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Message
1
Posted on 3/5/25 at 10:18 pm to Lee B
quote:
The main thing from the address of French President Macron:
• "I decided to also begin strategic discussions to protect the entire continent with the help of our nuclear weapons. The decision will depend on the heads and commanders-in-chiefs of European countries".
• "The threat from Russia spreads throughout Europe. It's not just a Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it's an international conflict".
• "This aggressiveness seems far away, but it's very close. Russia is already interfering in our elections, they spread propaganda everywhere".
• "Russia continues to rearm itself, spending 40% of its budget on defense. By 2030, Russia wants to mobilize an additional three million soldiers and add four thousand tanks to the armament".
• Macron once again reminded of the possibilities of sending European troops to Ukraine: "This does not mean that they will be on the frontline. But if a peace agreement is signed, they will be the guarantees of its adherence".
• "We have decided to increase funding for the production of tanks and helicopters in Europe." I have appealed to the government to ensure this."
This post was edited on 3/5/25 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:21 am to cypher
?Institute for the Study of War? ?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
·
MORE: Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.
·
MORE: Trump administration policies are undermining the leverage that the United States needs to get Putin to accept any peace agreement that is in the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:27 am to cypher
?Institute for the Study of War? ?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
·
Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
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Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 12:32 am to cypher
Institute for the Study of War
?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
The suspension of all US intelligence sharing with Ukraine would also allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against the Ukrainian rear, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
Posted on 3/6/25 at 3:45 am to cypher
Drop in oil prices the last day or two means Russia gross margin is close to zero for crude oil sales
Posted on 3/6/25 at 4:51 am to CitizenK
quote:
Drop in oil prices the last day or two means Russia gross margin is close to zero for crude oil sales
The capital has already been outlaid, its just a matter of variable costs, so no they arent anywhere close to breakeven.
However, with the US no longer pumping 100s of billions into the ukraine, we will soon see ukraine has no economy.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 5:18 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
That’s just never going to happen. For this to happen U.S. companies and U.S. citizens would be in Ukraine in some capacity mining for rare earth minerals along with Ukrainians so the mineral deal itself is the best security Ukraine can possibly have at this point.
As discussed when we first learned about Kyiv’s proposed mineral rights deal, their only goal is to get the Russians out of the occupied areas. This was the plan:
1. Sign mineral rights agreements for the occupied territory with US persons / companies of Trump’s selection;
2. Said mineral rights agreements specifically provide for US weapons and support to be provided to Ukraine at normal cost to the Ukrainians, no cost to the US;
3. Ask mineral rights holders to pressure Trump to send the Ukrainian military the agreed weapons and support they need to extract the Russians;
4. Get the weapons, extract Russians;
5. Invite mineral rights holders to establish mining and logistics operations, the more and larger the better, as this (as you point out) is the best guarantee of peace going forward.
You’re right, “That’s just never going to happen”. Sadly, Putin won’t allow Trump to do this. Putin also wants the mineral rights in the occupied territories. So Trump, Vance and their billionaire tech bros are now trying to steal the mineral rights for the entire non-occupied country, leaving the occupied areas in control of the Russians. And Ukraine gets nothing. No weapons, no support.
So the Putin / Trump plan is clear now:
1. Force a ceasefire and defeat the Ukrainian military;
2. set up a puppet in Kyiv; and
3. Divide the country and its resources.
This has been the plan from the first time the Ukrainians approached Trump. They just couldn’t have anticipated that Trump and Putin were so firmly in bed with each other. So even if Ukraine signed the mineral rights agreement with no security component, it would not change anything. Putin and Trump would do the same thing – defeat Ukraine, set up a puppet and split the loot.
Just as there is no security component to the Putin / Trump mineral rights plan and never was, there is no Trump peace plan, and there never was. The Putin / Trump Peace Plan is simply for murderous exploitation.
.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 6:05 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
You all in here talking about a nuclear war.......you best focus on those ukranian boys learning to wipe their own arse and at least try and hold some ground without the US help, that might be a good start.
You know it's really strange that when I said I didn't want to allow strikes deep into Russia because of the threat of escalation and nuclear war, I was highly criticized by the blue and yellow flag waving conglomerate.
Since then we've seen analysis saying that those strikes didn't help Ukraine and the weapons would have been better utilized striking targets near the front, and now the UKucks are all worried about nuclear war after telling us that Russia had "maybe 12" working nukes. Now there is this massive Russian nuclear threat.
