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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/19/25 at 6:41 am to CitizenK
Posted on 5/19/25 at 6:41 am to CitizenK
Quick question here. Maybe some of the "informed" posters can help me out.
If Ukraine isn't having a manpower crisis right now and that's all fake news while Russia is having to resort to donkeys because they don't have any vehicles, why doesn't Ukraine just advance?
Kind of strange that Russia has all these obvious faults and Ukraine can't exploit them. In fact, they are losing ground. So if an army as inept and struggling as much as Russia is can still gain ground, why should we believe that Ukraine can hold out for 2-3 more years like some suggest?
If Ukraine isn't having a manpower crisis right now and that's all fake news while Russia is having to resort to donkeys because they don't have any vehicles, why doesn't Ukraine just advance?
Kind of strange that Russia has all these obvious faults and Ukraine can't exploit them. In fact, they are losing ground. So if an army as inept and struggling as much as Russia is can still gain ground, why should we believe that Ukraine can hold out for 2-3 more years like some suggest?
5
Posted on 5/19/25 at 6:48 am to VolSquatch
It can advance a pig pen or so, but the standard ratio for actually advancing is 3:1 in manpower. With all of the drone surveillance, there really isn't a way to concentrate a force against a perceived weakness might be and have a breakout and rout the opponent like the Kharkiv offensive gun run of 2022.
For those who paid attention to the Ukrainian attempted offensive of 2023, It needs MUCH more in the way of breaching equipment to cross extensive minefields. That was never delivered as promised by the West. It wasn't any trenches or dragon's teeth which was the issue but the extensive miles deep minefields. Those can be laid overnight. It doesn't have to be by hand.
For those who paid attention to the Ukrainian attempted offensive of 2023, It needs MUCH more in the way of breaching equipment to cross extensive minefields. That was never delivered as promised by the West. It wasn't any trenches or dragon's teeth which was the issue but the extensive miles deep minefields. Those can be laid overnight. It doesn't have to be by hand.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 6:52 am
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:01 am to CitizenK
Rheinmetall and Lockheed to Build Europe’s First ATACMS and Patriot Missile Factory
May 19, 2025 10:39
This certainly will help revive Lockheed and their stockholders while giving them guaranteed entry back into the red hot EU market. Objections from Trump may delay this deal but cannot stop it as the country of manufacture will not be the US and technology concerns will be overridden by the fact that transfer of these weapons to EU countries and Ukraine has already occurred.
LINK
May 19, 2025 10:39
quote:
German defense giant Rheinmetall and US prime contractor Lockheed Martin agreed to set up a Europe-based joint venture that will build some of Washington’s most in-demand missiles, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told Hartpunkt on May 16.
The planned facility—described by Papperger as a “European center of excellence for rockets”—would turn out up to 10,000 missiles and an equal number of rocket motors each year, including ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles (300 km range), GMLRS guided rockets (150 km) for HIMARS and M270 launchers, Hellfire and JAGM air-launched missiles, and PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot air-defense batteries.
Rheinmetall expects to hold a 60 percent stake once the US government signs off, a decision that could clear the way for production lines to be ready within 12-13 months, motors rolling out in 2026, and full missile assembly by 2027.
Papperger says European customers currently need roughly 600–800 ATACMS , 2,500 GMLRS , 5,000 Hellfires , 5,200 JAGM , and 300 PAC-3 rounds every year, demand that could push annual revenue from the venture to about €5 billion.
Lockheed Martin, which is phasing out ATACMS production at home as it ramps up the next-generation Precision Strike Missile, may shift remaining US orders to the new plant, generating an initial €1–2 billion in turnover.
The CEO believes capacity will fill quickly, citing Ukraine’s urgent requirement for Patriot interceptors and other precision munitions. Intellectual property rights for any new designs will stay on the European side, and both partners plan full vertical integration to shorten supply chains.
Lockheed confirmed it is “working with European allies to identify cooperative opportunities that meet global demand for US munitions and precision-strike systems.”
