranian-backed terrorists...
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:33 am to cypher
Russian double-tap attack injures 12 emergency workers in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast
by Martin Fornusek June 2, 2025 3:43 PM
Russian drone attacks against a State Emergency Service building in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's front-line areas on June 2 injured 12 emergency workers, Governor Ivan Fedorov reported.
Russian first-person-view (FPV) drones struck the building and service vehicles in the Stepnohirsk community, according to the governor.
Russian forces attacked again during an evacuation of the injured, the State Emergency Service reported. Russia has repeatedly employed double-tap attacks against civilian targets, often resulting in casualties among first responders.
All of the victims have been hospitalized. One of them is in a critical state, while others have suffered injuries of moderate severity.
Stepnohirsk lies only some 5 kilometers (3 miles) north of the front line in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The emergency workers were injured despite being in the shelter during the attack, the State Emergency Service said.
Fire trucks also suffered damage as a result of a direct hit.
"This is another example of deliberate and targeted Russian attacks on first responders — people who save the lives of others every day, risking their own," the service said on Telegram.
The Kyiv Independent
by Martin Fornusek June 2, 2025 3:43 PM
Russian drone attacks against a State Emergency Service building in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's front-line areas on June 2 injured 12 emergency workers, Governor Ivan Fedorov reported.
Russian first-person-view (FPV) drones struck the building and service vehicles in the Stepnohirsk community, according to the governor.
Russian forces attacked again during an evacuation of the injured, the State Emergency Service reported. Russia has repeatedly employed double-tap attacks against civilian targets, often resulting in casualties among first responders.
All of the victims have been hospitalized. One of them is in a critical state, while others have suffered injuries of moderate severity.
Stepnohirsk lies only some 5 kilometers (3 miles) north of the front line in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The emergency workers were injured despite being in the shelter during the attack, the State Emergency Service said.
Fire trucks also suffered damage as a result of a direct hit.
"This is another example of deliberate and targeted Russian attacks on first responders — people who save the lives of others every day, risking their own," the service said on Telegram.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:37 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:47 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:53 am to OutsideObserver
You can really boil this war down to a handful of issues. Taking it from the Pro Putin, Pro Russian side, their arguments started out with the absurd: DeNazification, DeMilitarization, Biolabs!!!, CIA Super Soldiers!!, and assorted nonsense. You notice that has been dropped for the most part. The shocking part is that there was really no Plan B. Russia thought it would win so quickly that they never considered this nightmare.
So the arguments have had to develop. And they're now saying the quiet part out loud: Russia doesn't want Ukraine to develop a western style EU focused democracy and market economy on its doorstep. If Ukraine starts to flourish, it makes Russia look even more corrupt and backwards than it already does. This is intolerable.
The other part is simple. Russia wants the fertile farmland, mineral deposits, and warm water ports of SE Ukraine. That's pretty obvious. And they don't try to hide it.
And the supporters of this position try to push Ukraine capitulation with a few arguments:
1) Ukraine's position at the negotiating table will get progressively worse. "Better cut a deal to give up a portion of your country while you still have some to give up.
2) If this continues it will lead to WW3 with a nuclear exchange.
3) This is Europe's problem, not our problem. We should let the EU fund it.
As for point #1: The terms that Trump is proposing are light years better than what Russia has insisted on (a Belarus like client state with no military and no sovereignty). So if any deal happens along the lines of what Trump has been pushing, then Ukraine will have won. Resisting will turn out to be a much better deal than if they had rolled over 3 years ago.
As for point #2: I don't think anyone believes this will end in a nuclear exchange. The only way that happens is if Poland or someone freaks out and kicks off a full invasion of Russia. But Russia's biggest risk is that China just waltzes into Siberia and takes what it wants. Russia's entire army is in Ukraine. There's no way they could resist. That to me is a much bigger risk.
As for point #3: I give Trump credit for focusing the light on this issue. He has bullied the EU into doubling their defense spending and taking on more and more responsibility for Ukraine. In another year Ukraine will have the largest defense industrial base in Europe. They will make more weapons than Germany. So much for Putin's idea of "DeMilitarization". Ukraine has become the lowest cost, most innovative defense manufacturing site in the world. All thanks to Putin.
