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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 12/7/24 at 6:46 pm to
Posted by Camp Randall
The Shadow of the Valley of Death
Member since Nov 2005
17571 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 6:46 pm to
Putin’s war is really making an impact on the world.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 7:02 pm to
ISW Update Dec 7th (per SirWinston's request)

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Russian forces have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town.

The Russian military command likely assesses that they have allocated sufficient manpower and materiel to the efforts to seize Kurakhove and seize or bypass Velyka Novosilka and level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.

Russian forces are likely attempting to flank Pokrovsk from the west and force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to minimize Russia's need to conduct frontal assaults on the towns’ eastern and southern approaches.

The Russian military command will likely continue to trade Russian materiel and manpower for tactical territorial gains at an unsustainable rate during their offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk into 2025.

Ukrainian forces continue to use drone strikes to contest Russia's presence in the northwestern Black Sea, including near gas extraction platforms.

Ukrainian forces will reportedly receive increased access to Starshield, a more secure satellite network for Starlink terminals, which may give Ukrainian forces an advantage in the technological innovation arms race in which Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged.

Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor appears to be testing the Russian sovereign internet in Russian regions populated by ethnic minorities.

Roskomnadzor indicated that it may intend to force Russians to migrate their websites from Western hosting providers to Russian hosting providers likely to better enforce Russian censorship laws.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and reportedly advanced near Velyka Novosilka while Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Russian authorities continue efforts to forcibly impress migrants into signing military service contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of ongoing cryptomobilization efforts.


Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

He's running a new kind of "political jihad," not a religious one.



In reality, the old Jihads - especially ISIS - were really political things using religion as a cover and recruiting tool.

The different tribes are fighting for control over land and resources, they always have...

With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after WWI, most of the countries in the region were drawn up to be ungovernable, on purpose, with minority groups inside those lines put in charge that would be forever more dependent on France and the UK to stay in power. That's collapsed since the turn of the Century...

So, people like Loulani seem smart enough to understand there will just be fighting until no one is left in a place like Syria, or they will have to create a diverse Society, or maybe a collection of Provinces for the different groups that works together.

If he pulls it off, it will be interesting and will maybe change the way things are approached in the region... which will be bad for Autocrats.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5893 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

Putin’s war is really making an impact on the world.


The impact of Zelensky staying in place and Kiev holding against the initial thrust really is incredible.

How different the world would be today if Russia rolled into Kiev in days as expected and simply toppled Ukraine.

It may yet prove for naught, but what a historical turning point.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:34 pm to
I wonder where Assad is; he's supposedly not in Damascus.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:48 pm to
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:49 pm to
HTS statement on chemical weapons.

Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5893 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

I wonder where Assad is; he's supposedly not in Damascus


Russia or Iran seem like the only option, and I’d bet Iran.

I don’t think the gulf states will be safe enough for him when the reality of the Syrian prison system under Assad is laid bare for all to see.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 8:55 pm to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:01 pm to
Assad's plane might have been shot down.

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Flightradar video
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 9:04 pm
Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38159 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

Does Slinky even own suit?


If he wore one you and the other brics bois would be crying about it. “IsNt He At War?? WhY he’s WeArIng FaNcY SuIt?!!”
Posted by gizmothepug
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2015
8665 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:38 pm to
quote:

If he wore one you and the other brics bois would be crying about it. “IsNt He At War?? WhY he’s WeArIng FaNcY SuIt?!!”


Compared to the costume he’s been wearing? It doesn’t matter at this point.
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41301 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

If he wore one you and the other brics bois would be crying about it. “IsNt He At War?? WhY he’s WeArIng FaNcY SuIt?!!”


Doesn’t have to be a suit. A clown costume would also be appropriate for Slinky.
Posted by REG861
Ocelot, Iowa
Member since Oct 2011
38159 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:01 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t have to be a suit. A clown costume would also be appropriate for Slinky.


Better than a body bag like your BRICS pal Assad.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15668 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t have to be a suit. A clown costume would also be appropriate for Slinky.


I noted how Trump wore Ukrainian color tie at Notre Dame and how Zelensky was smiling broadly today.
Posted by klrstix
Shreveport, LA
Member since Oct 2006
3569 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

Both Israel and Turkey are US allies...


Turkey's interests and ours are thin at best... I wouldn't bet money on Turkey being an ally unless they have something very specific to gain...

Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15668 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:47 pm to
quote:

Turkey's interests and ours are thin at best... I wouldn't bet money on Turkey being an ally unless they have something very specific to gain...


Nothing new at all there. They are at the crossroads of several political ideologies and take advantage whenever they can.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105276 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 11:04 pm to


Trump wearing Ukraine colors. Coincidence or no?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138789 posts
Posted on 12/8/24 at 4:30 am to
quote:

The impact of Zelensky staying in place and Kiev holding against the initial thrust really is incredible.
It really is.
Although there are now questions as to whether Zelenskyy actually ever said, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Even if he didn't say it, his actions, requests, and leadership in that moment were on the message.

Driving the Russians back to Belarus from the Kyiv surrounds was huge.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 12/8/24 at 5:19 am to
Video

To a random observer, it might seem strange to see women and little children being freed from Sendnaya Prison in Damascus. Not to me.

The Amna Suraka museum/memorial in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq was Saddam's HQ/prison in that Kurdish city, and it respectfully shows exactly the kinds of tortures that Saddam's henchmen inflicted on ordinary people there. Assad and Saddam were both Baathists, and there were a great many similarities between their regimes.


ETA: And most of the children you see in that video will have been born in that prison -- as a result of the rape of these women by prison guards. I read parts of an interview once with a former prisoner who talked about how these kids don't know what a bird is, don't know what a breeze feels like, don't know anything, because they've never been outside the walls of their prison cell.
This post was edited on 12/8/24 at 5:34 am
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