The venture idea was hammered out during this year’s Munich Security Conference, where industry leaders also discussed securing five-year, high-up-front contracts with electronics suppliers to lock in critical parts.
Earlier, reports emerged that Ukraine has received at least eight units of the Raven short-range air defense system from the United Kingdom, with five more currently being prepared for delivery.
Designed to counter aerial threats such as Shahed-type drones, the system has conducted over 400 launches with a reported success rate of approximately 70%.
The Raven system was developed by the UK specifically for Ukraine in 2023, using a SupaCat HMT 600 vehicle chassis and AIM-132 ASRAAM air-to-air missiles adapted for surface launches.
This certainly will help revive Lockheed and their stockholders while giving them guaranteed entry back into the red hot EU market. Objections from Trump may delay this deal but cannot stop it as the country of manufacture will not be the US and technology concerns will be overridden by the fact that transfer of these weapons to EU countries and Ukraine has already occurred.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 7:09 am
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:07 am to Coeur du Tigre
Europe’s Artillery Production Skyrockets, Poised to Overtake Russia and Rival China by 2026
Dayum... We knew it was coming, just not this fast.
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quote:
In a stunning turnaround, Europe has gone from what analysts called “almost handmade” artillery shell production in 2022 to output levels that could soon rival China’s — and outpace Russia’s — just three years later.
The surge marks a shift in the global balance of firepower, positioning Europe as the new manufacturing backbone of Ukraine’s artillery war effort, open-source intelligence group Conflict Capital reported on April 24.
By early 2024, the outlook was as follows, with the US deliveries had halted completely — though Washington had still supplied about 2 million shells since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, double the EU’s figure at the time. Ukraine’s domestic production remained limited, and Russia had just begun receiving massive artillery shipments from North Korea, totaling more than 1 million rounds.
Now, the situation looks radically different.
“The United States has become a non-factor in terms of new contributions,” the Conflict Capital analysts note. “Everything currently flowing to Ukraine was already contracted by the previous administration.”
Europe has stepped into the gap. Just this week, British defense giant BAE Systems announced a new ammunition line at its Glascoed site, set to boost output 16-fold compared to pre-COVID levels. Deliveries to Ukraine are expected to begin this fall.
Germany’s Rheinmetall, a major player in the sector, is expanding its manufacturing capacity, while Denmark’s Nammo is reopening a previously shuttered plant in the north of the country to produce both small- and large-caliber rounds.
STV Group in Czechia, in partnership with Rheinmetall, already can produce about 1 million shells per year. Nammo contributes an additional 360,000. While these numbers still lag behind total battlefield demand, they represent a massive leap from Europe’s capabilities just a year ago.
By 2026, projected annual output includes:
Rheinmetall (Germany): 750,000 shells, with a goal of 1.1 million by 2027
BAE Systems (UK): 500,000
STV (Czechia): 150,000
Nexter-KNDS (France): 100,000+ plus nearly 100,000 casings
PGZ (Poland): targeting 150,000
Altogether, that’s nearly 2 million shells per year — enough to sustain a rate of 5,000 to 5,500 rounds per day if fully allocated to Ukraine. When factoring in Ukraine’s growing domestic production, the numbers edge even higher.
Russia, by comparison, is currently firing an estimated 12,000 shells per day — but nearly half of that is reportedly being sourced from North Korea. “The Russian war machine is no longer self-sufficient,” Conflict Capital concludes. “It cannot sustain two million rounds annually without outside help.”
Europe’s resurgence is being driven in large part by the EU’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) initiative, which combines long-term purchasing contracts with co-investment in critical production tools like hydraulic presses and high-temperature furnaces.
Still, challenges remain. Explosive materials like TNT, RDX, and nitrocellulose continue to be bottlenecks. But that too is changing.
Rheinmetall’s Nitrochemie unit has added a third nitration line in Aschau. BAE is rolling out mobile RDX micro-factories across the UK and at the Holston Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee. French supplier Eurenco is doubling its output of high-energy materials at its PB Clermont site.