GOPtittybaby was one of the worst offenders. He was probably smart to leave before being exposed as completely non-credible. Others are sticking around for the punishment for now.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 6:06 am
Posted on 3/6/25 at 6:12 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Since then we've seen analysis saying that those strikes didn't help Ukraine and the weapons would have been better utilized striking targets near the front,
Give me an example of this analysis.
quote:
now the UKucks are all worried about nuclear war after telling us that Russia had "maybe 12" working nukes.
I don't buy the notion that Russia was concerned about escalation because they were the first to bring up nuclear rhetoric long before Ukraine was striking deep into Russian territory. It seems a more convenient excuse than it is an actual reason for escalation.
If Russia had been more circumspect about their rhetoric about using nuclear weapons, then maybe the claims that the escalation that long-range strikes provided could be taken more seriously, but given that they've been extremely quick to use that rhetoric undermines that notion. There has been a far more significant escalation in terms of the Kursk incursion by Ukraine and even that didn't provoke the same amount of nuclear rhetoric as Russia used earlier in the war.
The problem now is that we don't know what the line is between nuclear blackmail and the actual point where Russia will use nuclear weapons. If they didn't use it to actually protect a piece of their own sovereign territory, and didn't use it the several other times they threatened it, then what is the line where they will use it?
Posted on 3/6/25 at 6:16 am to Coeur du Tigre
Radnom tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Four senior members of President Trump’s entourage have secretly met with Ukrainian opposition leaders on potentially holding early elections to unseat Zelensky, per Politico.
"The official line from the U.S. administration is that Trump is not interfering in Ukraine’s domestic politics. This week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied his boss was “weighing into Ukrainian politics,” adding all that Trump wants is a partner for peace."
"The senior Trump allies held talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskyy’s immediate predecessor as president, according to three Ukrainian parliamentarians and a U.S. Republican foreign policy expert."
"All of that is prompting Zelenskyy’s domestic political opponents and even some former allies to pay court to Trump World to gain its blessing. “They’re positioning themselves as the best people to work with. And people who would consent to many of the things that Zelensky isn’t consenting to,” the Republican expert said."
Source- politico.eu/article/donald…
Of note, Zelensky currently leads in future election polling. His primary challenger, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is arguably more of a war hawk.
LINK
quote:
Macron met with Hungary`s PM Orbán yesterday at the Élysée Palace in Paris
Previously, Viktor Orbán threatened to derail today's EU summit and block new support for Ukraine. While The EU wants to strip Hungary`s voting power which has prevented the passage of votes on aid to Ukraine.
LINK
quote:
Our @newshour report tonight on the end of intelligence and information sharing to Ukraine:
One US official and a Congressional official understand that “imminent force protection” has been exempted–suggesting air defense cooperation continues.
Two Congressional official and one military official confirm the US has paused the assistance that allows Ukrainian strikes into Russia to be more precise. Ukraine can still launch those strikes, but they will be less accurate without US assistance.
The US also helps with targeting assistance for Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine fighting on the frontline. It’s not clear if that assistance is being paused.
But bottom line, a US official tells me depending on the extent and length of the pause, quote, “it will cost Ukrainian lives.”
LINK
quote:
The U.S. has suspended all intelligence sharing with Ukraine — therefore, France is offering its own intelligence to Kyiv, says French Defense Minister Lecornu
LINK
quote:
Ankara is ready to discuss its contribution to a possible peacekeeping mission to Ukraine if it helps "stability".
LINK
quote:
After France Germany discuss sending troops to Ukraine, Russian FM put out a statement:
“Russia will not tolerate any NATO troops in Ukraine”
LINK
Posted on 3/6/25 at 6:38 am to StormyMcMan
So does the Trump administration want another coup?
The irony would be lost on the pro-Russia bunch here
The irony would be lost on the pro-Russia bunch here
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:09 am to VolSquatch
Ironically what is driving those that are worried about nuclear proliferation and a subsequent nuclear war isn’t those missiles hitting Russia, it’s Trump threatening to pull out of Europe.
Now Europeans are all thinking about how they can defend themselves against Russia.
Logically so are Japan and Taiwan except they are worried about China.
Trump is doing way more to destabilize the world order Reagan orchestrated than a few hundred missiles hitting industrial sites deep inside Russia.
Now Europeans are all thinking about how they can defend themselves against Russia.
Logically so are Japan and Taiwan except they are worried about China.
Trump is doing way more to destabilize the world order Reagan orchestrated than a few hundred missiles hitting industrial sites deep inside Russia.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 7:45 am
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:22 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Give me an example of this analysis.
John Helin reposted a really good thread about it a while back. He agreed with the premise as well. I don't remember the OP so it would be hard to find unless you want to doom scroll through Helin's feed.
