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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/18/25 at 9:17 am to CitizenK
Posted on 1/18/25 at 9:17 am to CitizenK
quote:
And Russia hasn't lost way more?
Of course...but they expect to and can replace them better than Ukraine. Russia doesn't have an indefinite supply but who do you think can last longer in regards to troops?
1
Posted on 1/18/25 at 9:20 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
Thats why the play both sides of the bullshite. They want everything to seem like a lie.
Exactly. The overall message is not: " They are lying and we are telling the truth.". It's: "Everyone is lying all the time.. Everything that you have ever been told is a lie. Truth does not exist. The Earth is flat."
That's the message that Russia (and agents such as John Barron) constantly push. It's not true
Posted on 1/18/25 at 10:04 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Photo of Scholz and Baerbock's quarrel over money for Ukraine has become a meme
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vetoed a new €3 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, sparking outrage from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
Baerbock demonstratively walked out of the government meeting following Scholz’s decision. The Chancellor tried to stop his minister, but to no avail.
Two more clowns that will soon be on the scrap heap of history.
"As Long As It Takes!!!!!!!" - Nothing but a bumper sticker slogan.
This post was edited on 1/18/25 at 10:31 am
Posted on 1/18/25 at 10:23 am to AU86
Posted on 1/18/25 at 10:25 am to John Barron
"Ukraine is running out of Ukrainians"
This post was edited on 1/18/25 at 10:26 am
Posted on 1/18/25 at 10:27 am to John Barron
Posted on 1/18/25 at 10:29 am to John Barron
Posted on 1/18/25 at 12:16 pm to John Barron
Posted on 1/18/25 at 12:55 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
A viral twitter thread led to an article in the Financial Times last week that suggested that Russian banks face a credit crisis that might imminently collapse the Russian economy.
Unfortunately, the claims in the FT article are overhyped and fail to account for a number of factors.
Love ya GOP, but let's read it again. Everything written for the first six paragraphs is an accurate recap of the story that broke last week about the vulnerable position of Russian banks due to their greatly overextended loan books. Then - after establishing this credibility - the readers are subjected to some less than accurate logic.
The problem is that the authors are treating this situation with classical economics, applying Western independant banking theory to a situation where the banks have no independance. Russian banks are told by the Kremlin what loans to make for how much and to whom. 'Windows await for those that hesitate.' There are none of the Western protections of credit risk analysis, collateralization or reserve bank guarantees. They have just been used as a checking account for the oligarchs / siloviki, directed by Putin. In a word - looted.
Since life is short, let's just limit ourselves to paragraphs seven through nine. There are many juicy bits in the remainder of the article, but I am being pedantic enough already.
quote:
What would a deposit freeze achieve?
Right now, freezing deposits makes little sense. Lending is currently the basis of Russian economic growth, and, if accounts were frozen, then banks wouldn’t be able to extend further loans to businesses.
Firstly, oil and petroleum product exports are the current basis for Russian economic growth. If any components come from the banking sector, it is not from 'lending', it's from looting. Secondly, if accounts are frozen it would only make further funds available for the looters. Which would be the entire point of the freeze. Banks therefore 'wouldn’t be able to extend further loans to businesses' is ridiculous. They don't make these decisions, the Kremlin does. And the last thing the Kremlin is concerned with is the ability of the 'borrowers' to repay the loans. If the banks have funds, the Kremlin takes them. That's not Western banking practice.
quote:
The argument that a freeze is needed to curb inflation is also flawed: with high interest rates, a mass withdrawal of funds and increased spending seems illogical.
In the current Russian economy, interest rates and inflation have been decoupled. The classic Western economic dichotomy between the two no longer exists. In other words, the economy is out of control. Nothing the Central Bank can do - and that's precious little due to their functions being taken over by the holders of the 'debt' - can change that. Again, this situation is being judged according to Western economic rules, not Putin economic rules.
quote:
There are also doubts that a freeze could even stave off a credit crisis. Firstly, if such a crisis arises, it would make more sense for the authorities to guarantee all deposits. That would do more to protect the banking system and the economy. Secondly, Russia has fairly strict regulations designed to ensure financial stability, including large capital buffers.
Yes, a freeze cannot stave off a credit crisis. In this situation, nothing can. A freeze would do just the opposite and through the resulting bank runs only accelerate the arrival of the crisis. And we'll just let the phrases, "authorities guaranteeing all deposits" and "Russia has fairly strict regulations designed to ensure financial stability, including large capital buffers" speak for themselves. To repeat, Western rules vs. Putin rules.
Again GOP, I look forward to your posts more than anyone else on this thread. This isn't criticism directed at you, I just disagree with the article and had to open my big yap.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 12:56 pm to John Barron
latest attack in Kyiv...