If these trends hold, Europe could hit an artillery ceiling of 2.4 million shells per year by 2026 — an eightfold increase in just four years. The full impact, analysts say, will be felt in 2026 when current investments mature.
Ukraine isn’t standing still either. Since August 2024, a joint Rheinmetall-Ukroboronprom line has been producing 155mm shells inside Ukraine, aiming to hit 100,000 units this year. State-owned Artem
and other domestic firms are scaling up 152mm and 122mm Soviet-standard calibers as well.
In just three years, Europe has transformed from a fragmented, low-output patchwork into a continental force in the ammunition war — and it may soon outpace both China and a faltering Russia.
Earlier, reports emerged that since September 2023, North Korea shipped between 4 and 6 million artillery shells to Russia—enough to cover roughly half of its ammunition needs in the war against Ukraine.
The data points to a growing arms pipeline between Pyongyang and Moscow, marking a sharp increase in military cooperation between the two isolated regimes. One expert in the Ukrainian military told that the North Korean contribution was as high as 70%, and Reuters found that at times Russian artillery units were almost wholly reliant upon North Korean munitions.
In addition to artillery shells, Russia received KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, long-range howitzers, and multiple-launch rocket systems from Pyongyang.
Ukraine’s military intelligence service estimates the deliveries include 148 ballistic missiles, 120 long-range self-propelled artillery units, and 120 MLRS.
Before deployment to the battlefield, the shells are tested at Russia’s Luzhsky artillery range, Ukrainian military official stated.
Dayum... We knew it was coming, just not this fast.
LINK
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:20 am to Coeur du Tigre
Also, dud rate matters. What is acceptable to Russia would get entire factories shutdown in the West.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:20 am to CitizenK
Random tweets
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Zelensky Chief Aide Podolyak re: recent negotiations:
"Vladimir Medinsky read out their demands from a sheet. They believe Ukraine should hand over even those territories they do not currently occupy — parts of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions. They also want to strip us of our sovereignty by making us renounce participation in any military alliances. Moreover, they want us to give up our arms industry and to stop receiving any weapons from the West. They made numerous demands that are impossible to fulfill"
LINK
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?? The EU has agreed to create a €150 billion SAFE fund to strengthen the continent's defence, — a European diplomat told the media.
According to him, there are still technical comments. The latest version of the regulation was sent on the night of 19 May, and it still needs to be formally approved by all 27 countries.
‘This will be good for Europe's strategic autonomy and economy, and will provide more guarantees to Ukraine and its allies,’ — the diplomat added.
LINK
quote:
The first of 49 former Australian Army M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks are officially headed to Ukraine.
Australian broadcaster ABC confirms that the units are currently being loaded for shipment.
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Kremlin:
Russia will achieve the goals of the special operation, but it is preferable to achieve them through political and diplomatic means.
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Peskov stated that a phone conversation between Putin and Trump will occur today at 5:00 PM.
The Wall Street Journal: Putin is deliberately stalling negotiations over the war, betting that Trump will withdraw support for Ukraine. The dictator expects this to mark a new phase in the war and increase the Kremlin's chances of achieving its maximalist goals.
LINK
quote:
Finland will hand over €90 million worth of ammunition to Ukraine, purchased with funds from the frozen assets of the Russian Federation.
This was announced by Defence Minister Häkkinen.
The purchase will be made from Finnish manufacturers, and the European Peace Fund (EPF) will provide funding from the seized Russian funds.
LINK
quote:
Zelenskyy: “Held a meeting on our diplomatic work to end the war and establish a real, reliable peace.
The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov reported on the work of our delegation and the negotiation process in Turkey. The meetings on May 15-16 demonstrated to the world our readiness to bring peace closer and, accordingly, the need to put pressure on Russia to end the war.
In fact, the biggest result of the meeting was the agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war in the format of 1000 for 1000. Our team is currently working out the details of the exchange. I am grateful to everyone who helps.
