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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:34 pm to John Barron
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:34 pm to John Barron
Sounds like the Ukrainian troops locked up with them again after they broke through the front lines and met the N Koreans in the rear.
1
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:38 pm to cypher
relevant paywalled article summarized by the Kyiv Independent...
US sanctions strain Russia’s oil exports as shipping costs surge, Bloomberg reports
by Olena Goncharova February 8, 2025 1:48 AM
Russia is facing a significant oil transportation crisis due to recent U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee.
On Jan. 10, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned 161 oil tankers involved in transporting Russian crude, adding to a series of measures imposed by the Biden administration. These restrictions, which President Donald Trump has yet to relax, have already caused a sharp increase in shipping costs for Russian oil exports.
The impact of these sanctions is evident in the rising cost of securing tankers to transport Russia’s Urals crude to Asia. Data from Argus Media shows a nearly 50% surge in freight rates since the measures took effect. The difference between the price of Russian oil at export and its delivered price in Asia—an indicator of shipping costs—has also spiked.
Freight costs have already surged, with the expense of shipping a barrel of Russian crude from the Black Sea to India now at $10, while transport from the Baltic costs as much as $13 per barrel. While these rates are not yet at the peak levels seen after the initial G7 price cap, they have jumped by 48% since Jan. 10.
With Russian oil shipments becoming increasingly difficult, the country’s ability to maintain its export levels may come under serious strain. If the recent shipping bottlenecks continue to expand, the sanctions could deal a severe blow to Russia’s energy trade, exacerbating its economic challenges.
The Kyiv Independent
US sanctions strain Russia’s oil exports as shipping costs surge, Bloomberg reports
by Olena Goncharova February 8, 2025 1:48 AM
Russia is facing a significant oil transportation crisis due to recent U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee.
On Jan. 10, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned 161 oil tankers involved in transporting Russian crude, adding to a series of measures imposed by the Biden administration. These restrictions, which President Donald Trump has yet to relax, have already caused a sharp increase in shipping costs for Russian oil exports.
The impact of these sanctions is evident in the rising cost of securing tankers to transport Russia’s Urals crude to Asia. Data from Argus Media shows a nearly 50% surge in freight rates since the measures took effect. The difference between the price of Russian oil at export and its delivered price in Asia—an indicator of shipping costs—has also spiked.
Freight costs have already surged, with the expense of shipping a barrel of Russian crude from the Black Sea to India now at $10, while transport from the Baltic costs as much as $13 per barrel. While these rates are not yet at the peak levels seen after the initial G7 price cap, they have jumped by 48% since Jan. 10.
With Russian oil shipments becoming increasingly difficult, the country’s ability to maintain its export levels may come under serious strain. If the recent shipping bottlenecks continue to expand, the sanctions could deal a severe blow to Russia’s energy trade, exacerbating its economic challenges.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:39 pm to doubleb
ISW Update Feb 7 2025
1 year ago
2 years ago
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during mechanized assaults in their salient in Kursk Oblast on February 6, but Russian sources claimed on February 6 and 7 that Russian forces have at least temporarily stalled Ukrainian advances southeast of Sudzha.
The Kremlin continues to conduct an information campaign likely directed toward both domestic and international audiences that aims to conceal the extent to which Russia's protracted war against Ukraine has negatively affected Russia's economy.
Ukrainian military officials continue to highlight the country’s growing drone production capacity and its effectiveness on the battlefield but acknowledged that Ukraine must address its force generation issues to fully stop Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.
Interim Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra stated in an interview with the Washington Post that Syria is open to Russia retaining its air and naval bases in Syria if there are “benefits” for Syria.
Azerbaijan-Russia relations continue to sour following Russia’s refusal to take full responsibility for the December 25, 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane, likely shot mid-air by Russian air defense before crashing in Aktau, Kazakhstan
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers appointed Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk and Captain Valeriy Churkin as Deputy Defense Ministers on February 7.
Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Toretsk.
The Russian government continues to use its "Time of Heroes" program to appoint veterans of the war in Ukraine to regional government positions.
1 year ago
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted the second largest combined drone and missile strike of 2024 on the morning of February 7. The February 7 strike package is emblematic of the constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race in which Russia and Ukraine are engaged.
Russia targeted Kyiv City during the February 7 strike for the third time thus far in 2024, notably coinciding with EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell’s visit to Kyiv.
Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued his nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric likely aimed in part at deterring Western aid to Ukraine.
The Russian Federation Council approved a bill on February 7 that allows the Russian government to confiscate property from individuals convicted of spreading “fake” information about the Russian military, likely as part of ongoing censorship efforts to limit criticisms of Russia’s war effort ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential election.
Yandex NV — the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex — announced that it will sell all of its Russian assets for 475 billion rubles (about $5.2 billion) to a purchasing consortium consisting of five Russian companies.
