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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/7/24 at 1:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/7/24 at 1:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The really important thing about the next few days, aside from Russia abandoning its Syrian bases, will be the discoveries of all the Syrian records that demonstrate Russia's role in the countless war crimes Assad has committed.
It will be useful for the world to again be forced to confront the full extent of Putin's evil.
I agree with you, but also wonder - what difference would it make? Is there anyone left that needs more evidence before making up their minds about what Putin’s Russia is? Will any nation change their present behavior because of further Russian atrocities?
2
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:04 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
One of the benefits to all this that I don't think that we have talked about is how much better off Lebanon will be in the long term without Iran supplying Hezbollah. Hezbollah has had a chokehold on the Lebanese government for a very long time, and it's crippled the whole country.
Optimism in the Middle East is always a fools errand, but a hezbollah free Lebanon might really have a chance. Lebanon should a jewel of a nation. Hopefully some real support to rebuild will come and a better future emerges for Lebanon.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Lots of my twitter feed seems to think that Russia is ultimately going to switch sides and make a deal with HTS to keep its bases. Maybe so.
If I were betting, expelling Russia will be attempted and presented as a unifying issue to give the rebels more support among Syrians.
As you say, settling a score with a foreign occupant is always popular across sectarian lines.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:10 pm to SirWinston
Does Slinky even own suit?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:26 pm to texag7
quote:
Does Slinky even own suit?
No, he can’t afford one.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:34 pm to texag7
In more things are going well for Russia News:
The Russian population pyramid looks like a dreidel starting to wobble.
quote:
The country recorded its lowest birth rate in the past 25 years for the first six months of 2024, according to official data published in September. Births in Russia also declined for the first time in June to below 100,000. During the first half of this year, 599,600 children were born in Russia—16,000 lower than the same time a year ago.
quote:
“This is catastrophic for the future of the nation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in July, according to AFP. “It [the birth rate] is now at a terribly low level—1.4 [births per woman].
The Russian population pyramid looks like a dreidel starting to wobble.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 2:47 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:06 pm to cypher
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:20 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Is there anyone left that needs more evidence before making up their minds about what Putin’s Russia is?
I'm sure that SirWinston will change his mind when he sees all the evidence. He's an honorable Christian man.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:22 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/7/24 at 3:58 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Lebanon should a jewel of a nation.
It used to be that until a couple of decades ago.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:20 pm to CitizenK
new security package...
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS); and
Equipment, components, and spare parts to maintain, repair, and overhaul artillery systems, tanks, and armored vehicles.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS); and
Equipment, components, and spare parts to maintain, repair, and overhaul artillery systems, tanks, and armored vehicles.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:35 pm to cypher
quote:
new security package...
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
Ukrainian troops panned the Switchblade 300 drones that we sent two years ago, and the 600 model wasn't considered all that much better. But there have clearly been some upgrades, as videos of Switchblade 600 drones taking out Russian armor have recently gotten very common.
The exact UAS in this deal are unspecified, but I would imagine that the new and improved 600 is a significant part of the order.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:44 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The really important thing about the next few days, aside from Russia abandoning its Syrian bases, will be the discoveries of all the Syrian records that demonstrate Russia's role in the countless war crimes Assad has committed.
It will be useful for the world to again be forced to confront the full extent of Putin's evil.
Ha! John Bolton says on CNN that he can't wait to see what Assad's files say about Tulsi Gabbard's visit to Damascus. Me too.
LINK
Posted on 12/7/24 at 4:45 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
The really important thing about the next few days, aside from Russia abandoning its Syrian bases, will be the discoveries of all the Syrian records that demonstrate Russia's role in the countless war crimes Assad has committed.
It will be useful for the world to again be forced to confront the full extent of Putin's evil.
Yeah, with the world today, I don't see this important at all.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 5:04 pm to GOP_Tiger
We are watching a fundamental realignment going on in the Middle East.
Russia's war in Ukraine has sapped its strength, and it can't save Assad, its airbases, or its port. Don't discount the impact of the Wagner group's loss on what has happened in Syria. Wagner was Russia's best warfighting unit and a stabilizing force for Russia in Syria and Africa, but it got worn out during the assault on Bahkmut and ended up mutinying afterwards.
With the loss of Syria, Russia's ability to project power into Africa has degraded. Can Russia continue to grow its influence in Africa now? Time will tell.
