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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:22 am to doubleb
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:22 am to doubleb
quote:
Russia will negotiate a peace only if it’s in their best interests. If the price they are currently paying is too high then there will be a peace treaty, if it’s not then the war will continue.
It’s not complicated. The ball is in Russia’s court and they are trying to squeeze all the juice out of it that they can.
So why is it "giving in to bullies" if someone would rather Ukraine give up more that they (& we) would like if it ends it now?
I see a few potential reasons for this:
1) Ukraine's leadership either thinks its ramp is longer than Russia's (which based on public comments seems unlikely)
2) Ukraine's leadership feel they can't give in to an unfavorable deal based on previous public comments about their war aims
3) Russia thinks they can just take FAR more than we imagine, making even capitulation unrealistic. I think there is a scenario where lines buckle and Russia actually takes most of the territory in the "contested" provinces eventually. But what if Russia thinks they can be strolling into Kyiv in the next 2 years or something? Giving up the eastern provinces is one thing, but giving up your capital is another.
2
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:33 am to VolSquatch
quote:
f you think Russia's economy and military are near collapse, yeah you'd probably think agreeing to a peace that isn't favorable to Ukraine right now is giving in to a bully.
I do not believe Russia’s economy or military is on the verge of collapsing, but I do believe that imthry are being strained. To what degree, I don’t know. If it’s not enough to push Russia to peace then there will be no peace. I don’t think Ukraine is close to surrender, however.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:37 am to VolSquatch
quote:
But what if Russia thinks they can be strolling into Kyiv in the next 2 years or something?
If IF were a skiff it would be a boat
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:39 am to VolSquatch
quote:
So why is it "giving in to bullies" if someone would rather Ukraine give up more that they (& we) would like if it ends it now?
If Ukraine is pushed to surrender it’s not because they are being bullied, it is because they have been beaten down.
I don’t think Russia has reached their brink and they see the US bailing and they do not fear Europe so they e we I’ll not accept a peace unless Ukraine surrenders their govt.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:46 am to CitizenK
quote:
If IF were a skiff it would be a boat
Do not underestimate the power of belief.
Some of the best and the most horrible things that have happened in world history are because of it.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 8:51 am to VolSquatch
Germany expected to win in 1914 and its war economy is what caused its military to collapse, not the Allied forces. It tried to force quality over quantity with the same quantities for munitions. As if Russia even new what quality was before the war 2022. It didn't..
I have yet to find anyone who can name quality products made in Russia that anyone would want to purchase except those little nesting dolls.
Russia's war economy has hollowed out its gas station economy with was already an inefficient one. With what looks like a looming oversupply of oil in the world, Russia will have definite problems paying for its war.
I have yet to find anyone who can name quality products made in Russia that anyone would want to purchase except those little nesting dolls.
Russia's war economy has hollowed out its gas station economy with was already an inefficient one. With what looks like a looming oversupply of oil in the world, Russia will have definite problems paying for its war.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:17 am to No Colors
quote:
Just a year ago, the terms that Russia insisted on for a cease fire included the following:
Ukraine dismantles its army
Ukraine dismantles its government
Russia appoints its president
No elections
Basically in order to get a cease fire a year ago, Ukraine would have had to become Belarus.
Ukraine is in a better position now than they were a year ago.
Have you asked yourself how that happened?
Do you pay taxes in the US? I do.
Ukraine is in a better position today than they were a year ago because the US taxpayers have provided them with weapons and cash.
Corrupt Ukranian officials have stolen a lot of that cash.
In addition, a lot of it has been kicked back to US politicians in the form of campaign contributions.
Do you know what that is called? Money laundering.
As a US taxpayer, I am tired of my money being stolen by corrupt Ukranian officials. I am tired of it being used to bribe US politicians.
If you don't pay taxes in the US, I can understand why you don't care about that.
I'm sorry the bully Russia invaded Ukraine. But it is not my problem and and I am tired of being forced against my will to paying for their defense, especially when Ukrainian official are living the high life at my expense.
And I want the senseless killing to stop.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 11:21 am to doubleb
quote:
That isn’t negotiating, that’s dictating terms.
Ukraine can agree or disagree, they don’t have to surrender.
You are dense as a post. The side with the upper hand gets to dictate terms.
And yes, Ukraine can agree of disagree.
If they disagree, they suffer the consequences. I'm don't paying for their idiocy.