Attack on Kyiv: security guard, 3 people in minibus killed
photos
18.01.2025 12:59
In Kyiv on the morning of January 18, a Russian missile attack killed a security guard at a catering establishment and three people in a minibus on the street.
Under the procedural guidance of the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office, a pre-trial investigation was initiated in criminal proceedings over a war crime that caused the death of people (Part 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).
“Four people are currently known to have been killed - a security guard of a catering facility and three people who were in a minibus on the street in one of the capital's districts,” the OGP said.
The blast wave damaged the building of the business center, the entrance to the Kyiv subway station and the premises of the catering establishment.
Windows were blown out and the facades of residential buildings and at least 10 cars were damaged.
Emergency services and law enforcement officers are working at the scene to record another war crime of the Russian Federation.
The pre-trial investigation is being conducted by investigators of the SSU Main Directorate in Kyiv and Kyiv region.
additional photo galleries at link...
Ukrinform
Attack on Kyiv: security guard, 3 people in minibus killed
photos
18.01.2025 12:59
In Kyiv on the morning of January 18, a Russian missile attack killed a security guard at a catering establishment and three people in a minibus on the street.
Under the procedural guidance of the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office, a pre-trial investigation was initiated in criminal proceedings over a war crime that caused the death of people (Part 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).
“Four people are currently known to have been killed - a security guard of a catering facility and three people who were in a minibus on the street in one of the capital's districts,” the OGP said.
The blast wave damaged the building of the business center, the entrance to the Kyiv subway station and the premises of the catering establishment.
Windows were blown out and the facades of residential buildings and at least 10 cars were damaged.
Emergency services and law enforcement officers are working at the scene to record another war crime of the Russian Federation.
The pre-trial investigation is being conducted by investigators of the SSU Main Directorate in Kyiv and Kyiv region.
additional photo galleries at link...
Ukrinform
Posted on 1/18/25 at 1:32 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
To repeat, Western rules vs. Putin rules.
And therein is the answer to the question of why NATO, the Western nations and the EU don’t want Russia in their circle. Furthermore, the reason Putin doesn’t want Russia in either.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 2:19 pm to doubleb
Posted on 1/18/25 at 2:28 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
I just disagree with the article
So do I. They have misrepresented what he wrote.
The Bell Article:
"Claims of an imminent catastrophe first appeared in a Substack post on Saturday authored by Craig Kennedy, a Russia expert at Harvard’s Davis Center who spent many years with Morgan Stanley."
What Craig wrote:
"Initially, this off-budget defense financing scheme proved advantageous to Moscow by enabling it to maintain its official defense budget at manageable levels. That misled observers into concluding—incorrectly as it turns out—that Moscow faces no serious risks to its ability to sustain funding its war. More recently, however, Moscow’s heavy reliance on its off-budget, compulsory lending scheme has begun to cause serious, adverse consequences at home. Not only has it become the main driver of inflation and interest rate hikes, but it is also creating the preconditions for a systemic credit crisis."
I reread the article. At no point does he indicate that a catastrophe is imminent unless one equates "creating the preconditions" with "imminent".
In fact , he mentions no time frame for a credit event. Instead he talks in terms of increasing risk of a credit crisis.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 2:44 pm to John Barron
quote:
John Barron
Can you post some more Pro Russian X embeds?
The 30 or 40 per day you're doing now just aren't convincing anyone. I think if you could bring that up to 50 or 60, you might turn the corner on this thing.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 2:57 pm to No Colors
quote:
Can you post some more Pro Russian X embeds?
The 30 or 40 per day you're doing now just aren't convincing anyone. I think if you could bring that up to 50 or 60, you might turn the corner on this thing.
Hey, the man is hitting his quota, OK? You want him to work overtime? He deserves some time after work to consume enough vodka to overcome the existential angst he endures for pimping himself out to a murderous dictator destroying two countries.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 3:08 pm to No Colors
quote:
Can you post some more Pro Russian
Posting Reality is not Pro Russia. That's the problem with this thread. You NAFO trolls only want to hear positive Ukraine News. That is not the reality of this War.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 3:35 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Ukraine's economy is in far better shape than Russia's.
What an accomplishment, it only took the entire western world, billions of dollars in resources, and who knows how many lives.... So far
Posted on 1/18/25 at 3:37 pm to John Barron
quote:
You NAFO trolls only want to hear positive Ukraine News. That is not the reality of this War.
That's why they barely talk about it anymore. They just wishcast about Russian economic failures that may or may not happen, whine about your posts, and have issues with (but always fail to refute) mine
Posted on 1/18/25 at 3:39 pm to John Barron
quote:
Posting Reality is not Pro Russia.
We finally agree.
Posted on 1/18/25 at 3:44 pm to John Barron
quote:
Posting Reality is not Pro Russia
Posting only pro Russian stuff is not reality.Its rea stuff, but it’s only part of the story.
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