Rustem Umerov, as the head of the delegation in Turkey, reported on the specific details of the conversation with the Russians. The Ukrainian delegation managed to keep the conversation within a decent framework. All attempts at Russian threats were rejected. Ukraine insists on the need for a complete and unconditional ceasefire to save people's lives and to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. Such a ceasefire should be long enough and with the possibility of extension. Our proposal, agreed with our partners, is 30 days. We are ready for this. We are also ready for a meeting at the leadership level to resolve key issues. Ukraine is not afraid of direct negotiations with Russia, and it is important that the Russian leadership does not drag out the war.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andriy Sybiga and Head of the Office Andriy Yermak reported on meetings and contacts with representatives of the United States and European partners - representatives of France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and Turkey. Andriy Yermak presented the positions of key countries. We coordinate with partners almost on a daily basis. Grateful for the support.
He instructed to form a permanent expanded national negotiating group.”
LINK
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:22 am to VolSquatch
quote:
If Ukraine isn't having a manpower crisis right now and that's all fake news while Russia is having to resort to donkeys because they don't have any vehicles, why doesn't Ukraine just advance?
The average Ukrainian soldier is 45 years old.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:38 am to Coeur du Tigre
[An Australian media outlet] has confirmed work has begun to load the first of 49 Abrams tanks bound for Ukraine onto a cargo ship.
Unbelieveable. There's just no cure for this level of stupidity. But thank Goodness for the Australians. I guess their new administration wanted to send a message to the MAGA crowd that fought so hard against them in the recent election. I wonder what messages Trump can expect from the Canadians, French, Germans and now, the Romanians. Oh, and the Wisconsinites as well. So much winning.
LINK
quote:
Before the shipping process could begin, Australia had to wait for Washington's approval to export the US-made tanks to a third country, which was granted despite American officials remaining privately frustrated about the donation.
"Last year, even before Donald Trump returned as president, we warned the Australians that sending these Abrams tanks would be complicated, and once they finally get to the battlefield the Ukrainians will find them difficult to sustain," one US official told the ABC, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Unbelieveable. There's just no cure for this level of stupidity. But thank Goodness for the Australians. I guess their new administration wanted to send a message to the MAGA crowd that fought so hard against them in the recent election. I wonder what messages Trump can expect from the Canadians, French, Germans and now, the Romanians. Oh, and the Wisconsinites as well. So much winning.
LINK
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:56 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
I guess their new administration wanted to send a message to the MAGA crowd that fought so hard against them in the recent election.
And yet they still asked for permission
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:33 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Kind of strange that Russia has all these obvious faults and Ukraine can't exploit them. In fact, they are losing ground. So if an army as inept and struggling as much as Russia is can still gain ground, why should we believe that Ukraine can hold out for 2-3 more years like some suggest?
I don’t know if anyone knows how long the war might last, but after three years and three months of fighting, I don’t see why it can’t last another two or three years.
Anyone can believe what they want to believe. There is so much information out there and you can pick and choose what to believe and what to discard.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:38 am to VolSquatch
quote:
And yet they still asked for permission
Good point, and an even bigger point , Trump said yes.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 9:47 am to John Barron
We need to save the situation": The Ukrainian Armed Forces have replaced the commander of the 59th brigade after failures in the Pokrovsk direction
??Now, instead of Bohdan Shevchuk, it will be headed by the former brigade commander of the 53rd brigade, Alexander Sak.
?"The situation in this area is not developing in the best way for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is necessary to save the situation," Ukrainian propagandists complain.
??Earlier, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repeatedly criticized Shevchuk for the violent assaults, inhumane treatment, and sending medics to assault units.
??However, even enemy resources note that "problems with breaking through positions" arose not only at Novosergeevka, where the 59th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is stationed, but also at their "neighbors" in the Kotlyarovka area, where the "O brave" are approaching the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region
??Now, instead of Bohdan Shevchuk, it will be headed by the former brigade commander of the 53rd brigade, Alexander Sak.
?"The situation in this area is not developing in the best way for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is necessary to save the situation," Ukrainian propagandists complain.
