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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:02 am to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:02 am to
@JackDetsch
quote:

NEW: U.S. not clear on battlefield impact that Polish MiG fighters would give Ukrainian military, which has relied on capabilities other than fixed-wing aircraft to defend skies from Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:02 am to
quote:

escalating the conflict by establishing a no-fly zone?


There is a de facto no fly zone in western Ukraine right now.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:04 am to
@LucasFoxNews
quote:

Russia losing about 50 military vehicles a day, including tanks, since start of war: U.S. official
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:07 am to
@JackDetsch
quote:

U.S. has no indications of Russia gathering more troops for Ukraine invasion after deploying nearly 100 percent of 190,000 forces arrayed on border: senior U.S. defense official
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
36467 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:09 am to
Looks like Russia finally took the airport about 10 hours ago.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:11 am to
@phildstewart
quote:

TACTICAL UPDATE - Russia has launched about 710 missiles at Ukrainian targets since its invasion began two weeks ago, evenly split between missiles launched from inside and outside the country, a senior defense official says.
Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
17356 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:16 am to
Russians have blown up a childrens hospital (sorry posted this by mistake on the "big board" by mistake).

LINK
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77539 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:17 am to
You know, we talk about how Russian citizens are protesting the government, but what percentage of the populace do y’all believe fully supports this?

We tend to have a skewed view of these things due to our general American “viewpoint” that we are always the righteous ones.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:18 am to
quote:

You know, we talk about how Russian citizens are protesting the government, but what percentage of the populace do y’all believe fully supports this?

We tend to have a skewed view of these things due to our general American “viewpoint” that we are always the righteous ones.


My best guess is 50/50.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105511 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Russia losing about 50 military vehicles a day, including tanks, since start of war: U.S. official





After two weeks of hard use under field conditions and with Russia's notoriously poor maintenance practices, mechanical breakdowns also must be increasingly common.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77539 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:20 am to
quote:

My best guess is 50/50.
Reports are that it is 60-70%, but there is no doubt in my mind that that is Russian propaganda.

~70% is where you go if you want to fake a study in your favor.

The UK’s YouGov polls are always right at ~70% on important topics.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 11:21 am
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139063 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:20 am to
quote:

You know, we talk about how Russian citizens are protesting the government, but what percentage of the populace do y’all believe fully supports this?

We tend to have a skewed view of these things due to our general American “viewpoint” that we are always the righteous ones.

Who knows, but the idea that everyone is against this war is untrue. Hell, now that all these sanctions are in place, Putin can very easily blame the US for the hardships and they wouldn't have any reason to doubt it.

Those people are suffering because one a-hole at the top is on a fool's mission.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77539 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Hell, now that all these sanctions are in place, Putin can very easily blame the US for the hardships and they wouldn't have any reason to doubt it.
Yea, those sanctions don’t tend to push people away from their government.

They push them right into its arms and give the propagandist an enemy to blame.
quote:

Those people are suffering because one a-hole at the top is on a fool's mission.
Absolutely.
Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
17356 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:22 am to
58 percent of Russians support the invasion of Ukraine, and 23 percent oppose it, new poll shows

Listen to article
4 min
By Claire Parker
Yesterday at 12:20 p.m. EST


About 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow’s full-scale assault.

The telephone survey, carried out last week by a group of independent survey research organizations, found relatively modest support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine compared with typical levels in the early stages of past incursions.

Gary Langer, a U.S.-based polling expert who runs a research firm, obtained the results of the study from the Russian research organizations and shared them with The Washington Post. He declined to name the Russian firms involved because of the risks they face as Moscow tightens censorship, but said he has partnered previously with the organizations, which he described as “strong, independent survey research firms.”

The national survey was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 1 among a random sample of 1,640 adults across the country. Participants were asked whether they support the Russian military operation on Ukrainian territory. The research firms released the full questionnaire and data set publicly.

About 46 percent of respondents said they firmly supported the action, and about 13 percent said they somewhat supported it. Roughly 23 percent opposed the operation, and 13 percent had no opinion or declined to answer. About 6 percent said they were on the fence.

Among young people, support for the war is significantly lower, according to the study. In the 18-to-24 age group, 29 percent indicated they back the war, while 39 percent were opposed. Peak support for the war, at 75 percent, was among respondents age 66 and older.


