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1
Posted on 1/23/25 at 8:26 pm to Chromdome35
The more important acronym now is CRINK, as these folks are directly engaged in a military alliance against us.
China
Russia
Iran
North Korea
China
Russia
Iran
North Korea
Posted on 1/23/25 at 8:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
Axis of Evil 2.0. Half the band is made up of V1.0 members.
I think China will bail on Russia at some point.
I think China will bail on Russia at some point.
Posted on 1/23/25 at 8:35 pm to cypher
quote:
latest sanctions just now taking effect.
Its like Musical Chairs those barrels will just be going to other companies in India. A 10 year deal was just signed
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/23/25 at 8:43 pm to John Barron
Ukraine is facing critical manpower issues.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.
Posted on 1/23/25 at 8:55 pm to John Barron
ISW Update Jan 23
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russia is reportedly planning to deploy additional North Korean forces, missiles, artillery systems, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Kursk Oblast to support Russian long-range fire operations.
The Kremlin appears to be growing increasingly concerned about perceptions of Russia's economic instability.
Russian forces recently executed at least six unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
The Kremlin is reportedly taking measures to protect industrial facilities in Russian border regions from Ukrainian strikes.
Posted on 1/23/25 at 9:55 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Germany didn't execute blitzkrieg by walking infantry; they used armor, mechanized infantry, and air superiority to achieve rapid advances. Russia has demonstrated repeatedly in this war that they can't execute mechanized warfare...they aren't going to magically start now.
Very much agree. The Russians have had their worst periods of the war when they've attempted rapid advances: their tanks and APCs got decimated and their soldiers sustained massive casualties while the Ukes sustained comparatively light casualties. And the quality of the Russian armor and Russian soldiers has fallen dramatically since 2022. Many of the T72s and T90s have been replaced by T55s and T62s, and the hyped T14s have not really appeared on the battlefield (to say nothing of, e.g., the Su-57s staying far behind the lines). Many of the better-trained, longer-serving professional Russian soldiers have been replaced by raw recruits and released prisoners. So the prospect of a rapid Russian advance without there first being some massive loss of support for Ukraine seems pretty unlikely. And yes, the Ukes are (like the Russians) having problems with manpower / recruiting, but whatever Oxford Pledges (Wiki) you might think are occurring, when put to it, I think enough of them will be willing to fight to resist what the Russians are doing to their country to forestall any Ukrainian collapse.
Posted on 1/23/25 at 10:16 pm to StormyMcMan
JB needs to send that Bloomberg slide to Solovyov
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 1/23/25 at 10:18 pm
Posted on 1/23/25 at 10:45 pm to John Barron
Posted on 1/23/25 at 10:46 pm to John Barron
Posted on 1/24/25 at 12:03 am to John Barron
That is assuming no discounts. Now subtract the $50 per barrel cost for Russian crude to produce and get to point of export. That is NOT $13 billion in profit The income is a few billion a year.
Nice try to impress the clueless.
Nice try to impress the clueless.
This post was edited on 1/24/25 at 12:06 am
Posted on 1/24/25 at 12:41 am to CitizenK
quote:
Now subtract the $50 per barrel cost for Russian crude to produce and get to point of export.
it's also being reported that the latest sanctions have increased their shipping costs...
Some 70% of the oil tankers that Russia used to ship crude from Kozmino have been slapped with sanctions, per Bloomberg’s estimates.
This has likely prompted Moscow and the traders it works with to withdraw tankers servicing the western Russian ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk and redeploy them on the Far East-China routes.
The freight rates for shipping ESPO crude on the Kozmino-East China route have tripled since the U.S. sanctions were announced on January 10.
Following the latest U.S. sanctions, supertanker rates doubled in a week and pushed up the cost of hiring Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, too.
Fleet capacity to service Russian exports is expected to tighten significantly, according to Mary Melton, a freight analyst at Vortexa. The most likely scenario for Russian crude exports going forward is that they will most likely face serious logistical difficulty due to the lack of available tonnage, according to Vortexa.
Russia Reshuffles Tankers to Keep Shipping Oil to China After US Sanctions
Posted on 1/24/25 at 12:47 am to cypher
I don't pretend to know anything about international crude oil markets.
Are you saying that the latest sanctions are targeting the shipping fleet that transports Russian oil around the world?
Are you saying that the latest sanctions are targeting the shipping fleet that transports Russian oil around the world?
Posted on 1/24/25 at 12:50 am to cypher
seems to be the case...
Asian Refiners Consider Output Cuts on Cost Surge
By Irina Slav - Jan 23, 2025, 1:01 AM CST
Asian refiners are considering a reduction in run rates due to the hike in crude oil prices following the latest U.S. sanction push against Russia, which prompted Chinese and Indian importers to rush to buy non-Russian crude.
Citing trading sources, Bloomberg reported that the effect of the sanctions in crude oil prices in Asia has been so pronounced that in some cases it has pushed refining margins below zero. Most of the refiners affected by the ripple effect of the sanctions were in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, the report noted, and normally buy Saudi crude, which is priced against benchmarks such as Oman, which is currently soaring amid the replacement rush.
