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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:19 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:19 am to NC_Tigah
Trump can't get here fast enough. This country has no current leadership. A Dementia patient and a drunk babbling idiot hanging out in Hawaii. Can you imagine if that incompetent idiot had been elected? She would have been worse than Biden. That is a scary thought.
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 8:44 am
1
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:23 am to AU86
quote:
Trump can't get here fast enough
The Ukrainians agree with this. Congress passed the last supplemental aid package on April 23rd, and the Biden administration is admitting that it will not deliver all the aid promised in that bill.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:28 am to GOP_Tiger
The WSJ has a really good overview the geopolitics involved: LINK. I'm quoting the parts especially about Russia.
Setbacks for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Turn Into a Catastrophe for Syria’s Assad
Setbacks for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Turn Into a Catastrophe for Syria’s Assad
quote:
It had taken the Syrian regime and its backers—Iran, Russia and Hezbollah—more than four years to dislodge rebel forces from the country’s second-largest city of Aleppo. At the time, in 2016, they celebrated that victory as the turning point in Syria’s civil war.
Now, a surprise rebel offensive has recaptured Aleppo in just a few days, including parts of the city that the Syrian army had never surrendered before. This stunning feat is the direct consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders.
“It’s a tectonic shift,” said Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as Syria director in the Trump White House. “Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.”
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Iranian ayatollahs’ regime are all currently embroiled in conflicts that threaten their very survival, and in which Syria is a sideshow at best. To a varying degree, all three have sustained strategic blows—while the Syrian rebels’ main backer, Turkey, has taken advantage of the turmoil.
quote:
For Russia, the 2015 intervention to rescue Assad’s regime was advertised as a major geopolitical triumph that displaced the U.S. as the Middle East’s sole dominant power. Then came the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which instead of a quick victory expected by Putin has turned into a bloody war of attrition. Regular Russian forces have taken hundreds of thousands of casualties and lost several thousand tanks and fighting vehicles since then. The Wagner paramilitary group, which had played a critical role in Syria, has been destroyed, its leadership killed in the wake of last year’s failed putsch against Putin.
The Russian air force, indispensable for the survival of Assad, hasn’t been as degraded as Russian ground troops in Ukraine, but it too has lost a significant part of its firepower and operates at a fraction of its former strength in Syria. According to open-source analysts at the Oryx consultancy, some 117 Russian warplanes were destroyed in nearly three years of the Ukrainian war, and 15 more damaged.
While the Russian air force carried out a series of bombing runs in Syria in recent days, these strikes were limited and didn’t do much to halt the rebel advances. “The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, and that’s a big part of it,” said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a group that advocates for democracy in Syria. “Thank God for the Ukrainians.”
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In his first term Trump was reportedly going to pull US troops out of NE Syria, but he was supposedly convinced to keep them there when told that we could have the oil (and CONOCO continues to control the oilfields there).
Mostly natural gas there and some oil. The "refinery" is a natural gas processing with NGL's fractionation.
A common misconception but most reporters have zero clue. They see fractionation columns and think refinery. Same thing at Gallup, NM, an NGL's fractionation plant was called The Refinery by locals for 70 years. It received Propanes Plus NGL's via pipeline from the Four Corners area. It fractionated it into propane, N butane, Iso butane and condensate (pentanes plus) which were then shipped via rail. In the mid 1990's a butamer unit was added to convert N butane into Iso butane which is the feedstock for alkyation units to turn into "octane"
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 8:49 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:15 am to CitizenK
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
In Russia's current situation, when it is experiencing a shortage of military and equipment in the war with Ukraine and is forced to ask for help from North Korea, sending planes, equipment, and soldiers to help Bashar al-Assad was definitely not part of Putin's plans and is definitely a very unpleasant surprise.
Putin's desire to maintain his influence in many places and satisfy his ambitions may lead to the destabilization of Russia itself.
@Gerashchenko_en
In Russia's current situation, when it is experiencing a shortage of military and equipment in the war with Ukraine and is forced to ask for help from North Korea, sending planes, equipment, and soldiers to help Bashar al-Assad was definitely not part of Putin's plans and is definitely a very unpleasant surprise.