It was essentially saying that the strikes inside Russia were FAR more politically important than practically in terms of helping Ukraine's war effort, and in the end they didn't really move the needle politically either. Russia didn't do anything operationally different or propose both sides end long range strikes due to the pressure. Even at the time it didn't make sense because its not like they have an endless supply of those weapons.
Outside of the ability to hit important targets on the actual front with deadly accuracy had they repurposed those weapons (which is all the reason to do it by itself) it also would have been a morale boost for the troops to see Russian positions get hit.
quote:
I don't buy the notion that Russia was concerned about escalation because they were the first to bring up nuclear rhetoric long before Ukraine was striking deep into Russian territory. It seems a more convenient excuse than it is an actual reason for escalation.
I don't think sabre ratting is much evidence of them not being concerned with escalation, but I was talking about the risk from our perspective of allowing the strikes. It seems either US brass agreed with me on the risk or they agreed with the premise that Ukraine should use those weapons to help them on the front. Maybe a bit of both.. Thankfully it hasn't escalated yet.
My big problem with it escalation wise was the permissions issue. Had they just given Ukraine the weapons and said "these are Ukraine's now, they can use them how they want" you can avoid this entire situation. But how it actually happened is that we had to eventually greenlight it, so in my mind we become more complicit in it vs just giving them weapons and stepping back.
quote:
The problem now is that we don't know what the line is between nuclear blackmail and the actual point where Russia will use nuclear weapons. If they didn't use it to actually protect a piece of their own sovereign territory, and didn't use it the several other times they threatened it, then what is the line where they will use it?
That's the trillion dollar question, and it plays right into Russia's hand that we have to ask it.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:23 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Our @newshour report tonight on the end of intelligence and information sharing to Ukraine: One US official and a Congressional official understand that “imminent force protection” has been exempted–suggesting air defense cooperation continues. Two Congressional official and one military official confirm the US has paused the assistance that allows Ukrainian strikes into Russia to be more precise. Ukraine can still launch those strikes, but they will be less accurate without US assistance. The US also helps with targeting assistance for Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine fighting on the frontline. It’s not clear if that assistance is being paused. But bottom line, a US official tells me depending on the extent and length of the pause, quote, “it will cost Ukrainian lives.”
Thanks for the post. Let's look at this from a standpoint of not what they are saying, but how. It has not been announced by the White House but has been leaked.
Notice that we all found out about the cuts in cyber activity aimed at Russia and the shutdown of intelligence sharing with Ukraine not from the White House, but through the effected agencies. As Trump loves nothing better to take credit, due or not, why didn't we hear about these moves from the White House? Not even any posts on his social media channels.
Why? Again, they know there's a huge difference between 'saving US tax dollars' by cutting weapons to Ukraine and cutting cyber warfare aimed at Putin and intelligence sharing with the Ukrainians. The first may be justified to the MAGA crowd, but not the second two. Those two are the smoking gun in the Putin / Trump plan. The traitorous deceit is impossible to hide.
So out comes the KGB handbook. Oldie but goodie. Plant stories that at first deflect criticism of the action in a positive manner to the audience. Then secondly, plant stories that seemingly contradict each other. Continue planting contradictory narratives over and over until the audience gets tired of trying to figure out what is going on and just quits caring. KGB wins.
Here we have leaks from unidentified 'inside sources'. Almost as bad as an LSU coaching search. These sources give good news today to the majority of Americans that are against traitorous activity in the White House and are for supporting Ukraine. But focus on two things - in spite of having a President that is in love with media attention, the handlers have kept Donnie quiet about these two issues. They know how politically damaging collusion with the enemy can be. Secondly, watch the news for the next week. We can expect multiple chops and changes with this narrative.
"The Ukrainians can target outside of the occupied territories."
Next, "The Ukrainians cannot target outside of the occupied territories."
Next, "There's no cuts in intelligence about approaching Russian drones targeting Ukrainian civilians."
Next, "We don't know about intelligence about approaching Russian drones targeting Ukrainian civilians."
Next, "What drones?"
When you find yourself getting angry at the confusion, the Putin / Trump team is winning. Don't buy the denial, keep your eye on the traitor.
PS: Apologies for the redundancy: "Russian drones targeting civilians."
