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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/8/24 at 12:54 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 12/8/24 at 12:54 pm to ned nederlander
I guarantee you that Erdogan has crafted a deal with Moscow to allow Russia to keep it's military bases.
They will turn on the Kurds next. This will not end well.
They will turn on the Kurds next. This will not end well.
6
Posted on 12/8/24 at 1:19 pm to AU86
Looks like Russia is still demanding Ukraine surrender terriorty Russia does not control to start peace talks and saying Ukraine is refusing to negotiate because of that. Wonder what Trumps team will do in response
LINK
quote:
PARIS, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump called on Sunday for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end "the madness", prompting Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy and the Kremlin to list their conditions.
Trump made his comments just hours after meeting Zelenskiy in Paris for their first face-to-face talks since Trump won last month's U.S. election. Trump has vowed to bring about a negotiated end to the conflict, but so far has not provided details.
"Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, adding that Kyiv had lost some 400,000 soldiers. "There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin."
"I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!" Trump added, referring to Russian President Putin.
Trump, in Paris for the reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral, sat down with Zelenskiy on Saturday for about an hour, along with host President Emmanuel Macron.
Trump and Zelenskiy shook hands and smiled, but it was unclear how the conversation had gone. Accounts of the talks from the French and Ukrainian sides said only that the discussions had been good and productive.
Zelenskiy reacted to Trump's message on Sunday saying peace was not just a piece of paper, but needed guarantees.
"When we talk about effective peace with Russia, we must first and foremost talk about effective guarantees for peace. Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else," he said on X.
"It (the war) cannot simply end with a piece of paper and a few signatures. A ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done before. To ensure that Ukrainians no longer suffer losses, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to occupation."
It appeared Trump's figure of 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers lost in the war meant both killed and wounded. Zelenskiy said 43,000 soldiers had been killed in the war and that there had been 370,000 wounded soldiers.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov convened a conference call with reporters to address Trump's comments.
Peskov said Russia was open to talks, but that they had to be based on agreements reached in Istanbul in 2022 and on current realities on the battlefield where Russian forces have been pushing forward at their fastest rate since the early days of the war in 2022.
Putin has said repeatedly that a preliminary agreement reached between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in the first weeks of the war at talks in Istanbul, which was never implemented, could serve as the basis for future talks.
"Our position on Ukraine is well known," said Peskov.
"The conditions for an immediate stop to hostilities were set out by President Putin in his speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry in June of this year. It is important to recall that it was Ukraine that refused and continues to refuse negotiations," he said.
Putin has said that Ukraine must not join the NATO military alliance and that Russia should be left fully in control of four Ukrainian regions his troops partially control at the moment for a peace deal to be done.
Peskov noted that Zelenskiy had banned contacts with the Russian leadership through a special decree, which Peskov said would have to be revoked if talks were to proceed.
LINK
Posted on 12/8/24 at 1:24 pm to StormyMcMan
For those who forget this is what Putin is demanding to stop hostilities from June and then saying "Why won't Ukraine negotiate 
. They are such bad actors"
And just a reminder, Russias demand is that Ukraine cede terriorty that Russia has never controlled
LINK
. They are such bad actors" quote:
"The conditions are very simple," Putin said, listing them as the full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire territory of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russia claimed the four regions, which its forces control only partially, as part of its own territory in 2022, an act rejected by most countries at the United Nations as illegal.
Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in 2014.
"As soon as they declare in Kyiv that they are ready for such a decision and begin a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially announce the abandonment of their plans to join NATO - on our side, immediately, literally at the same minute, an order will follow to cease fire and begin negotiations," Putin said.
"I repeat, we will do this immediately. Naturally, we will simultaneously guarantee the unhindered and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian units and formations."
quote:
Putin's conditions appeared to reflect his growing confidence in Moscow's ability to impose its own terms as its forces have gradually advanced in recent months.
Putin said "the future existence of Ukraine" depended on it withdrawing its forces, adopting a neutral status, and beginning talks with Russia. Kyiv's military situation, he said, would worsen if it rejected the offer.
"Today we are making another concrete, real peace proposal. If in Kyiv and in the Western capitals they refuse it as before, then, in the end, it is their business, their political and moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed," he said.
And just a reminder, Russias demand is that Ukraine cede terriorty that Russia has never controlled
LINK
Posted on 12/8/24 at 2:32 pm to AU86
These political talk guys should nuf whip smart they is
Posted on 12/8/24 at 2:47 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
And just a reminder, Russias demand is that Ukraine cede terriorty that Russia has never controlled
Russia demands this before peace talks begin!
