re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What should be a pretty obvious difference between all of those (save Palestinians) is that we are supporting the adversary of the Russians in an active conflict right now.

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Wrong, I’m supporting a nation trying to defend itself from naked aggression. A rather new nation that just gained its independence. A nation that Russia and the US agreed to protect its sovereignty.

Ukraine isn’t an adversary of Russia. They are victims.

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I’m supporting a nation trying to defend itself from naked aggression

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That is currently the adversary of Russia.

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Ukraine isn’t an adversary of Russia. They are victims.

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They are both

I also like how you attempt (and fail) to nitpick this comment instead of addressing the overall point that some posters (including yourself) were dehumanizing the citizenry of a geopolitical opponent, and now you're waffling on it

They are opponents, but they aren’t rivals.
Ukraine was never a threat to Russia, it was only a prize.

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I also like how you attempt (and fail) to nitpick this comment instead of addressing the overall point that some posters (including yourself) were dehumanizing the citizenry of a geopolitical opponent, and now you're waffling on it

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I admitted NC was right about some here labeling groups of people, but you never admitted the only reason you are posting in this thread is to draw attention to yourself.

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So how is the war going? Has Pokrovsk fallen? Have the Ukies made any advances in Kursk?

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Russia has continued to advance on a number of fronts. Russia quit attacking Pokrovsk directly and is instead advancing on the flanks, threatening to get north of the Ukrainian southern defensive line, which could conceivably allow them to collapse the Ukrainian defense in the southern Donbas.

In Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian advance is about to reach the Oskil River and split the Ukrainian defense into two parts -- it's not a good situation there for Ukraine.

The only recent positive for Ukraine was a small advance in Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Make no mistake: Russia has lately been advancing faster than at just about any time in the last 2 years. There are, of course, a number of explanations for this:

1) Russia is desperately trying to take as much territory as possible before the mud season and (especially) the US presidential election, hoping that a Trump victory would result in a frozen conflict and they will be able to keep all this territory that they taking now.

2) Ukraine's defense in the southern Donbas suffers from insufficient personnel (still a result of the delay in the draft mobilization law), insufficient weaponry, poor training and mistakes in command (especially the failures to build proper fortifications), and the inability to counter Russian glide bombs.

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In Kursk, Russia now has an estimated 30k troops to only 10k for Ukraine. Russia is now very much on the offensive, collapsing the western part of the Ukrainian salient. I always worried that the Ukrainian failure to take Korenevo would result in this (and said so), but the area around Sudzha is much better defended. Oh, and Russia has also recaptured two towns in the far southeast part of the salient.

Ukraine responded with another border crossing to the west of the current salient that threatens to take Glushkovo and cut off Russian troops in the area south of the Seim River, but the Ukrainians haven't made much apparent progress there in the last two days. I hope that they didn't wait a week too late to do this.

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In the big picture, Ukraine continues to develop strategic advantages, in spite of the tactical losses. The destruction of the ammo warehouses at Toropets likely took out something like 22,000 tons of rockets and shells. The impact could be felt on the battlefield in days, especially in the north, which was the area primarily served by this main warehouse.

Of deeper concern to Russia, there are another six of these ammo warehouse bases in range of Ukraine's new jet-powered drone, which was used in the Toropets attack.

Similarly, Russian naval ships abandoned Novorossiysk, after fears of attack there.

Finally, there's new evidence that Russia is rapidly running out of artillery. Guys like @Jonpy99 and @HighMarsed have very carefully and thoroughly mapped storage bases using satellite imagery, and what's left of their towed artillery storage is mostly just old pieces that use shells that they don't have.

The armored vehicle shortage is also very real, though not as severe. That's why Russia has largely been taking territory recently through infantry assaults -- with very high losses in 200s and 300s. Russia likely cannot continue much past the end of the year without another large mobilization, which would, of course, rapidly accelerate the decline of the Russian economy.


On the other hand, the pro-Russian folks here can rejoice that Russia blew up a nursing home in Sumy yesterday, and Russia continues to actively hunt and kill ordinary elderly citizens in Kherson on a daily basis with FPVs. So, from their point of view, at least they are still killing hohols.

I should've added one more reason that I believe that Russian advances are about to culminate:

Fall doesn't just bring mud season; it also literally results in leaves falling off of trees.

The lack of cover rapidly exposes advancing troops to the view of drones, and Ukraine now has a significant drone advantage in this war. Additionally, the cold ground makes it much easier for thermal drones to find attackers.

The sheer amount of drones in the Ukrainian sky increases all the time, from both sides. I thus expect this to make a bigger difference this winter than over the last two.

Ukraine is a victim of the CIA. Russia is just doing what they do when you threaten them on their own borders.

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Ukraine is a victim of the CIA. Russia is just doing what they do when you threaten them on their own borders.

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Russia had been attacking their neighbors for centuries, and doing that without any help from the CIA.

This isn’t an episode of Flip Wilson. The devil didn’t make Russia do anything. They launched an attack on Ukraine almost immediately after the pro Russian president left. It was planned well in advance.

If you are part of the blame America first cried there’s nothing I can say to change your mind, but Putin had options. He chose war.

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I also like how you attempt (and fail) to nitpick this comment instead of addressing the overall point that some posters (including yourself) were dehumanizing the citizenry of a geopolitical opponent, and now you're waffling on it

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Again, utter bullshite... this site runs on ad hominem attacks on anybody that isn't in the MAGA tribe and wishes for them to be put to death...