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:30 am to VolSquatch
quote:
It was essentially saying that the strikes inside Russia were FAR more politically important than practically in terms of helping Ukraine's war effort, and in the end they didn't really move the needle politically either. Russia didn't do anything operationally different or propose both sides end long range strikes due to the pressure. Even at the time it didn't make sense because its not like they have an endless supply of those weapons
I thought it did force the Russians to move their supply lines deeper into Russia, which is a good strategic goal for the Ukrainians. I suppose outside of that, the threat of their use is important for keeping Russian logistics from operating closer to the front.
quote:
My big problem with it escalation wise was the permissions issue. Had they just given Ukraine the weapons and said "these are Ukraine's now, they can use them how they want" you can avoid this entire situation. But how it actually happened is that we had to eventually greenlight it, so in my mind we become more complicit in it vs just giving them weapons and stepping back
This comes back to my belief that you can't really 'manage' a conflict like the Biden admin attempted to do. Because I just don't see the connection between Russia's rhetoric and on the ground escalation. If they aren't connected, then it is just another tool the Russians use to sow distrust in the alliance.
quote:
That's the trillion dollar question, and it plays right into Russia's hand that we have to ask it.
I think the facts on the ground suggests there is a large disconnect between what occurs on the battlefield and what the Russians say. Maybe the Russians never plan on using nukes offensively because of the severe risk it poses to themselves, which is why they use the rhetoric so freely and divorced from actual battlefield conditions.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:31 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Four senior members of President Trump’s entourage have secretly met with Ukrainian opposition leaders on potentially holding early elections to unseat Zelensky, per Politico.
Again, thanks for the post. Let's focus not on the heinous breakage of any and all international rights this action represents, but on the word, "secretly". We well know why Putin / Trump wish to keep it secret, but it leaked anyway. Someone called Politico and dropped a dime on the four assholes. Hard to cover stink like that.
So much for the Putin / Trump diplomatic expertise. With Donnie in the White House and after the fiasco last Friday, any American showing up in Ukraine now will be followed 24/7. The Ukrainian secret service will know everything they do and everyone they talk to and what they talk about. Holy shite, Putin must not have known about this genius move. He knows better. Sounds like more of that book smart tech billionaire thinking.
This post was edited on 3/6/25 at 7:57 am
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:50 am to crazy4lsu
Do we know exactly the repercussions inside Russia if all these industrial hits. Some would have to believe they are crippling the economy; while others maintain that they are no big deal.
But we don’t know the truth.
Thin sbout that too. I live in BR and I believe as a citizen Id be really upset if a couple f three missiles lit up a unit here at the Exxon refinery. Do we really know how all this is affecting the Russian economy and morale?
Unlike the West Putin doesn’t put their cards on the table; whereas whatever we do is out there.
But we don’t know the truth.
Thin sbout that too. I live in BR and I believe as a citizen Id be really upset if a couple f three missiles lit up a unit here at the Exxon refinery. Do we really know how all this is affecting the Russian economy and morale?
Unlike the West Putin doesn’t put their cards on the table; whereas whatever we do is out there.
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:50 am to VolSquatch
quote:
GOPtittybaby was one of the worst offenders. He was probably smart to leave before being exposed as completely non-credible. Others are sticking around for the punishment for now.
This
Posted on 3/6/25 at 7:52 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
I thought it did force the Russians to move their supply lines deeper into Russia, which is a good strategic goal for the Ukrainians. I suppose outside of that, the threat of their use is important for keeping Russian logistics from operating closer to the front.
You're right. Any claim that the strikes were not effective is promoting a narrative that does not agree with the facts on the ground.
US halting intelligence sharing could intensify Russian airstrikes on Ukraine – ISW
The halt in intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine could significantly strengthen Russian aviation, which has so far been severely restricted due to Ukrainian strikes on military targets in Russia’s rear. This could impact the course of hostilities by increasing the frequency and effectiveness of Russian aerial attacks.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: ISW experts noted that without access to US intelligence, Ukraine will have fewer opportunities to target Russian air defence systems. Russian aircraft will be able to operate more aggressively, reducing the distance required to launch glide bombs and missiles on Ukrainian territory.
"The Kremlin has repeatedly insisted on an end to the provision of all foreign assistance to Ukraine as part of any peace agreement," ISW said.
ISW emphasised that Ukrainian strikes on military targets within Russia had significantly affected the combat capability of Russian forces. In particular, the destruction of ammunition depots in the town of Toropets (Tver Oblast) and the Tikhoretsk arsenal (Krasnodar Oblast) has reduced missile and shell supplies, weakening the Russian army’s capabilities.
Quote: "Russian forces previously leveraged their quantitative artillery ammunition advantage and glide bomb strikes to facilitate battlefield gains by destroying settlements before deploying infantry to attack the area.
Ukrainian strikes against military targets in Russia also pushed Russian aircraft operations further from Ukraine into Russia's rear areas, hindering Russia's ability to conduct glide bomb and missile strikes against Ukrainian frontline positions from Russian airspace."
Ukrainska Pravda
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