So as long as the above trends continue, the war will have a favorable outcome for Ukraine. And there is no reason to think they won't. Russia is out of tanks and armored vehicles. The time for a mechanized breakthrough has passed for both sides. So it's now a war of assets. And the economies of the nations supporting Ukraine are collectively 35x larger than the Russian economy.
Russia has to find a way to declare victory. Or figure out a way to keep fighting like this in perpetuity.
So the arguments have had to develop. And they're now saying the quiet part out loud: Russia doesn't want Ukraine to develop a western style EU focused democracy and market economy on its doorstep. If Ukraine starts to flourish, it makes Russia look even more corrupt and backwards than it already does. This is intolerable.
The other part is simple. Russia wants the fertile farmland, mineral deposits, and warm water ports of SE Ukraine. That's pretty obvious. And they don't try to hide it.
And the supporters of this position try to push Ukraine capitulation with a few arguments:
1) Ukraine's position at the negotiating table will get progressively worse. "Better cut a deal to give up a portion of your country while you still have some to give up.
2) If this continues it will lead to WW3 with a nuclear exchange.
3) This is Europe's problem, not our problem. We should let the EU fund it.
As for point #1: The terms that Trump is proposing are light years better than what Russia has insisted on (a Belarus like client state with no military and no sovereignty). So if any deal happens along the lines of what Trump has been pushing, then Ukraine will have won. Resisting will turn out to be a much better deal than if they had rolled over 3 years ago.
As for point #2: I don't think anyone believes this will end in a nuclear exchange. The only way that happens is if Poland or someone freaks out and kicks off a full invasion of Russia. But Russia's biggest risk is that China just waltzes into Siberia and takes what it wants. Russia's entire army is in Ukraine. There's no way they could resist. That to me is a much bigger risk.
As for point #3: I give Trump credit for focusing the light on this issue. He has bullied the EU into doubling their defense spending and taking on more and more responsibility for Ukraine. In another year Ukraine will have the largest defense industrial base in Europe. They will make more weapons than Germany. So much for Putin's idea of "DeMilitarization". Ukraine has become the lowest cost, most innovative defense manufacturing site in the world. All thanks to Putin.
So as long as the above trends continue, the war will have a favorable outcome for Ukraine. And there is no reason to think they won't. Russia is out of tanks and armored vehicles. The time for a mechanized breakthrough has passed for both sides. So it's now a war of assets. And the economies of the nations supporting Ukraine are collectively 35x larger than the Russian economy.
Russia has to find a way to declare victory. Or figure out a way to keep fighting like this in perpetuity.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 8:56 am to John Barron
quote:
I don't. Why you ask? The drones had cameras. Ukraine already uploaded right away the video of the planes they hit and damaged. If they hit more planes they would have definitely shared that video. When you combine this with the fact the only Satellite photos released show 4 Tu-95s hit and 1 that does not look damaged that leaves me to my conclusion. Why haven't they released the other videos or Satellite photos? Common Sense would tell you because there is none. Matter of fact, at this point after 24 hrs I would not be surprised if anything released might be fake or manipulated. They released what proof they had shortly after the attack
Some French outlet's reporting that some of the more reputable people analyzing the conflict shared yesterday that based on information they had showed the total was around 10 destroyed, and this morning the same outlet followed up saying 7 TU-95s destroyed, 1 damaged, 2 TU-22s destroyed, and one AN-12 transport. My issue with that is that they aren't actually showing anything.
I do agree that this is something that Ukraine would be plastering everywhere if it were 40 planes. We would definitely have more proof than what we've been given so far. But Ukraine may not want to gloat too much publicly with peace talks going on today.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:08 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:13 am to No Colors
quote:
So the arguments have had to develop. And they're now saying the quiet part out loud: Russia doesn't want Ukraine to develop a western style EU focused democracy and market economy on its doorstep. If Ukraine starts to flourish, it makes Russia look even more corrupt and backwards than it already does. This is intolerable.
That is true, but also missing a pretty big piece of the puzzle. If Ukraine does flourish by integrating with Europe, that is effectively more weapons right on their doorstep in the hands of a neighbor you don't get along with. Now obviously if you aren't planning on acting like a geopolitical dickhead in the first place like Russia is that wouldn't matter quite as much, but its still a concern any country would have.
quote:
As for point #1: The terms that Trump is proposing are light years better than what Russia has insisted on (a Belarus like client state with no military and no sovereignty). So if any deal happens along the lines of what Trump has been pushing, then Ukraine will have won. Resisting will turn out to be a much better deal than if they had rolled over 3 years ago.
