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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:24 pm to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:24 pm to
ISW update March 17 2025

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war.

Russian officials continue to demonstrate that Russia's aim of destroying Ukrainian sovereignty remains unchanged since before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Kremlin continues to reject the prospect of European peacekeepers in Ukraine, in opposition to US and Ukrainian positions on the matter and impeding the establishment of a stable, lasting peace to end the war.

A strong Ukrainian military backed by security guarantees remains the most important component of a sustainable peace in Ukraine and deterrence of future Russian aggression.

The United States announced its withdrawal from war crimes monitoring agencies related to the war in Ukraine – essentially a unilateral concession to Russia with no Russian concessions in return.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Anatoliy Barhylevych with Major General Andriy Hnatov on March 16.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian occupation officials continue to develop analogues to the federal "Time of Heroes" programming in occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society in occupied Ukraine.


Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42751 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

So your assertion is that Biden pressured Ukraine to not take a deal in 2019 when Trump was president?


They create unique ways to shift blame away from Putin and put it on Zelensky, Biden and the US.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

Ukraine to not take a deal in 2019 


Where did you come up with the 2019 date? This happened in April of 2022.

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Edit: Nevermind...you are the guy that post the ISW updates Now I know why you just posted BS
This post was edited on 3/17/25 at 9:01 pm
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 9:03 pm to
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 9:10 pm to
Not suprised at all on this, I think most of the people who have followed this war saw this coming.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Where did you come up with the 2019 date


Did you read what you responded to?
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Not suprised at all on this, I think most of the people who have followed this war saw this coming.


Agreed, but only if it actually moves the ball.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42751 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Where did you come up with the 2019 date Did you read what you responded to?


No, thry just make stuff up and kept putting Russian propaganda out there.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26839 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 10:58 pm to
quote:

During interviews in Trump's campaign he said that he would give Ukraine the most modern weaponry and more than they could handle


That would be the "Art of the Deal," but he could unleash a whole lot of F16's and other weapons with hired experienced pilots and contractor crews easily enough. That would turn the tide quickly enough.

Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:11 pm to
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16108 posts
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:38 pm to
Just checking to see if Russia has taken Kyiv yet before I go to bed.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4598 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 3:31 am to
quote:

Just checking to see if Russia has taken Kyiv yet before I go to bed.
Ah yes, good times. Now it's more Kyiv taking Russia. This is only for the last month:





Total of 35. That's over one attack per day.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4598 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 5:49 am to
That's 27 Russian oil refineries, gas compressor stations and pipeline stations hit between 16 Feb. and 17 March. Six in February and 21 in March. Do we see a trend here...?


17 February, the Kropotkinskaya oil refinery in Kropotkin was targeted by drones.

17 February, The Ilsky oil refinery in Ilsky was again targeted by drones.

20 February, the Chernomortransneft oil refinery in Novovelichkovskaya was targeted by drones.

February 19, Russia's Syzran oil refinery in Samara Oblast, which is operated by Rosneft, one of the country's largest oil production companies, suspended its operations after an attack by a Ukrainian drone that resulted in a fire, Reuters reported.

February 24, the Ryazan refinery complex was targeted by drones. This is the closest refinery to Moscow and provides over 40% of all petrol and diesel to that city.

26 February, the Tuapse oil refinery in Tuapse was targeted by drones.

3 March, the Transneft-Privolga oil pipeline in Chertkovskovo was targeted by drones.

3 March, Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was again targeted by drones in the Rostov region of Russia.

3 March, the Bashneft Russian oil refinery in Ufa was targeted by long range kamikaze drones, 1350km from the frontline. This is the first strike on Ufa oil refinery, and it’s also the furthest targeted one.

4 March, Russian oil refinery in Syzran was targeted by drones. 800km from the frontline.

8 March, Ukraine's general staff said on Facebook that the strikes had targeted a refinery in the Ryazan region and the Novokuibyshev refinery in the Samara region. It said both facilities supplied fuel for the Russian army.