In the latest sanction package, reported to be the harshest yet, the Treasury of the outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 tankers, many of them in the so-called shadow fleet Russia uses to ship its oil abroad without having to use Western vessels or insurance.
“The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more uncertainty to the (first quarter) outlook,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note at the time. Other forecasters warned of a further supply tightening in an already tight market, mostly because of the tanker sanctions. Following the release of the package, oil prices rose to highs not seen in months.
The sanctions will be most painful for India, analysts warned, as the country depends on imports for over 80% of its oil consumption and was the biggest beneficiary of affordable Russian crude, a lot of which has now become unavailable. According to Kpler, 75 of the sanctioned tankers were used to transport crude oil from Russia to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas senior commodity strategist Aldo Spanier told CNBC earlier this month.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
OilPrice.com
Asian Refiners Consider Output Cuts on Cost Surge
By Irina Slav - Jan 23, 2025, 1:01 AM CST
Asian refiners are considering a reduction in run rates due to the hike in crude oil prices following the latest U.S. sanction push against Russia, which prompted Chinese and Indian importers to rush to buy non-Russian crude.
Citing trading sources, Bloomberg reported that the effect of the sanctions in crude oil prices in Asia has been so pronounced that in some cases it has pushed refining margins below zero. Most of the refiners affected by the ripple effect of the sanctions were in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, the report noted, and normally buy Saudi crude, which is priced against benchmarks such as Oman, which is currently soaring amid the replacement rush.
In the latest sanction package, reported to be the harshest yet, the Treasury of the outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 tankers, many of them in the so-called shadow fleet Russia uses to ship its oil abroad without having to use Western vessels or insurance.
“The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more uncertainty to the (first quarter) outlook,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note at the time. Other forecasters warned of a further supply tightening in an already tight market, mostly because of the tanker sanctions. Following the release of the package, oil prices rose to highs not seen in months.
The sanctions will be most painful for India, analysts warned, as the country depends on imports for over 80% of its oil consumption and was the biggest beneficiary of affordable Russian crude, a lot of which has now become unavailable. According to Kpler, 75 of the sanctioned tankers were used to transport crude oil from Russia to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas senior commodity strategist Aldo Spanier told CNBC earlier this month.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
OilPrice.com
This post was edited on 1/24/25 at 12:54 am
Posted on 1/24/25 at 1:08 am to cypher
U.S. Sanctions Trigger Russian Oil Exodus
Middlemen who supply Russian oil have stopped offering cargoes after the latest U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration targeting Russian producers, tankers and insurers, Bharat Petroleum CFO has revealed.
"We have not received any new offers for the March window (delivery). Traders are asking us to wait. We are waiting to get offers," Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told Reuters on Wednesday.
"We are not expecting the similar number of cargoes that we used to get in the months of December and January," he added.
Earlier, India announced that it will abide by the sanctions and turn away sanctioned tankers. Previously, we reported that the sanctions would severely disrupt Russian oil exports to India and China--the biggest buyers of Russian crude--and could also give Trump more leverage in future negotiations as he tries to end the war in Ukraine.
Oilprice.com
Middlemen who supply Russian oil have stopped offering cargoes after the latest U.S. sanctions imposed by the Biden administration targeting Russian producers, tankers and insurers, Bharat Petroleum CFO has revealed.
"We have not received any new offers for the March window (delivery). Traders are asking us to wait. We are waiting to get offers," Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta told Reuters on Wednesday.
"We are not expecting the similar number of cargoes that we used to get in the months of December and January," he added.
Earlier, India announced that it will abide by the sanctions and turn away sanctioned tankers. Previously, we reported that the sanctions would severely disrupt Russian oil exports to India and China--the biggest buyers of Russian crude--and could also give Trump more leverage in future negotiations as he tries to end the war in Ukraine.
Oilprice.com
Posted on 1/24/25 at 1:29 am to cypher
Just getting around to watching the 2nd half of Hannity's interview of Trump
Video at top of article, comments on Ukraine start around 9:30
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-calls-putin-make-deal-end-its-war-against-ukraine-face-more-economic-pressure
Listen to the tone of Trump's voice in his interview with Hannity. Trump is straight-up threatening Russia. How will Putin respond to this?
Video at top of article, comments on Ukraine start around 9:30
quote:
Trump calls on Putin to make a deal, end its war against Ukraine or face more economic pressure
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-calls-putin-make-deal-end-its-war-against-ukraine-face-more-economic-pressure
quote:
President Donald Trump called for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as part of his first sit-down interview since returning to the White House, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin should never have launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.
Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity an estimated 850,000 Russian soldiers and 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the onset of the war.
"These are human beings that are just being slaughtered on this battlefield by the millions. They've already died, and the cities — the cities are like demolition sites,"
...
"Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries," Trump wrote.
He told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already told him he’s ready to negotiate an end to the war.
"He's had enough," Trump told Hannity. "He shouldn't have allowed this to happen either. You know, if he's no angel, he shouldn't have allowed this war to happen. First of all, he's fighting a much bigger entity, OK? Much bigger."