I don't think we really know for sure what Russia would agree to, or what Trump would agree to for that matter. I repeat this all the time, but demands made in public are often not someone's bare minimum expectation of an end result.
quote:
As for point #2: I don't think anyone believes this will end in a nuclear exchange. The only way that happens is if Poland or someone freaks out and kicks off a full invasion of Russia. But Russia's biggest risk is that China just waltzes into Siberia and takes what it wants. Russia's entire army is in Ukraine. There's no way they could resist. That to me is a much bigger risk.
The nuclear issue is such a big deal because a few mixed signals or crossed wires and the world burns. We had multiple missed calls with the USSR over flocks of birds
No one plans to shoot their wife until they find her in bed with the milk man.
quote:
Russia's entire army is in Ukraine.
That's not accurate.
quote:
But Russia's biggest risk is that China just waltzes into Siberia and takes what it wants.
I think downplaying the risk of nukes and then laying out this scenario in the same post is kind of silly.
quote:
Russia is out of tanks and armored vehicles. The time for a mechanized breakthrough has passed for both sides
Re:Russia, an anti-Putin outlet that condemns the invasion, estimates that Russia has 2,000-3,000 tanks still. Other estimates show that they will build 3,000 armored vehicles and 1,500 tanks this year.
Drones have made using mechanized forces too risky for both sides. They need to be saved for breakthroughs (Ukraine used a lot of armor in Kursk, for instance). But as we can see, breakthroughs aren't happening. Russia's advances have mostly been on the backs of small infantry units.
quote:
Russia has to find a way to declare victory.
I think as long as they hold Crimea and at least some of the other territories, they will spin it as a win. Which makes the fact that the Summer Offensive didn't focus on Crimea even more frustrating.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:15 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:15 am to VolSquatch
According to ChatGPT
If Vol's numbers are correct:
8 Losses of TU-95's = 17% of the airframes
2 Losses of TU-22's = 4% of the airframes
10 losses out of 118 total airframes = 9% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet
If the Ukrainian numbers (27 Tu-95, 4 Tu-160, 2 Tu-22) are correct:
27 losses of TU-95's = 58% of the airframes
4 losses of TU-160 = 27% of the airframes
2 losses of TU-22's = 4% of the airframes
33 losses out of 118 total airframes = 28% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet
Even on the low end, that is a significant loss; on the high end, it is a HUGE loss.
There are reports out of Russia that traffic is backed up everywhere due to every truck being stopped and checked.
https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1929474253339984120
quote:
Q: What strategic bombers does russia currently deploy and how of them do they have
A:
1. Tupolev Tu-95MS ("Bear")
Type: Turboprop strategic bomber
Quantity: Approximately 47 in service
Role: Long-range cruise missile carrier
Status: Many have been upgraded to the Tu-95MSM standard, featuring new engines, avionics, and reduced vibration levels .
2. Tupolev Tu-160 ("Blackjack")
Type: Supersonic strategic bomber
Quantity: Around 15 operational
Role: High-speed, long-range nuclear and conventional strike platform
Status: Production of new Tu-160M2 variants has resumed, with plans to expand the fleet .
3. Tupolev Tu-22M3 ("Backfire")
Type: Supersonic medium-range bomber
Quantity: Approximately 56 in service
Role: Tactical strike and maritime operations
Status: Some have been modernized to the Tu-22M3M standard, enhancing avionics and weapon systems .
If Vol's numbers are correct:
8 Losses of TU-95's = 17% of the airframes
2 Losses of TU-22's = 4% of the airframes
10 losses out of 118 total airframes = 9% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet
If the Ukrainian numbers (27 Tu-95, 4 Tu-160, 2 Tu-22) are correct:
27 losses of TU-95's = 58% of the airframes
4 losses of TU-160 = 27% of the airframes
2 losses of TU-22's = 4% of the airframes
33 losses out of 118 total airframes = 28% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet
Even on the low end, that is a significant loss; on the high end, it is a HUGE loss.
There are reports out of Russia that traffic is backed up everywhere due to every truck being stopped and checked.
https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1929474253339984120
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:20 am to VolSquatch
quote:
But Ukraine may not want to gloat too much publicly with peace talks going on today.