Posted on 12/8/24 at 3:06 pm to doubleb
Posted on 12/8/24 at 3:34 pm to cypher
Yeah, there's still been quite a lot of military activity going on in Syria since the fall of Damascus:
1) Israel's army took control of the Syrian part of Mt. Hermon (expanding the Golan Heights) to create more of a "buffer zone." They are also bombing a number of Assad's weapons facilities, especially the chemical weapons ones.
2) As mentioned in the previous message, the US is bombing ISIS strong points.
3) The Turkish-backed SNA attempted to seize the city of Manbij from the Kurds (SDF), only to go into an SDF ambush and get clobbered.
1) Israel's army took control of the Syrian part of Mt. Hermon (expanding the Golan Heights) to create more of a "buffer zone." They are also bombing a number of Assad's weapons facilities, especially the chemical weapons ones.
2) As mentioned in the previous message, the US is bombing ISIS strong points.
3) The Turkish-backed SNA attempted to seize the city of Manbij from the Kurds (SDF), only to go into an SDF ambush and get clobbered.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 3:36 pm to AU86
quote:
I guarantee you that Erdogan has crafted a deal with Moscow to allow Russia to keep it's military bases.
No. There was never much ya chance of that: far too much Syrian blood on Putin's hands. But giving Assad asylum was the final nail in that coffin.
Erdogan will have an influence, to be sure, but he isn't running Syria -- for the moment, no one is.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 4:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/8/24 at 5:10 pm to AU86
quote:
They will turn on the Kurds next. This will not end well.
Which Kurds? Turkey has fought against the PKK faction which has long been a conduit of poppy products from Afghanistan
Posted on 12/8/24 at 5:37 pm to AU86
Posted on 12/8/24 at 6:05 pm to texag7
I don’t disagree with JD at all. I have no love lost for Assad but we can’t even begin to grasp the implications. Let Iran and Turkey fight over it.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 6:54 pm to REG861
quote:
I have no love lost for Assad but we can’t even begin to grasp the implications.
Pretty much how I feel. Time will tell if it's better or worse or if the civil war will merrily continue with one less faction.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 7:23 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Time will tell if it's better or worse
Not really sure that it can get worse that what we've dealt with in the past decade in Syria, what with ISIS and all.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 7:52 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
quote:
One of the benefits to all this that I don't think that we have talked about is how much better off Lebanon will be in the long term without Iran supplying Hezbollah. Hezbollah has had a chokehold on the Lebanese government for a very long time, and it's crippled the whole country.
Optimism in the Middle East is always a fools errand, but a hezbollah free Lebanon might really have a chance. Lebanon should a jewel of a nation. Hopefully some real support to rebuild will come and a better future emerges for Lebanon.
I think Turkey has voiced some concern for the Lebanese people, even threatening to intervene is Israel was harming the civilian population too much in its war on Hezbollah.
Lebanon has an equal split of Shiite and Sunni populations... Iran had supported murderous campaigns on the Sunni population and Palestinian Sunnis in the campsin the 80s and 90s, I think Turkey wants to make sure the Sunni population takes control in the absence of Hezbollah. That would put Lebanon in league with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt (and probably on good terms, then, with Israel), and further solidify the Sunni position in the region, which is now the sect that is more friendly with the West.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 7:53 pm to texag7
They're stashed in his 317 Villas, remember?
Posted on 12/8/24 at 7:57 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update Dec 8. Sponsored by SirWinston
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria.
The Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on December 8 with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation on the ground in Syria.
ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. Even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it is a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as Russia’s continued basing in Syria will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.
The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa.
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers – many of whom fought in or covered the Syrian war – are upset about the fall of the Assad regime, criticizing it as yet another failure of Russian foreign policy to exert and maintain influence in areas of strategic importance.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on December 7 an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $988 million.
Russian authorities detained alleged terrorists in the Republic of Dagestan on December 7 amid growing Russian milblogger claims that the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria will foster terrorism in Russia.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and the Pokrovsk and Vuhledar directions.
One of Russia's largest microchip manufacturers has reportedly begun bankruptcy proceedings.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 8:21 pm to StormyMcMan
TL;DW, the ruble rally is a dead cat bounce.
Posted on 12/8/24 at 9:00 pm to AU86
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Like clockwork.
OT neocons can start jacking off.
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