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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:26 am to
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:26 am to
quote:

Russia can’t keep slugging it out another couple of years.



Ukraine can?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:42 am to
quote:

Ukraine can?


Russia's economy cannot take it much longer plus they run out of armor either this year or next year. Also tubes for its artillery are not so plentiful any longer.

That being said, it depends on the support Ukraine gets from the West.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:45 am to
quote:

Yeah giving up 50% of all revenues from future Minerals, Oil, and Gas and no Security Guarantees is a great deal


Better than 100% given up to Russia if you understand basic primary school arithmetic much less math.

As Trump once told Putin, it would be a shame for those gold domes to be destroyed.
Posted by sta4ever
Member since Aug 2014
17656 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:52 am to
quote:

If the US is receiving 50% of a lot of money are they less likely or more likely to fight to keep their investment?


If there’s one thing that isn’t debatable, it’s that the US will protect its resources that contribute to its economy. The US would in some fashion, have its military in the way of any threat to its resources. The sovereignty and existence of a nation and protecting that can be debatable in this country, but no matter who the president is, for the last 80+ years and for the foreseeable future, the US will always use its military to protect its natural resources.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5643 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:56 am to
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 8:59 am to
FTR, the business for the USA since its founding has always been about business.
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:03 am to
The Rat heads to Washington
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:05 am to
quote:

If there’s one thing that isn’t debatable, it’s that the US will protect its resources that contribute to its economy.


Trump is doing this because its convenient and low hanging fruit, not because we can't source it elsewhere.

It would be good for the economy, sure.

Good enough to defend with the military? No way.

"rare earths" aren't rare enough to be worth it.

We are in our own way in terms of just mining it in the US in a lot of cases. I've heard some VC guys say they were going to get operations going in California but the sea of red tape was just too hard to navigate for now.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42603 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:21 am to
quote:

Ukraine can?


Of course not, but properly supplied they can defend. If they can keep Russia creeping West as long as they have the will; I believe they can hold on for quite awhile.

Neither side can keep this up forever, but I can’t see Ukraine throwing in the towel unless Europe does and especially not if the US keeps helping.

Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41298 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:28 am to
Has Zelensky ever visited troops in combat or been anywhere near combat?
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Or you could get someone who is just as much or more of a warhawk, 


From everything I read no matter who is leading Russia, Ukraine will always be a red line. Russia was invaded 3 times through Ukraine, it's a Existential threat to them because of the History.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42603 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Has Zelensky ever visited troops in combat or been anywhere near combat?


Reports say he has.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:32 am to
quote:

plus they run out of armor either this year or next year.




NAFO trolls on Twitter have been saying this since 2023
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:48 am to
quote:

plus they run out of armor either this year or next year.




NAFO trolls on Twitter have been saying this since 2023


Couple things on this:

This is a very "vibes" point, but it does seem like you are seeing a lot less Russian armor, both being destroyed and just in videos from the front lines.

We know Russia is building more armor.

I think there is a chicken/egg argument to be made in regards to Russian vehicles... are we seeing less because drones took out so many that they are almost out? Or are we seeing less because the drones are so effective that Russia wants to save them in the event of the Ukraine's lines collapsing? I think you can make compelling arguments either way.

I don't think they have a ton of vehicles at this point, but I'm also not sure that they are running out.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15665 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:50 am to
Russia does NOT have the industrial capacity it had as the USSR, in large because Ukraine is not part of it any longer with its tank factories
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Ukraine is not part of it any longer with its tank factories


They should have used their own instead of begging daddy Uncle Sam for them, then
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42603 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 10:09 am to
quote:

I don't think they have a ton of vehicles at this point, but I'm also not sure that they are running out.


Same we here. Sure they are using ip armor, but they are making more; however, like you said, the war had evolved with drones such that armor isn’t all it use to be.