Russian forces made confirmed gains west of Horlivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on February 7 that Russia is mobilizing citizens from Syria who come to Russia under the guise of security guard jobs at oil refineries.
Russian occupation authorities continue to militarize Ukrainian children and youth in occupied Ukraine.
2 years ago
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is likely attempting to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.
Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.
The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline.
Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalize state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine non-state private military companies (PMCs).
The Kremlin may be implementing some demands previously voiced by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies.
The Russian State Duma further formalized the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut.
Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains on the southern axis.
Russian officials appear to be investing in railway infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics.
The Russian MoD is reportedly proposing a bill to allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to voluntarily participate in Russian peacekeeping missions.
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:42 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's just harder and harder to justify time spent here.
You’re a grown man crying because not everyone agrees with you. Get ahold of yourself damn
Posted on 2/7/25 at 7:46 pm to StormyMcMan
Looks like Ukrainian manpower has reached a critical stage
"Zelensky has confirmed plans to send Ukrainian youth into the military.
With mobilization struggling and the Ukrainian army facing heavy daily losses, Zelensky is now turning to young people aged 18-24 to fill the ranks. Once seen as the nation's future and kept in reserve, they’re now being called up.
He’s framing this as “special conditions for contract service,” claiming it will be voluntary, but volunteers under 25 were already recruited before—though that pool has dried up."
"Zelensky has confirmed plans to send Ukrainian youth into the military.
With mobilization struggling and the Ukrainian army facing heavy daily losses, Zelensky is now turning to young people aged 18-24 to fill the ranks. Once seen as the nation's future and kept in reserve, they’re now being called up.
He’s framing this as “special conditions for contract service,” claiming it will be voluntary, but volunteers under 25 were already recruited before—though that pool has dried up."
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/7/25 at 8:33 pm to texag7
quote:
You’re a grown man crying because not everyone agrees with you. Get ahold of yourself damn
Incorrect, as always. I'm annoyed and a bit sad because I'd like to actually have conversations about things like the new sea drones that the UK has developed for Ukraine. You weren't here, so you don't know, but we actually used to do that kind of thing. This thread wasn't a Poliboard thread, but instead a place where people talked about weapons and tactics and strategy.
But if I were to make a post now about the new sea drones, there would be five pages of Lord Bebo tweets before anyone else wanted to talk about the sea drones. It's like trying to have a conversation 20 feet away from a jet engine -- the noise just drowns everything out and makes it impossible to have a real conversation.
Posted on 2/7/25 at 8:54 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You weren't here, so you don't know, but we actually used to do that kind of thing. This thread wasn't a Poliboard thread, but instead a place where people talked about weapons and tactics and strategy.
I've said before in the thread that I am far more interested in the "war" and how it is being prosecuted by both sides than I am in Ukraine vs Russia.
I'm a child of the Cold War; I don't trust or like Russia, which drives my anti-Russian bias. It isn't support of Ukraine as much as it is rooting against Russia.
I concur with your commentary re my son JB's posting. It's killing the thread, which I am sure is what its goal is. I gave up on any chance of moderation a long time ago, but I do wish there was an ignore feature.
Posted on 2/7/25 at 8:58 pm to John Barron
quote:
Looks like Ukrainian manpower has reached a critical stage
"Zelensky has confirmed plans to send Ukrainian youth into the military.
Russia reached a critical stage in 2023.
quote:
One year of military service was previously required by Russian men ages 18 to 27 with conscriptions held twice a year. But starting in 2024, that call-up category will be extended by three years, significantly broadening the pool of young men who are now eligible for Russia's one year of compulsory service.
They were taking “youth” into their service and were falling short and had to raise the age up to 30.
From 2023
Why is it bad for Ukraine to draft “youth”, but not Russia?
Posted on 2/7/25 at 9:26 pm to doubleb
quote:
Why is it bad for Ukraine to draft “youth”, but not Russia?
Seems like his propaganda may have been successful in leading you to think Zelensky was discussing a draft for 18 year olds. That is not what Zelensky said. The basis for the JB propaganda is at the very end of a Reuters Zelensky interview article. here is what was printed related to manpower.
"Next week, the government intends to launch lucrative recruitment contracts to entice young men aged 18-24 - below draft age - into the armed forces to help ease a manpower shortage. Zelenskiy declined to say how many men were expected to sign up."
Here is the Reuters article.
Reuters
This post was edited on 2/7/25 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 2/7/25 at 9:32 pm to cypher
The US drafted 18 year olds. When the nation is at risk that’s what is necessary.
If Ukraine is in need of troops, then they should do what is necessary to defend their nation.
If Ukraine is in need of troops, then they should do what is necessary to defend their nation.
