re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Boing proposed a jet assisted JDAM once upon a time, but it was never funded.


Ukraine is a very practical laboratory for the Russian military industry, they're learning what works, what doesn't work, and what the Russian military really needs.

The Russia bros here in this thread seem jubilant, but some Russians are worried:

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“I think that Trump will offer Russia a deliberately unfavorable deal on Ukraine before January, which we will, of course, reject,” said Russian member of parliament Yevgeny Popov. “Donald will throw up his hands and, in his usual manner, announce an unprecedented aid package for the Zelensky regime and the lifting of all restrictions on missiles. This will not change anything either. But it will delay the settlement process. Glory to the Russian soldier!”

Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, also expressed doubt that Trump will offer a dramatic departure from Biden when it comes to bilateral relations.

“It would be extremely naive to believe that under Trump, as he promises, peace in Ukraine will suddenly become closer,” he proclaimed on Telegram. “The Ukrainian conflict has only one simple solution – Russia’s victory, which the U.S. will not want under any president. The other solutions are complex, although the U.S. can indeed influence them, since the Kyivv – and Brussels – regimes depend on them.”

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ISW Update Nov 9

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Key Takeaways:

Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometers during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024.

Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains.

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the Aleksin Chemical Plant in Tula Oblast on the night of November 8 to 9.

Russian authorities are reportedly considering merging Russia's three largest oil companies -- Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, likely to help Russia reach more advantageous energy deals with non-Western states.

Russian authorities arrested a former Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) construction official for fraud on November 9.

The US Department of Defense (DOD) reportedly stated on November 8 that it will send a "small number" of US defense contractors to rear areas of Ukraine to repair US-provided weapons and equipment.

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated on November 9 that Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia will be able to produce 30 percent more artillery shells than all European Union (EU) countries combined in 2025 should the EU fail to implement additional measures, such as sanctions, against Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).

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The personnel losses have been extraordinary, but the vehicle losses are completely unsustainable. Just look at the armor lost in the last three days, as documented by Andrew Perpetua:

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Reminder that Andrew watches hundreds of Telegram videos every day to document all visible losses. Every day, he links every loss in a spreadsheet so that you can see the individual video for each recorded loss.

And yes, Ukraine is losing equipment too -- a lot of it. But the central point is that Russia cannot long continue to conduct offensives in its current fashion. It's supply bases have been denuded of artillery, and nearly depleted of armor. The do not have unlimited supply.

Donald Trump Jr says that Zelensky is about to "lose his allowance."

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That's actually something that makes me hopeful: Ukraine is receiving $50 billion in interest-free loans made by using the frozen Russian assets as collateral. They will not need money from anyone until 2026. What they need are weapons.

This is the same issue that arose in Germany. Scholz directed his finance minister to send 3 billion Euros to Ukraine, and the finance minister responded that they can't afford 3 billion Euros and Ukraine needs Taurus, not money. Scholz then decided to fire the finance minister, and that's why the government has collapsed.

American weapons are made in US factories employing US workers, and this buildup of our defense industrial base is essential for the eventual "pivot to China." But a lot of the money that we've spent building Patriot missiles to send to Ukraine would have been unnecessary if we'd only let Ukraine hit the Russian airfields with ATACMS. We've been insistent on helping Ukraine shoot down the arrows fired at them, instead of hitting the archer.

We can even send a bunch more Bradleys and Strykers under a new Lend-Lease and "spend" nothing.

So, yes, we can stop paying the salaries of Ukraine's first responders. We can stop the aid to their energy and agriculture sectors. And, ultimately, we can spend a lot less while also helping Ukraine a lot more.

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The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously."

"Some U.S. military and intelligence officials have grown more pessimistic about Ukraine’s overall prospects, noting that Russia has steadily gained ground, both in Kursk and in eastern Ukraine. Officials say the setbacks are partly a result of Ukraine’s failure to solve critical shortfalls in troop strength...

One Western official said Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk in August thinned out its forces across the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable to Russian advances. But that official, and U.S. officials, said Ukraine still had a strong defense in Kursk and might be able to hold, at least for a time."

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So, yes, we can stop paying the salaries of Ukraine's first responders. We can stop the aid to their energy and agriculture sectors. And, ultimately, we can spend a lot less while also helping Ukraine a lot more.

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I.was told.and saw reports that the EU was going to handle the financial portion of aid. They would pay for the things that you listed. I guess that was a lie also (not saying you lied).
In reality, the US taxpayer has carried the largest burden of financial and military aid. That is always the case. And that is going to end.

Once again, Europe has not met their obligations.

Germany's economy is very, very ,very bad right now. Germany is in for some tough times ahead. Their auto industry is sucking wind. I dont know how much cheap Russian gas they still get but it must have declined big time. When they lost their Russian tit their economy has gone to hell. Trump warned them. Between that and their insane policies on green energy. The idiots closed all of their nuclear and coal plants. They have fricked themselves. And it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

Yall insane and delusional.

Trump talked to Putin, told Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine

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President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, the first phone conversation between the two men since Trump won the election, said several people familiar with the matter.

During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

The two men discussed the goal of peace on the European continent and Trump expressed an interest in follow-up conversations to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon,” several of the people said.

In his presidential campaign, Trump said he would bring an immediate end to the war in Ukraine, though did not offer details about how he intended to do so. He has signaled privately that he would support a deal where Russia kept some captured territory, and during the call he briefly raised the issue of land, people familiar with the matter said.

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The government of Ukraine has been informed of the Putin call and did not object to the conversation taking place, said two people familiar with the matter. Ukrainian officials have long understood that Trump would engage with Putin on a diplomatic solution for Ukraine, the people said.

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ISW Update Nov 10th

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition warehouses in Bryansk Oblast during a large-scale Ukrainian drone strike against Russia on the night of November 9 and 10.

Ukrainian officials continue to report Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

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