Putin's desire to maintain his influence in many places and satisfy his ambitions may lead to the destabilization of Russia itself.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:24 am to GOP_Tiger
No one can keep up with the HTS advances in Syria. As soon as someone publishes a new map, it's already out of date. The rebels are already on the doorstep of Hama, and they will likely take it in the next few hours, as there are already pics of SAA and Russian/Iranian forces abandoning the city.
The next stop on the way south is Homs, and if it falls, then the Russian military bases at Latakia and Tartus will be cut off.
The SAA is going to concentrate on the defense of Damascus. They'll have to. I'm now believe that Russia is going to permanently lose those military bases.
What will happen when Russia can no longer project power in the Middle East? I don't know, but my first prediction is that Israel will then become much more aggressive in its support of Ukraine.
The next stop on the way south is Homs, and if it falls, then the Russian military bases at Latakia and Tartus will be cut off.
The SAA is going to concentrate on the defense of Damascus. They'll have to. I'm now believe that Russia is going to permanently lose those military bases.
What will happen when Russia can no longer project power in the Middle East? I don't know, but my first prediction is that Israel will then become much more aggressive in its support of Ukraine.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:32 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The next stop on the way south is Homs, and if it falls, then the Russian military bases at Latakia and Tartus will be cut off.
The SAA is going to concentrate on the defense of Damascus. They'll have to. I'm now believe that Russia is going to permanently lose those military bases.
Seems likely that the Russian bases are at risk. I think one of their main bases is also at Hmeimim.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:33 am to GOP_Tiger
We all know Ukraine has a manpower shortage , and in a war of attrition with Russia that was not good.
But I don’t remember people predicting Russia’s manpower shortage.
It seems Russia has bitten off more than it clan chew. They are losing leverage in the Middke East. Could Africa be next? Say what you want, but Ukraine is hurting Russia around the world.
But I don’t remember people predicting Russia’s manpower shortage.
It seems Russia has bitten off more than it clan chew. They are losing leverage in the Middke East. Could Africa be next? Say what you want, but Ukraine is hurting Russia around the world.
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 11:26 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:43 am to AU86
quote:
It sounds as if their lines are beginning to collapse. I have heard Russia has staged a large concentration in the South to make a final push. This is not going to end well for Ukraine. US screaming that they should.lower the draft age. Too little. Too late. Zelensky is willing to concede territory for an end to the war. Rutte at NATO stating that Ukraine is in a terrible position now to negotiate. But hey, the MIC made lots of money. Lots of politicians and corrupt Ukrainian bastards did also. Another foreign policy/military debacle for the US. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel/Middle East and now this. Not to mention Libya and Syria, the Balkans. All while the Chinese sit back and watch us weaken ourselves. Trillions of dollars in treasure and millions of lives. For what? Everything thing that we touch over there we screw up and bring misery and death while bankrupting our nation. We have to get out if these endless wars. Not looking good. This war is lost. Should have struck a deal in 2022.
This is a little hyperbolic. Yes things are not going well for Ukraine right now. And I hope for an imminent deal before it gets worse. However if the war is to stop tomorrow and a deal is made that freezes the current battle lines, then Ukraine will have absolutely outperformed expectations and Russia underperformed given obvious maximalist goals. Ukraine will retain its sovereignty and autonomy. Trading membership in NATO for continuing to exist as an independent country is, broadly speaking, a win. Putin didn’t go into this to get more of the Donbas, he wanted Kyiv. The ROI for Russia will have been a complete flop. I’m not sure how that is some giant geopolitical failure for the US to have helped stave off Russia from subsuming an entire country which was their goal.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 10:45 am to doubleb
quote:
It seems Russia has bitten off more than it clan chew. They are losing leverage in the Middke East. Could Africa be next? Say what you want, but Ukraine is hurting Russia around the world.
HUR taking a page out of Reagan's Small Wars strategy against Russia, in ME, Africa and Central America?
Posted on 11/30/24 at 11:01 am to cypher
quote:
Seems likely that the Russian bases are at risk. I think one of their main bases is also at Hmeimim.