The Hamas attack on Israel last year set into motion a chain of events that ultimately resulted in the fall of Syria. When Syria was in danger of falling last decade, Iran / Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to assist Assad. They can't do that now because Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters to Israel. The logistics route across Syria from Iran has been shut down.
This all combines to greatly weaken Iran. Iran has lost the ability to supply both organizations, and due to the attack on Israel and the subsequent arse-kicking Isreal imposed on both groups, both are severely degraded.
With Trump coming into office, the Houthis (another of Iran's proxies) know better than to keep up their attacks on shipping.
Iran also knows that they should not test Trump by attacking Israel. Trump would love the chance to kick in Iran's teeth.
All of this means that Iran has suffered serious setbacks and loss of power, the two winners in this are Israel and Turkey.
ETA the biggest winner may be the US. Both Israel and Turkey are US allies, so their gains are in our favor. This weakens Russia and Iran, two of our biggest adversaries. That two of the biggest terror organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, are severely degraded is just gravy for us.
Russia's war in Ukraine has sapped its strength, and it can't save Assad, its airbases, or its port. Don't discount the impact of the Wagner group's loss on what has happened in Syria. Wagner was Russia's best warfighting unit and a stabilizing force for Russia in Syria and Africa, but it got worn out during the assault on Bahkmut and ended up mutinying afterwards.
With the loss of Syria, Russia's ability to project power into Africa has degraded. Can Russia continue to grow its influence in Africa now? Time will tell.
The Hamas attack on Israel last year set into motion a chain of events that ultimately resulted in the fall of Syria. When Syria was in danger of falling last decade, Iran / Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to assist Assad. They can't do that now because Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters to Israel. The logistics route across Syria from Iran has been shut down.
This all combines to greatly weaken Iran. Iran has lost the ability to supply both organizations, and due to the attack on Israel and the subsequent arse-kicking Isreal imposed on both groups, both are severely degraded.
With Trump coming into office, the Houthis (another of Iran's proxies) know better than to keep up their attacks on shipping.
Iran also knows that they should not test Trump by attacking Israel. Trump would love the chance to kick in Iran's teeth.
All of this means that Iran has suffered serious setbacks and loss of power, the two winners in this are Israel and Turkey.
ETA the biggest winner may be the US. Both Israel and Turkey are US allies, so their gains are in our favor. This weakens Russia and Iran, two of our biggest adversaries. That two of the biggest terror organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, are severely degraded is just gravy for us.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 5:10 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 5:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Damascus is going to fall today.
A few hours ago, I was afraid that it might not happen before midnight, but it looks like my original prediction was correct:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 12/7/24 at 5:22 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russia's war in Ukraine has sapped its strength, and it can't save Assad, its airbases, or its port. Don't discount the impact of the Wagner group's loss on what has happened in Syria. Wagner was Russia's best warfighting unit and a stabilizing force for Russia in Syria and Africa, but it got worn out during the assault on Bahkmut and ended up mutinying afterwards.
With the loss of Syria, Russia's ability to project power into Africa has degraded. Can Russia continue to grow its influence in Africa now? Time will tell.
Yes, I keep thinking that none of this in Syria would be happening if Prigozhin were still alive.
Russia's problem in Africa is simple: even if Russia could set up a new staging location and new base in Libya or Sudan, its military cargo planes cannot fly all that distance with a full load.
And of course, they don't even have a base in Libya or Sudan right now. That won't happen fast, no matter what else happens, and both are fighting civil wars themselves -- not exactly stable investments.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 5:29 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
All of this means that Iran has suffered serious setbacks and loss of power, the two winners in this are Israel and Turkey.
Turkey is a winner, but not as big a winner as it hoped to be. They have backed HTS, of course, but they were even more supportive of the SNA, which was a direct proxy. Turkey's main goal in Syria is to eliminate the Kurds, and the SNA was dedicated to that. In fact, I suspect that the only fierce fighting still going on in the whole country at this hour is between the SNA and the Kurdish SDF in Manbij.
Joulani has talked about Syria being governed by a council, and he says that the new Syria will respect the rights of minorities. That would still leave the Kurds on Turkey's border and enable the PKK to move back and forth.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 6:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
it looks like my original prediction was correct
Well done. I thought it unlikely. But it can go very fast when people start switching teams to be on the winning side.
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