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Posted on 11/29/24 at 6:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But I really wonder if Ukraine is directly assisting HTS with intelligence
HUR has been operating in Syria for a while. It's not clear from this article who they are coordinating with.
EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine’s HUR Special Forces Target Russian Drone Base in Syria
This post was edited on 11/29/24 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 11/29/24 at 6:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Al-Joulani
Because we’re paying him, they work for us.
This post was edited on 11/29/24 at 6:16 pm
Posted on 11/29/24 at 6:30 pm to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 11/29/24 at 9:35 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But I really wonder if Ukraine is directly assisting HTS with intelligence. I feel sure that they are.
I even wonder if the US is secretly giving Turkey intelligence that they then pass along. We still classify Joulani as a terrorist, but he's been quite clear for some time now that he opposes global jihad, even as he attacks ISIS and Al-Queda.
As if the Turks wouldn't have solid intel themselves, then there is Israeli intel, second to none in the ME especially with Assad being allied with Iran.
Posted on 11/29/24 at 10:07 pm to cypher
Russia has a lot on its hands right now; they are getting rolled back in Syria, in danger of losing their only port in the Med, and Georgia is getting spicy with protests against Russia's puppet government.
How strongly they respond to these trouble spots will be a good measure of their strength. Do they have the available combat power to stabilize Syria?
Iran has been weakened by the arse-kicking Israel gave Hamas and Hezbollah.
There seems to be a lot of activity right now, but none of it is positive for Russia.
Is the US putting its influence to use to try to prepare the negotiating landscape to end the Ukraine war?
How strongly they respond to these trouble spots will be a good measure of their strength. Do they have the available combat power to stabilize Syria?
Iran has been weakened by the arse-kicking Israel gave Hamas and Hezbollah.
There seems to be a lot of activity right now, but none of it is positive for Russia.
Is the US putting its influence to use to try to prepare the negotiating landscape to end the Ukraine war?
Posted on 11/29/24 at 11:52 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 11/29/24 at 11:55 pm to SirWinston
Yea, Ukraine is hurting and it isn't looking good for them. That doesn't have anything to do with my post.
You don't think these are issues for Russia? Are you capable of actually having a conversation?
You don't think these are issues for Russia? Are you capable of actually having a conversation?
Posted on 11/30/24 at 12:51 am to cypher
I’m guessing they had militia and low quality regular army units there, and they broke as soon as they came into contact. Which is not an exactly unprecedented. They also must have been complacent. I don’t keep up with Syria but how much have they demobilized? Also, has anyone seen a relative breakdown of the number of combatants involved on each side? It’s Syria so knowing which tribes the government forces came from could matter. It’s possible someone made a deal.
I guess this is the point that everyone else has made, but it looks like the breakout when Isis first time emerged.
There was one clip of a Turkish affiliated unit that looked very crisp. I assumed they were Turkish soldiers pretending not to be Turkish soldiers. It will be interesting to see how the Russians react. How much of this assault was Washington and Israel, and how much of this was Ankara? If your the Turks the time to do this was last year, or the year before. The Russians would have been much too tied up. Perhaps the outgoing Biden people finally gave them permission, and so they took advantage of this golden moment to absorb a little bit more of Syria.
I guess this is the point that everyone else has made, but it looks like the breakout when Isis first time emerged.
There was one clip of a Turkish affiliated unit that looked very crisp. I assumed they were Turkish soldiers pretending not to be Turkish soldiers. It will be interesting to see how the Russians react. How much of this assault was Washington and Israel, and how much of this was Ankara? If your the Turks the time to do this was last year, or the year before. The Russians would have been much too tied up. Perhaps the outgoing Biden people finally gave them permission, and so they took advantage of this golden moment to absorb a little bit more of Syria.
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 12:53 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 1:07 am to Lima Whiskey
ISW Update Nov 29th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence.
There is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and US and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a Russian escalation in the war. Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities.
The Russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) in a belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in February 2024.
Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against four Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia on November 28 and 29.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to Pyongyang, North Korea on November 29 amid intensifying Russian-North Korean cooperation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office opened additional investigations on November 28 into the apparent Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the appointment of Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Ukraine's new Ground Forces Commander on November 29, replacing Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk.
Georgians protested in Tbilisi, Georgia in response to an initiative by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party to delay European Union (EU) accession negotiations, prompting the Russian information space to resurrect information operations falsely framing the protests and Georgian opposition parties as potential threats to Georgian sovereignty.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Vuhledar.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian opposition outlets Mediazona and BBC Russian Service reported that they have confirmed that at least 80,937 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 3:08 am to StormyMcMan
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Partners have fully equipped only 2.5 brigades out of the 10 promised, Zelenskyy says in an interview with Sky News.