That's the same airbase that I called the Latakia base. It's a suburb of Latakia and also the location of the city's civilian airport.
And Assad is still in Moscow right now! Is he even going to try to return to Syria? I honestly don't think so. I think that he knows that the jig is up.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 11:34 am to REG861
Here’s the thing, everyone assumes that all Zelensky and the West need to do is call got a cease fire and things will be settled and the current lines will be the new border.
But this line of thinking is wrong. Putin has to agree. He wants more and will push for more.
The second thing is how would the peace be enforced? Treaties have been made already. Peace deals have been already cut. But they all have been broken.
Who wants US peacekeepers? NATO? European? I ask because I watched in Vietnam how unenforceable these peace deals are with no troops in place to enforce them.
But this line of thinking is wrong. Putin has to agree. He wants more and will push for more.
The second thing is how would the peace be enforced? Treaties have been made already. Peace deals have been already cut. But they all have been broken.
Who wants US peacekeepers? NATO? European? I ask because I watched in Vietnam how unenforceable these peace deals are with no troops in place to enforce them.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 11:56 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
"The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence told Reuters."
LINK
Huh. WWIII isn't about to start, apparently. I guess all the sky-screaming, bed-wetting Politards were wrong.
That Storm Shadow "bunker buster" attack in the Kurst region a couple of weeks ago, which took out North Korean military officials in one of Putin's mansion's underground bunkers/shelters, also had the purpose of reminding him we know exactly where those are located and can breach them.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:04 pm to cypher
quote:
Putin's problems continue mounting
CUE: "Obama orchestrated this!!!"
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
Reports now of widespread clashes in Damascus itself amid rumors of a coup.
It's all but over now. Putin invested so much into propping up Assad, for so many years. Assad was the poster boy that Putin would point foreign leaders to and explain why they really were better off with Russia as an ally than they were with the US. Putin partnered with Assad in the incredible number of horrific war crimes in Syria.
And now the only question left is how much military equipment Russia will leave behind, if they don't have time to evacuate it all.
It's all but over now. Putin invested so much into propping up Assad, for so many years. Assad was the poster boy that Putin would point foreign leaders to and explain why they really were better off with Russia as an ally than they were with the US. Putin partnered with Assad in the incredible number of horrific war crimes in Syria.
And now the only question left is how much military equipment Russia will leave behind, if they don't have time to evacuate it all.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
On another note, there are lots of videos on the internet right now showing dead Russian troops in Syria today, as a result of the rebels attack on Syrian/Russian positions near Aleppo. Hezbullah/Iran/Assad now look weak, and that's bad news for Russia in the region.
Rebels have taken Aleppo. Wow. Without support from Hezbullah, Assad is so weak. The incredible speed at which Aleppo has fallen is very bad news for Assad. I wonder if the Russian military base at Latakia becomes endangered.
It's all one war.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:13 pm to Lee B
"What're we gonna do?"
"I dunno. Whaddya think we should do?"
"I dunno. Whaddya think we should do?"
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:16 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
quote:
If Ukraine joined NATO they would have the 2nd largest military in NATO and they would be the only NATO member with recent total war experience.
They won’t have it after this war is over. And they would be by far the most likely member to get the rest of us into a broader conflict
After this war is over, who will there be for Ukraine to get into a "broader conflict?"
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:42 pm to AU86
quote:
But hey, the MIC made lots of money. Lots of politicians and corrupt Ukrainian bastards did also. Another foreign policy/military debacle for the US. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel/Middle East and now this. Not to mention Libya and Syria, the Balkans. All while the Chinese sit back and watch us weaken ourselves. Trillions of dollars in treasure and millions of lives. For what? Everything thing that we touch over there we screw up and bring misery and death while bankrupting our nation. We have to get out if these endless wars.
Not looking good. This war is lost. Should have struck a deal in 2022.
Spot on, but good luck with the chicken hawks on here being intellectually honest enough to admit they were wrong
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:58 pm to SirWinston
unconfirmed
Reports have appeared that in Damascus, Syria, there is an attempt of a coup against Assad.
Reports have appeared that in Damascus, Syria, there is an attempt of a coup against Assad.
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