This is where the failure of Russia to gain air superiority is really telling. Tanks need support. They can’t go it alone.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 10:14 am to
I asked ChatGPT about what manufacturing capabilities Russia lost when Ukraine became independent:

quote:

When Ukraine became independent in 1991, Russia lost access to a significant portion of the Soviet Union's military-industrial complex, including major shipyards, tank factories, and aerospace manufacturers. Here are some key facilities that were lost:

1. Shipbuilding Industry
Mykolaiv Shipyards: Ukraine had some of the Soviet Union’s most advanced shipbuilding facilities, particularly in Mykolaiv (Nikolaev), which built aircraft carriers and large warships.
Black Sea Shipyard (Chernomorsky Zavod) – Built Soviet aircraft carriers, including Admiral Kuznetsov (Russia’s only operational carrier today).
61 Kommunara Shipyard – Built destroyers and cruisers.
Ocean Shipyard – Focused on civilian and military vessels.
Kherson Shipyard: Produced support vessels and merchant ships but also had military applications.
Sevastopol Shipyards (Crimea): Though Russia took Crimea in 2014, Ukraine initially controlled these shipyards, which were crucial for servicing and maintaining the Black Sea Fleet.

2. Aerospace and Missile Industry
Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) – Dnipro: One of the largest rocket and missile manufacturers in the USSR, producing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), satellite launch vehicles, and space systems.
Developed the R-36 ICBM (NATO reporting name: SS-18 "Satan"), one of the most powerful nuclear missiles ever made.
Built the Zenit space launch vehicle.
Antonov Design Bureau (Kyiv): The legendary aircraft manufacturer, responsible for transport aircraft such as:
An-124 Ruslan (largest military transport aircraft in service).
An-225 Mriya (world’s largest aircraft, destroyed in 2022).
Various strategic and tactical transport aircraft.

3. Tank and Armored Vehicle Industry
Malyshev Factory (Kharkiv): Produced many of the Soviet Union’s tanks, including:
T-64 (precursor to the T-80).
T-80UD (diesel-powered version of the T-80).
Oplot (modernized version of the T-84, based on T-80 technology).
Ukraine continued tank production, while Russia had to develop new production lines.

4. Engine Manufacturing
Motor Sich (Zaporizhzhia): A major producer of aircraft and helicopter engines.
Provided engines for Russian Mi-8, Mi-24, Mi-26, and Ka-52 helicopters.
Supplied jet engines for Russian trainers and transport planes.
Russia was heavily dependent on Motor Sich for years and had to scramble to replace Ukrainian engines after 2014.
Zorya-Mashproekt (Mykolaiv): A leading manufacturer of naval gas turbines for warships.
Russia’s navy relied on these turbines for frigates, destroyers, and corvettes.
After losing access to these in 2014, Russian naval shipbuilding slowed down drastically, particularly for the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates.

5. Electronic and Radar Systems
Ukraine housed many electronics and radar manufacturers, including components for Russian fighter jets, air defense systems, and space systems.
Kvant-Radiolokatsiya (Kyiv): Developed advanced radars, including those used in air defense and naval applications.
Strategic Impact on Russia

Losing these facilities crippled several Russian military programs, forcing Moscow to:

Rebuild lost capabilities domestically, which has taken years.
Seek alternative suppliers (China, Iran, etc.).
Modify existing designs to use Russian-made components, often leading to delays and reduced capabilities.

Conclusion
Ukraine’s military-industrial complex was deeply integrated into the Soviet system, and Russia’s loss of it was a major blow, particularly in shipbuilding, missile technology, tank production, and aircraft engines. While Russia has managed to recover in some areas, others—such as naval gas turbines and advanced tank production—have remained problematic.


This response just addresses what Russia lost when Ukraine split, it does not cover what Russia has done to replace these lost capabilities. So I asked ChatGPT how Russia's MIC has worked to address these losses, I will post that response in a reply to this post.


Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 10:14 am to
What Russia has replaced to date

quote:

Russia has worked to replace many of the military-industrial capabilities lost after Ukraine’s independence, with varying degrees of success. Here’s a breakdown of which lost capabilities have been replaced, which remain problematic, and how Russia has adapted.

1. Shipbuilding (Partially Replaced)
Lost: Mykolaiv and Sevastopol Shipyards (Ukraine)
Russia lost its ability to build large aircraft carriers, advanced warships, and gas turbines for naval vessels.
The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s only aircraft carrier, was built in Mykolaiv and has suffered maintenance issues due to the loss of Ukrainian expertise.
Replacement Efforts:
Shipbuilding moved to Russian yards (St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Severodvinsk, Komsomolsk-on-Amur, and Vladivostok).
Severnaya Verf (St. Petersburg) and Baltic Shipyard have taken over production of new frigates and corvettes.
Yantar Shipyard (Kaliningrad) builds amphibious ships.
Sevmash (Severodvinsk) continues nuclear submarine production.
Challenges:
Russia cannot build aircraft carriers—there is no replacement for the lost Mykolaiv facility.
Frigate production was delayed due to the loss of Ukrainian-built gas turbines (see below).