And talks are over after less than an hour
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:26 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:54 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I think downplaying the risk of nukes and then laying out this scenario in the same post is kind of silly.
That is aimed at the soyboy and female public to run scared. This is consistently done but never by Putin himself.
quote:
Re:Russia, an anti-Putin outlet that condemns the invasion, estimates that Russia has 2,000-3,000 tanks still. Other estimates show that they will build 3,000 armored vehicles and 1,500 tanks this year.
Russia hasn't been able to replace what it has lost, much like Germany in WWII. They have also built 1 of the new bombers over the last 10 years with 11 on order. What Russia has been doing is refurbishing OLD Cold War Era tanks to get anywhere near the number from the source you mention. This is why you see golf carts and cars hauling troops near the front in videos. Also donkeys seen as logistics to the frontlines.
From what has seemed to be unbiased, Perun's weekly reports.
LINK
Posted on 6/2/25 at 10:03 am to John Barron
Posted on 6/2/25 at 10:11 am to Chromdome35
As to the talks in Istanbul, announcements -
I know, but in Slavic countries this is called 'progress'. It could be worse.
LINK
quote:
Today's negotiations have concluded, and both delegations are leaving Turkey. The Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that the talks did not end negatively.
A third round of Ukraine-Russia talks will take place “at some point,” though no exact date has been set, Russian media report.
quote:
Russia didn’t want the US at the Istanbul talks. “Back in May, they insisted Americans weren’t allowed in the room. We don’t get why it matters so much to them. We think the US should be there. What are they hiding? That’s the real question,” said Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s Heorhii Tykhy.
quote:
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a "all for all" exchange of seriously wounded and ill prisoners of war, as well as all soldiers aged 18–25. — Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed.
quote:
Russia and Ukraine have also agreed to exchange the bodies of fallen soldiers on a "6000 for 6000" basis, — Rustem Umerov.
quote:
Umerov confirmed Russia rejected ceasefire and leaders’ meeting.
quote:
Russian delegation leader Medinsky says they’ve agreed on the biggest prisoner exchange yet—over a thousand people, including young soldiers and the seriously wounded. Russia also proposed short 2-3 day ceasefires in certain areas so commanders can recover their fallen troops.
quote:
In Istanbul, Ukraine handed Russia a list of Ukrainian children to be returned, said Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. The list includes hundreds of children illegally deported, forcibly transferred, or held in temporarily occupied territories.
quote:
[Russian lead negotiator[ Medinsky claims Russia got a list of 339 children “in difficult situations” from Ukraine—and insists none were kidnapped, only “rescued” by Russian soldiers.
I know, but in Slavic countries this is called 'progress'. It could be worse.
LINK
Posted on 6/2/25 at 11:21 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
The evolution of drone warfare through this conflict has been both interesting and concerning to behold.
The application and implications therein to the civil side, let alone the military, will be massive across the next decade or so.
That and some AI starting to be added to drones is going to be a whole new wave of change. A cell phone, an app, a drone and some explosives are all converging to a new form of warfare.
This post was edited on 6/2/25 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 6/2/25 at 11:27 am to Chromdome35
quote:
There are reports out of Russia that traffic is backed up everywhere due to every truck being stopped and checked.
Russians do appear to have a paranoid streak a mile wide and deep and once it is triggered it can gum up the works.
There are many ways to deliver flights of AI drones. Of course, that cuts both ways.
Posted on 6/2/25 at 11:34 am to CitizenK
quote:
hat Russia has been doing is refurbishing OLD Cold War Era tanks to get anywhere near the number from the source you mention.
From April: LINK
quote:
In his statement to Congress on Thursday, Cavoli also warned that Russia is expected to produce more than 10 times the number of tanks that the US manufactures.
He said Russia would likely make 1,500 tanks every year, while the US makes 135 tanks a year.
"Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year — but is on pace to replace them all," he wrote.
quote:
This is why you see golf carts and cars hauling troops near the front in videos. Also donkeys seen as logistics to the frontlines.
Partly, but that doesn't tell the entire story either. It also comes down to simple economics. Old cars and donkeys are cheaper than a drone.
Not that I think Russia has an abundance of vehicles or anything, but there is no reason to risk losing the ones they do have when there are cheap alternatives.
Unconventional solutions have been a part of warfare since humanity started fighting wars.
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