Posted on 2/7/25 at 10:05 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 2/7/25 at 10:07 pm to John Barron
Russian forces continued their rapid advance in Andriivka, and captured most of the central part of the village.
They advanced from their new positions in the southern streets, down the highway, capturing the intersection with the highway that leads to Kostyantynopil. They then moved further west, entering the western residential areas of the village.
Another advance was made along the street to the north, resulting in some of the buildings in the village centre being captured.
+ ~0.38km² in favour of Russia.
They advanced from their new positions in the southern streets, down the highway, capturing the intersection with the highway that leads to Kostyantynopil. They then moved further west, entering the western residential areas of the village.
Another advance was made along the street to the north, resulting in some of the buildings in the village centre being captured.
+ ~0.38km² in favour of Russia.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/7/25 at 10:15 pm to doubleb
quote:
Why is it bad for Ukraine to draft “youth”, but not Russia?
It’s the smallest age cohort they have available. And with the death toll from the war, it will retard the population recovery they need in post war years.
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:42 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Auditing and reforming U SAID would be smart. Destroying it is stupid.
It isn't being destroyed. It has been put under the control of the Dept of State.
Rubio said there were 14K employees, but only 300 are actually needed.
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You could have just folded it into the State Department. But they killed it because Elon wanted to pretend that he's saving the country by massively cutting waste and abuse, when the truth is that we are going dangerously deeper into debt every day, because the Trump administration won't touch Social Security or Medicare.
It has been moved to State.
And Elon just announced $100 billion in Medicare / Medicade waste / fraud has been uncovered.
Posted on 2/8/25 at 7:08 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But I'm getting drawn off- topic. USAID isn't about Ukraine, except marginally, and the money that was going to Ukraine is not necessary now that Ukraine is getting the $50 billion in loans from frozen Russian assets.
I hope you are right. USAID has helped keep the lights and heat on.
Since the beginning of russia’s full-scale invasion, USAID ESP has provided an impressive amount of materiel.
USAID ESP Project
This post was edited on 2/8/25 at 7:11 am
Posted on 2/8/25 at 7:21 am to cypher
the Baltics understand russia better than most...
Baltic countries disconnected from Russia's power grid
by The Kyiv Independent news desk February 8, 2025 2:29 PM
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their energy systems from Russia's electric power grid on Feb. 8 in "another historic day for European integration," the Estonian Foreign Ministry said.
"This legacy of occupation meant that Moscow - which uses energy as a weapon - had control of the frequency," the ministry said in a statement on X.
"That’s a critical element in maintaining reliable power supply. That dependency ends today!"
The Lithuanian Energy Ministry said in July 2024 that the Baltic countries would fully synchronize with the continental European electricity grid in February 2025.
The Kyiv Independent
Baltic countries disconnected from Russia's power grid
by The Kyiv Independent news desk February 8, 2025 2:29 PM
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their energy systems from Russia's electric power grid on Feb. 8 in "another historic day for European integration," the Estonian Foreign Ministry said.
"This legacy of occupation meant that Moscow - which uses energy as a weapon - had control of the frequency," the ministry said in a statement on X.
"That’s a critical element in maintaining reliable power supply. That dependency ends today!"
The Lithuanian Energy Ministry said in July 2024 that the Baltic countries would fully synchronize with the continental European electricity grid in February 2025.
The Kyiv Independent
This post was edited on 2/8/25 at 7:23 am
Posted on 2/8/25 at 8:22 am to cypher
Posted on 2/8/25 at 8:27 am to GOP_Tiger
Russian troops break through the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense on the right bank of the Oskol River, creating a threat to Kupyansk
The agency anna_news(TG) investigated the reasons for the threat to the city and the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area.
Over the past month, the Russian Armed Forces have managed not only to create a stable bridgehead, but also to expand it, occupying four settlements and developing an offensive. In some settlements, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to organize a defense, surrendering them with minimal resistance.
The clouds for the enemy are further thickened by the lack of reserves in this section of the front, which are required to at least partially stop the offensive.
Further advancement in this area could seriously threaten Kupyansk. A breakthrough on the flanks of the city could threaten the few supply routes, which could lead to serious problems with defense in this area of ??the front
The agency anna_news(TG) investigated the reasons for the threat to the city and the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area.
Over the past month, the Russian Armed Forces have managed not only to create a stable bridgehead, but also to expand it, occupying four settlements and developing an offensive. In some settlements, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to organize a defense, surrendering them with minimal resistance.
The clouds for the enemy are further thickened by the lack of reserves in this section of the front, which are required to at least partially stop the offensive.
Further advancement in this area could seriously threaten Kupyansk. A breakthrough on the flanks of the city could threaten the few supply routes, which could lead to serious problems with defense in this area of ??the front
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/8/25 at 8:51 am to John Barron
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