2. Naval Gas Turbines (Replaced, But With Delays)
Lost: Zorya-Mashproekt (Mykolaiv)
Ukraine provided gas turbines for Russian warships (e.g., Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates and other large vessels).
After 2014, Russia could not receive these engines, causing major delays in warship production.
Replacement Efforts:
Russia developed domestic naval gas turbines at NPO Saturn (Rybinsk, Russia).
By 2021, Russia had replaced Ukrainian turbines in its new warships.
Challenges:
The Russian replacements took nearly a decade to develop and produce.
Production rates are lower than before 2014, slowing down new ship construction.

3. Aerospace and Missile Technology (Partially Replaced)
Lost: Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash, Dnipro)
Ukraine was a key producer of ICBMs, space launch vehicles, and satellite components.
The R-36 ICBM (“Satan”), the most powerful Soviet-era nuclear missile, was built in Ukraine.
Replacement Efforts:
Russia developed the RS-28 Sarmat (“Satan II”), replacing the R-36 ICBM.
ICBM production moved to Votkinsk Machine Building Plant (Russia).
Challenges:
The new Sarmat ICBM was significantly delayed, only entering operational service in 2023.
Russia lost access to Ukrainian satellite components, making some space systems harder to maintain.

4. Aircraft and Helicopter Engines (Partially Replaced)
Lost: Motor Sich (Zaporizhzhia)
Motor Sich provided engines for Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-24, Ka-52) and fixed-wing aircraft.
Russia depended on Ukraine for turbofan engines used in An-124 and An-225 transport aircraft.
Replacement Efforts:
Russia developed domestic helicopter engines at Klimov (St. Petersburg).
The VK-2500 engine replaced Ukrainian helicopter engines.
Challenges:
The transition was slow, and helicopter production suffered from severe delays.
The An-124 Ruslan (heavy transport aircraft) still lacks a full Russian-built replacement for its engines.
Russia attempted to buy Motor Sich through Chinese proxies, but Ukraine blocked the sale.

5. Tank and Armored Vehicle Production (Mostly Replaced)
Lost: Malyshev Factory (Kharkiv)
The T-64, T-80UD, and early T-84 tanks were built in Ukraine.
Ukraine also made key tank optics, targeting systems, and armor components.
Replacement Efforts:
Russia shifted tank production to Uralvagonzavod (Nizhny Tagil, Russia).
Russia produces T-90 and T-72 variants, replacing T-80UD imports.
Challenges:
Early T-80 production suffered from lack of Ukrainian components (Russia later modified it with local parts).
Russian tanks lack some advanced optics and thermal imaging systems that were previously sourced from Ukraine.
Sanctions forced Russia to rely on lower-quality electronics, impacting tank effectiveness.

6. Radar and Electronics (Not Fully Replaced)
Lost: Kvant-Radiolokatsiya (Kyiv)
Ukraine supplied radar and targeting systems for some Russian warplanes and missile systems.
Replacement Efforts:
Russia has domestic radar manufacturers, such as Phazotron-NIIR and Almaz-Antey.
Challenges:
Many modern Russian systems still depend on Western electronics (which are now sanctioned).
Russia has turned to China and Iran for electronic components.


Conclusion
Russia has replaced many lost capabilities but with delays and lower efficiency.
Shipbuilding, engines, and electronic components remain weak points.
Sanctions have made replacements harder, forcing Russia to turn to China, Iran, and smuggling.
ICBMs, tanks, and helicopters are back in production, but often with lower-quality components.
Russia is now more self-sufficient than it was in 2014, but its military-industrial base is still weaker than during the Soviet era.
This post was edited on 2/28/25 at 10:16 am
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42603 posts
Posted on 2/28/25 at 10:16 am to
quote:

They should have used their own instead of begging daddy Uncle Sam for them, then


Why? They have their own and some of ours and some from the Europeans.

Ukraine has defended themselves quite well for three years considering who they were up against. Sure there were mistakes, but they have defended well.

The US wasn’t always a super power. Ben Franklin begged France for help. His efforts paid off and we won our independence. Chamberlain and Stalin relied on us for help. We kept them going in WWII.

Zekensky would be an idiot if he didn’t solicit help from the West.
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