You are obviously not a taxpaying American, or you would be also.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:01 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
So Russia doesn’t want peace right now while the getting is good.
Trump is offering Putin a face saving way to release the ears of the wolf he's been holding for the last 3+ years.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:06 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
This is obviously true. Ceasefires that don't result in long-term peace will almost always favor the side on their back foot currently.
That cuts both ways. Putin can bring in more T54's and donkeys too.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:13 pm to Stinger_1066
quote:
If they disagree, they suffer the consequences. I'm don't paying for their idiocy.
Obviously, but there are consequences for Russia too.
quote:
You are obviously not a taxpaying American, or you would be also.
You have no clue.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:15 pm to doubleb
quote:
If Ukraine is pushed to surrender it’s not because they are being bullied, it is because they have been beaten down.
But if they are beaten down it might be too late by that point. That's the entire premise behind giving up more now to avoid potentially catastrophic losses later.
We are all speculating. I hope their resistance in doing that is because they have information and insight that I don't have access to that gives them hope. I just don't think that is the case. I believe they have been mislead by the previous US Admin and Europe into thinking they have a chance when they don't. Hope I'm wrong.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:23 pm to doubleb
From Merkel to Trump and Zelensky and the weakness of the EU.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:24 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
But if they are beaten down it might be too late by that point. That's the entire premise behind giving up more now to avoid potentially catastrophic losses later.
If Ukraine wants to fight to tgdd Ed death ftom bring overrun by Russia, it’s not my business to tell them not to do so. They obviously believe their freedom is worth dying for.
quote:
We are all speculating. I hope their resistance in doing that is because they have information and insight that I don't have access to that gives them hope. I just don't think that is the case. I believe they have been mislead by the previous US Admin and Europe into thinking they have a chance when they don't. Hope I'm wrong.
We are all speculating and bring influenced by Russian propaganda,
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:30 pm to doubleb
quote:
bring influenced by Russian propaganda,
Depending on where you get your news, I would say its just as likely that you get more Ukraine propaganda than Russian. Both are working overtime for sure.
Posted on 3/17/25 at 12:31 pm to Auburn1968
Heckin love VDH 
Posted on 3/17/25 at 1:41 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Depending on where you get your news, I would say its just as likely that you get more Ukraine propaganda than Russian. Both are working overtime for sure.
Recent example. Thousands of Ukrainian troops were supposedly surrounded in Kursk. We saw on a regular basis that these troops had no chance of escape. Even the president pleaded with Russia to let them out of the trap.
What happened after that? Was as it true? It was it propaganda?
Posted on 3/17/25 at 2:56 pm to doubleb
Posted on 3/17/25 at 3:03 pm to John Barron
Posted on 3/17/25 at 4:06 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:LINK
Elon Musk's Starlink is now just as crucial for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine as it is for the Ukrainian defenders. A mass deactivation of many Russian Starlink terminals last month has prompted an unusually frank assessment of much the Russians now depend on it.
If accurate, it seems that Starlink terminals in Russian hands were de-activated last month. The serious repercussions of this action is discussed in this tread, but basically it reduced the Russian war effort back to the analog days. The question is why? Knowing Elon's great affinity for all things Putin, there is only one reason that makes sense.
Due to sanctions preventing Russians from purchasing these units, they were purchased in other countries and supplied to the Russians illegally. In the past, Starlink would defend allowing the Russians the satellite feed by stating that they can't shut down the Russian terminals without shutting the Ukrainian units as well due to their proximity on the front lines. As anyone with a satellite dish knows, this is bullshite. They get the Ukrainian / Polish terminals on a white list and shut down everything else.
But clearly Musk doesn't want to do that. So why are the Russian terminals being shut down? The only logical answer is the simplest - the Russians are not paying their Starlink bills. And with the Tesla crater on the books now, cash flows on publically accessible GAAP accounting requirements for the Musk universe are setting off fire alarms. Putin bro or not.
What was it we were talking about with the end of the SWIFT sanctions exemptions, the crash of the Ruble, the disappearance of foreign currency in Russia as well as their gold reserves being tapped heavily, the hundreds of drone strikes on Putin's refineries and the shutting of India and China to the shadow fleet crude oil? Now we can see one of the direct links between Kremlin finances and the war effort. One of many. This is how the war ends, not with a bang but a whimper. A financial whimper.
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