? Russia has deployed missile carriers to the Black Sea, but without Kalibr missiles on board, the Ukrainian Navy says.
? Portugal's former Prime Minister Antonio Costa officially took over the baton of the European Council presidency from Charles Michel. He was handed a symbolic bell to open the meeting - Euronews.
? Syrian rebels have seized the Aleppo police headquarters and released hundreds of prisoners from jails. russia has promised Assad help within 72 hours.
LINK
quote:
The small European country of Luxembourg just announced that it would spend more than 80 million euros to fund domestic Ukrainian arms production.
Funds will go towards the procurement of Ukrainian drones, surveillance systems and electronic warfare systems in 2025.
LINK
quote:
Chronicles of "decolonization"
Ukraine urgently needs military personnel. The one option is to lower the draft age to 18, stated Roland Kather, retired German general, on Die Welt. The other option, proposed by some experts, is to send NATO and EU troops, but the general strongly opposes it.
"Here in Germany, if my research is correct, there are between 200 and 250 thousand young people of military age from Ukraine. I believe that they should first go back to their homeland and defend their homeland before at least one soldier from the EU or NATO enters the country," said Kather.
It shows how some people in the "civilized" and "liberal" West care about Ukrainians, their rights, and their will. I wish all those warmongers sent their sons to the war and stopped lecturing Ukrainians how they must die for their homeland and "democratic Europe."
LINK
quote:
Syria has received a promise of additional military aid from Russia to bolster its Army's efforts in preventing Rebels from seizing control of the Aleppo Province in the country's Northwest. Damascus anticipates the arrival of new Russian military equipment at the Hmeimim Base near Latakia within the next 72 hours.
LINK
Posted on 11/30/24 at 3:40 am to StormyMcMan
update on Syria. "Show More" has a lot of info.
Meanwhile, Russian Telegram channels are analysing why Tahrir al-Sham were successful in their swift advance on Aleppo. Many Russian soldiers and crucial aerial equipment previously stationed there were relocated to support the war in Ukraine, leaving only a small force behind in Syria. They were unprepared for the attack, as since the Ministry of Defense took over command from Prigozhin’s PMC, the discipline of the troops deteriorated. As a result, the rebels had a lot of intel on the movements and schedules of Russians, and could mount a surprise assault.
Meanwhile, Russian Telegram channels are analysing why Tahrir al-Sham were successful in their swift advance on Aleppo. Many Russian soldiers and crucial aerial equipment previously stationed there were relocated to support the war in Ukraine, leaving only a small force behind in Syria. They were unprepared for the attack, as since the Ministry of Defense took over command from Prigozhin’s PMC, the discipline of the troops deteriorated. As a result, the rebels had a lot of intel on the movements and schedules of Russians, and could mount a surprise assault.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/30/24 at 4:28 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Syria has received a promise of additional military aid from Russia to bolster its Army's efforts in preventing Rebels from seizing control of the Aleppo Province in the country's Northwest. Damascus anticipates the arrival of new Russian military equipment at the Hmeimim Base near Latakia within the next 72 hours.
Yeah, Reuters is saying the same:
“Russia, one of Assad's key allies, has promised Damascus extra military aid to thwart the rebels, two military sources said, adding new hardware would start arriving in the next 72 hours.”
LINK
And I am wondering what they possibly can give, because the Ukrainian conflict has already emptied most supply bases bone dry.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 4:52 am to GOP_Tiger
Syria's Kurds (the SDF) had a stronghold over part of Aleppo. Taking advantage of the HTS and the regime (SAA) weakness, they have taken Aleppo's airport and are now taking vast areas in Syria's north.
It will be interesting to follow that dynamic. HTS and SDF are not at all friends. The SDF has certainly had better relations with the SAA than they've had with HTS.
I'm very curious to see if HTS and the SDF can decide to work together to finish off the SAA and the regime, or if HTS and the SDF get involved again in fighting each other.
If they work together, it would be interesting to see how temporary the alliance is. HTS is Islamist, and the SDF is basically secular and communist.
EDIT: For those who don't follow Syria closely, the US has forces in NE Syria supporting the SDF. This is not because we find them particularly lovable, but rather because:
1) They keep ISIS in check. Contrary to many perceptions, ISIS continues to fight a guerilla war and would likely quickly take control of much of eastern Syria without constant vigilance.