??Earlier, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repeatedly criticized Shevchuk for the violent assaults, inhumane treatment, and sending medics to assault units.
??However, even enemy resources note that "problems with breaking through positions" arose not only at Novosergeevka, where the 59th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is stationed, but also at their "neighbors" in the Kotlyarovka area, where the "O brave" are approaching the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:07 am to John Barron
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:29 am to PoppedRiser
quote:quote:It's really crazy that such an ascendant power as Russia can't impose achieve its objectives in Ukraine... That's 300sq. km in a matter of two weeks, Ukraine won't be getting back. I say let the fighting continue.
Lol someone is about to claim that Russia is gaining 20 sq km a day.
Google tells me that the area of Ukraine is 603,628 sq. km. If we round it off a bit and take it that today Russia controls 20% of that, and is gaining 20 sq. km. per day, then Russia will complete its conquest of Ukraine on ...
June 27, 2091
So the whole, 'Russia is gaining 20 sq. km. per day!' flex seems pretty weird. But I guess Putin is planning a big celebration for when he's 138 years old.
(Yes, I realize that the situation could change dramatically--in favor of either side. But we've seen no evidence that a dramatic change is on the horizon, so ....)
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:50 am to cypher
Fake news. I heard only missiles were being used for war crimes.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 10:56 am to NOLATiger163
quote:
So the whole, 'Russia is gaining 20 sq. km. per day!' flex seems pretty weird
And when you use American terminology, 20 square KM is just less than 8 square miles (7.72).
That’s not a lot of land when you consider the front is like 600 miles long.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 11:03 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Quick question here. Maybe some of the "informed" posters can help me out.
You are the most intelligent and perceptive poster here. Not sure why you are asking for help. ;)
quote:
If Ukraine isn't having a manpower crisis right now and that's all fake news while Russia is having to resort to donkeys because they don't have any vehicles, why doesn't Ukraine just advance?
There's a difference in manpower that can defend and manpower that can advance. A defensive war limits casualties.
quote:
Kind of strange that Russia has all these obvious faults and Ukraine can't exploit them. In fact, they are losing ground. So if an army as inept and struggling as much as Russia is can still gain ground, why should we believe that Ukraine can hold out for 2-3 more years like some suggest?
It's possible. Russia even with its faults should have ended this by now. This time, it's not Georgia or Chechnya. I still believe Ukraine will try to hold out as long as it takes for Russia to call it quits. Russia isn't showing signs of backing off, so it's also possible that Ukraine will be the one to give up.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 11:16 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Rostselmash said sales by all Russian farming equipment manufacturers fell by 76% for grain harvesters, 49% for forage harvesters, and 48% for tractors, compared to the same period in 2021, an agricultural boom year.
The company has laid off 2,000 workers since the fall of 2024, its CEO Konstantin Babkin told Kommersant daily earlier this month.
quote:LINKReuters
May 16, 20259:25 AM CDTUpdated 3 days ago
MOSCOW, May 16 (Reuters) - Russia's largest maker of combine harvesters and tractors, Rostselmash, said on Friday the demand for its machines has collapsed, forcing it to suspend production from June and cut costs, since farmers have no money to buy new equipment.
Rostselmash said it will send all its workers on mandatory leave starting in June, before the harvesting season begins, moving the leave forward from August and September as in previous years.
Farm equipment manufacturer suspends operations
Posted on 5/19/25 at 11:18 am to DakIsNoLB
quote:
You are the most intelligent and perceptive poster here. Not sure why you are asking for help. ;)
The most intelligent and perceptive poster knows enough to not engage in this dumpster fire. But I'm second behind whoever that is.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 11:21 am to doubleb
quote:
I don’t know if anyone knows how long the war might last, but after three years and three months of fighting, I don’t see why it can’t last another two or three years.
I wasn't seriously asking, I was making a point that for all of Russia's faults (and they are numerous) Ukraine still isn't doing any better even with a huge technology advantage.
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