Listen to the tone of Trump's voice in his interview with Hannity. Trump is straight-up threatening Russia. How will Putin respond to this?
This post was edited on 1/24/25 at 1:51 am
Posted on 1/24/25 at 5:18 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There is no Positive News for Ukraine right now.
...says Baghdad Bob as some 300-400 drones head into Russian skies on what some Ukrainians are claiming is the single largest drone attack on Russia of the war.
And the results are in:
quote:
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOS) struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Ryazan Thermal Power Plant in an overnight drone strike on Jan. 24, an SBU source told the Kyiv Independent. The attack was later confirmed by the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
The news comes as Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 121 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 37 in Bryansk Oblast, 20 in Ryazan Oblast, and 17 in the Kursk and Saratov oblasts each.
The refinery, one of Russia’s largest, has the capacity of 17 million metric tons of oil per year. At least three oil depots and a workshop were set ablaze, according to the source.
quote:
"SBU and SOS drones also targeted an oil pumping station at the Ryazan Thermal Power Plant," the source said, without revealing details on possible consequences. Local residents reported more than 50 explosions, according to the source. Ryazan lies roughly 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of Ukraine’s border.
quote:
Drones also attacked the Kremniy EL microelectronics plant in Russia's Bryansk and other facilities in the city, the independent Telegram news channel Astra reported, citing Russian Emergencies Ministry sources.
The facility has suspended operations after sustaining hits, Kovalenko claimed, saying that the plant produces microelectronics for Russian air defenses, Iskander missiles, electronic warfare equipment, and drones.
This post was edited on 1/24/25 at 5:32 am
Posted on 1/24/25 at 5:42 am to cypher
I had no clue about cost to produce Russian crude oil until a first meeting and lunch with a Russian technology provider in the Spring of 2015. The oligarch who owns the company fled to Switzerland in 2014. Their technology for modular GTL plants was to not only form syncrude but to hydrocrack it as it was formed. That is normally a second step. At the time, natural gas prices were very low in the US and oil prices going up after the collapse. It was intended for Siberian oil wells not producing enough natural gas to justify laying pipelines to them, so it was flared. When my partner mentioned Putin, our new biz friend spoke in hushed tones looking around to see if anyone was listening in. This is when he said that the cost to produce Russian crude and get to point of export was $50 per barrel. Also, that all Russian exploration and drilling is funded by Western banking with the naphtha and diesel produced from the GTL technology used locally, for drilling fluids and fuel.
The reason that his company set up an office in Houston was it is the center of the world for oil/gas/petrochemical engineering and technology. Also, because no one would believe them if the first demonstration plant was built in Russia with results of its effectiveness recorded there, especially the company's target market, Russian companies.
My partner and I saw the opportunity for stranded natural gas in remote oilfields here in the USA, is why we met with him. Recently bit coin miners began using this "free" fuel to power mining centers via small electric power generation from gas engines and small gas turbine generators.
The reason that his company set up an office in Houston was it is the center of the world for oil/gas/petrochemical engineering and technology. Also, because no one would believe them if the first demonstration plant was built in Russia with results of its effectiveness recorded there, especially the company's target market, Russian companies.
My partner and I saw the opportunity for stranded natural gas in remote oilfields here in the USA, is why we met with him. Recently bit coin miners began using this "free" fuel to power mining centers via small electric power generation from gas engines and small gas turbine generators.
Posted on 1/24/25 at 5:52 am to CitizenK
quote:
The declining health of Russia's economy is as clear as day — or night, a finance minister said Wednesday.
Elisabeth Svantesson, the finance minister of Sweden, said she and her officials were skeptical of how Russia's official figures were describing its economy.
One measure they use instead, she said on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, is comparing photos of Moscow by night.
The lighting there, she said, was darker in 2023 than in 2021, indicating a capital and a nation in trouble.
quote:
"It's very clear that the Russian economy is definitely not as strong as Putin wants us to believe," Svantesson said.
She said that Moscow's inflation was "much higher than the public figure says." Russia's most recent figure puts it at 9.5%, which Svantesson said was out of kilter with its main interest rate of 21%.
She also said levels of capital leaving Russia suggested a struggling economy, as did the space photos of Moscow.
"There is over Moscow, for example, a much darker picture," she said.
"They're not using as much electricity," said the panel moderator, Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy.
"No, no, no. It's much darker," Svantesson said.
quote:
She concluded that "we don't know" the true state of Russia's economy, "but what we know is that his narrative and his truth is not true."
LINK
Posted on 1/24/25 at 6:13 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
"It's very clear that the Russian economy is definitely not as strong as Putin wants us to believe," Svantesson said.
This isn't unique to Putin. World leaders generally don't neg their own economy
The question actual objective thinkers ask isn't if Russia's economy is struggling, because it obviously has taken a huge hit. It's if it's struggling to the point where Russia will have to give up more in a peace deal than they otherwise would have, or if they might have to just stop (or at least seriously draw down) the operation altogether.
This post was edited on 1/24/25 at 7:26 am
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