Fewer than half of respondents who live in cities of more than 1 million people — 48 percent — supported the invasion. A higher proportion of Russians who reported that their personal finances had improved or remained steady in the past year backed the war, compared with respondents who said their financial situation had worsened.

The results are all the more striking given the dearth of reliable information inside Russia about the invasion and its bloody consequences, Langer said. The Kremlin and state media refer euphemistically to the attack on Ukraine as a “special military action” meant to “liberate” Ukrainians and “denazify” the country.

Truth is difficult to find. Some of the few remaining independent news outlets in Russia have shuttered or suspended operations, and the Kremlin has restricted foreign websites and completely blocked Facebook. A “fake news” law that Putin signed Friday criminalizes contradiction of the official Kremlin line. Merely describing the war as such could lead to a 15-year jail sentence, posing obvious challenges for those seeking to conduct accurate polls there.

“Considering the government control of media and information in Russia, and the natural tendency of populations around the world to rally around their leadership in times of crisis, it is surprising to see this comparatively limited level of support for Putin and his government’s actions,” Langer said.

Putin’s war on Ukraine is drawing battle lines within Russia

Before the invasion, as Russian troops massed around Ukraine’s borders, a survey published by the independent Russian polling agency Levada Center found that 56 percent of Russians said a global war was one of their biggest fears.

Still, there is plenty of evidence of public support for the Russian invasion — or at least the absence of widespread criticism. While some Russian celebrities and oligarchs have voiced opposition to the war, and thousands of protesters have been arrested in cities across Russia, other people are celebrating. Outside liberal circles, public criticism has come at a relative trickle.

The results diverge from those of a survey conducted by the government-owned polling firm VCIOM, which says it found 71 percent support for the “decision to conduct a special military operation.” That is compared with 75 percent of Russians who supported Moscow’s military action in Chechnya in 1999 and 91 percent for Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Though the VCIOM survey found higher support for the invasion of Ukraine than the independent poll, notable trends emerge from both, Langer said — “those are considerably lower support for the war in Ukraine among younger adults in Russia, among city dwellers and among people who are struggling financially or economically.”

When it comes to Ukraine, what do Russian citizens actually want?

The apparent level of public backing for Russia’s invasion at the start could spell trouble for Putin if the war drags on, Langer said, pointing to the downward trajectory of support for past Russian incursions and American wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

“Wars of choice that drag on tend to quickly lose public support,” Langer said. “Add to that the vulnerability of war support when it has not only dreadful human consequences but also broad economic consequences, and you have a recipe for potential difficulty for Putin in terms of maintaining public support moving forward.”
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104185 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:22 am to
quote:

You know, we talk about how Russian citizens are protesting the government, but what percentage of the populace do y’all believe fully supports this?


I would bet a very small percentage fully support this war.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:22 am to
quote:

You know, we talk about how Russian citizens are protesting the government, but what percentage of the populace do y’all believe fully supports this?

I've been thinking on that over the past days.

I believe those people can be broken down into three groups:

1.People who wholesale support Putin and his military mission.
2. People who doubt, but have been influenced by propaganda to at least silently support the cause.
3. People who have shrugged the propaganda off and have, by whatever means, seen the realities of the war.

What is different today from any other time in the past 20 or so years is that there seem to be many more of number 3 relative to the past. That is encouraging. Though, we have also seen the regime tighten down on those people. Their impact within the country will continue to be limited, but they will have an impact.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77539 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Eurocat
That seems reasonable.
quote:

58 percent of Russians support the invasion of Ukraine, and 23 percent oppose it, new poll shows
Where do the other 19% sit?
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105511 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:25 am to
Rally round the flag only works so long, especially if the leadership has nothing to offer but hardship and pain, with no tangible benefit to show for it. Public opinion matters, even in an authoritarian state. Even Hitler and Stalin cared about what the public thought, to some degree.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Looks like Russia finally took the airport about 10 hours ago.

They will face the same issue they have faced with every other objective thus far. Taking it and controlling it whilst also advancing will be the issue. I haven't seen enough yet to believe they have 100% control of it at this point. I don't think the Battle of Hostomel is over just yet.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 11:26 am
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77539 posts
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:25 am to
quote:

I would bet a very small percentage fully support this war.
I disagree, and Eurocrat’s post shows it.

We seem to apply American viewpoints and sentimentalism to other countries, where it is wholly not applicable.
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