9 March, Oka Center oil depot at Kstovo was targeted by drones.

9 March, the Ryazan oil refinery was again targeted by drones.

10 March, the Novokuybyshev oil refinery in Samara was targeted by drones.

11 March, Oka Center oil refinery at Serpukhov was targeted by drones.

11 March, Druzhba oil pipeline was targeted by drones.

11 March, the Oryol oil refinery in the Oryol Oblast was targeted by drones.

11 March, Ukraine’s general staff said they struck the Ryazan refinery on Sunday, which they said produced jet fuel, processes 11 million tons of oil annually and supplies 40-50% of Moscow's diesel and gasoline needs.

12 March, Drones struck the Novokuybyshev refinery in the Samara region, which produced fuel for Russia’s northern grouping of forces. The plant was one of the 10 largest in Russia.

12 March, the petroleum feedstock facility in Kozyrivka was targeted by drones.

13 March, the Davidovskaya gas compressor station in the Tambov region was targeted by drones.

13 March, the Novopetrovskaya gas pipeline compressor station in Petrovsk was targeted by drones.

14 March, A large fuel storage tank at the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region was struck in an overnight drone attack, Russian media outlet Astra reported. [Correction – the weapon in question was Ukraine’s new ‘Long Neptune’ cruise missile. Much greater warhead and 1000 mile range.]

14 March, the Novorossiysk refinery industrial zone was targeted by drones.

15 March, the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd is struck with drones again along with the attached Kaustik chemical manufacturer.

16 March, Ukrainian forces using new long range Neptune cruise missiles hit and severely damaged in a long range strike the Aksinino oil pumping station in Bryansk Region of Russia.

17 March, the Astrakham fuel and energy complex was targeted by drones.


By the way, how's that Ukrainian manpower shortage going...?



.

Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4598 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 6:34 am to
quote:

That's 27 Russian oil refineries, gas compressor stations and pipeline stations hit between 16 Feb. and 17 March. Six in February and 21 in March.
And it's just going to get better...

quote:

Zelensky: "A Ukrainian domestically developed OWA drone with range of over 3,000 Kilometers has passed the testing phase and is expected to enter mass production in the coming months."




LINK
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8423 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:01 am to
quote:

Not suprised at all on this, I think most of the people who have followed this war saw this coming.



I was told in this very thread in the past couple of weeks that this was impossible due to international law.

Some people haven't figured out yet that international law only applies when the people who stand to benefit from it AND can actually enforce it CHOOSE to enforce it.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16108 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:09 am to
quote:

11 March, Druzhba oil pipeline was targeted by drones.


Affects flow of oil from Kazakhstan, Chevron and Exxon impacted there
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16108 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:13 am to
Hitting refineries does not affect the flow of crude oil so much. Not that you are saying this but a number of sources in social media seem to think it does.

Russian refining capacity pales in comparison to US or Chinese refinery capacity. It was their real cash cow in the past with refined products exports more so than crude oil or natural gas. Value added instead of sometimes doesn't have profit.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4598 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:36 am to
quote:

11 March, Druzhba oil pipeline was targeted by drones.

Affects flow of oil from Kazakhstan, Chevron and Exxon impacted there

Also -

On January 30th (2025), drones struck the Novozbykov oil pumping station, a key part of the Druzhba pipeline, and the Andreapol pumping station on the Baltic Pipeline System-2, which supplies the Ust-Luga sea port. The volume of seaborne oil exports has dropped to zero, according to Bloomberg. The port is responsible for 20% of Russia's total seaborne exports.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5724 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:48 am to
quote:

And it's just going to get better...



The "long neptune" has also made an appearance...

Source: Zelenskyy on Telegram

Quote from Zelenskyy: "Reports have been submitted on our missile programme. We have significant results. The long-range Neptune has been tested and successfully used in combat. A new Ukrainian missile, an accurate strike.

Its range is 1,000 kilometres. I am grateful to our Ukrainian developers, manufacturers and military. We continue to work to ensure Ukraine's security."

Update: Ukrainska Pravda sources have reported that a long-range Neptune missile struck an oil refinery in the Russian city of Tuapse.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8423 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 7:57 am to
quote:

Affects flow of oil from Kazakhstan, Chevron and Exxon impacted there



After the war ends maybe you can sell your Silicon Valley Tech to Russia as well, seems like they might need it
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