2) They control the Al-Hol prison camp, which contains over 30,000 ISIS prisoners. There's really no good solution of what to do with Al-Hol in the long term, but in the short term, it's definitely best that the SDF continues to guard the prison camp.
3) SDF control over this area complicates the transport of weapons from Iran to Hamas and Hezbollah. Without the SDF, the logistics would be considerably easier.
In his first term Trump was reportedly going to pull US troops out of NE Syria, but he was supposedly convinced to keep them there when told that we could have the oil (and CONOCO continues to control the oilfields there).
It will be interesting to follow that dynamic. HTS and SDF are not at all friends. The SDF has certainly had better relations with the SAA than they've had with HTS.
I'm very curious to see if HTS and the SDF can decide to work together to finish off the SAA and the regime, or if HTS and the SDF get involved again in fighting each other.
If they work together, it would be interesting to see how temporary the alliance is. HTS is Islamist, and the SDF is basically secular and communist.
EDIT: For those who don't follow Syria closely, the US has forces in NE Syria supporting the SDF. This is not because we find them particularly lovable, but rather because:
1) They keep ISIS in check. Contrary to many perceptions, ISIS continues to fight a guerilla war and would likely quickly take control of much of eastern Syria without constant vigilance.
2) They control the Al-Hol prison camp, which contains over 30,000 ISIS prisoners. There's really no good solution of what to do with Al-Hol in the long term, but in the short term, it's definitely best that the SDF continues to guard the prison camp.
3) SDF control over this area complicates the transport of weapons from Iran to Hamas and Hezbollah. Without the SDF, the logistics would be considerably easier.
In his first term Trump was reportedly going to pull US troops out of NE Syria, but he was supposedly convinced to keep them there when told that we could have the oil (and CONOCO continues to control the oilfields there).
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 5:33 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 6:01 am to GOP_Tiger
I don't know if the SNA activity has been confirmed from Gerashchenko.
New reports are also emerging about a possible advance on Aleppo from the north by the Syrian National Army. Allegedly, they engaged in combat with Assad’s Syrian Arab Army next to the city of Al Bab. The SNA is subordinate to Turkey, so if confirmed, this involvement would mean that Ankara is directly taking part in this operation.
Also, unconfirmed traffic report between russian bases.
New reports are also emerging about a possible advance on Aleppo from the north by the Syrian National Army. Allegedly, they engaged in combat with Assad’s Syrian Arab Army next to the city of Al Bab. The SNA is subordinate to Turkey, so if confirmed, this involvement would mean that Ankara is directly taking part in this operation.
Also, unconfirmed traffic report between russian bases.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 6:37 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 7:03 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Yea, Ukraine is hurting and it isn't looking good for them.
It sounds as if their lines are beginning to collapse. I have heard Russia has staged a large concentration in the South to make a final push. This is not going to end well for Ukraine. US screaming that they should.lower the draft age. Too little. Too late. Zelensky is willing to concede territory for an end to the war. Rutte at NATO stating that Ukraine is in a terrible position now to negotiate.
But hey, the MIC made lots of money. Lots of politicians and corrupt Ukrainian bastards did also. Another foreign policy/military debacle for the US. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel/Middle East and now this. Not to mention Libya and Syria, the Balkans. All while the Chinese sit back and watch us weaken ourselves. Trillions of dollars in treasure and millions of lives. For what? Everything thing that we touch over there we screw up and bring misery and death while bankrupting our nation. We have to get out if these endless wars.
Not looking good. This war is lost. Should have struck a deal in 2022.
This post was edited on 11/30/24 at 7:21 am
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:05 am to AU86
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:06 am to AU86
quote:
It sounds as if their lines are beginning to collapse.
Nope. They continue to conduct an active defense and are dealing out severe damage to the attacking Russians.
It's certainly true that there is some danger of a collapse, but that is absolutely not happening right now.
For the moment, Ukraine is going to continue to concentrate its defense of Russian territory in Kursk to give it an advantage in any peace talks. If and when Kursk falls or that political advantage no longer seems important, Ukraine will redeploy some of the tens of thousands of troops it has in Kursk to the southern Donbas.
The severity of the manpower shortage in the south is mainly caused by the current prioritization of Kursk.
Posted on 11/30/24 at 8:15 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:Hopefully so. They need to hang on at least a few more months.
Nope. They continue to conduct an active defense and are dealing out severe damage to the attacking Russians.
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