re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

That’s funny but it’s actually true. Palletizing basically everything that can possibly be put on a pallet is how we have such a great logistics chain in our military. Anything can be ready to roll onto a C-17 in very little time and taken anywhere on the planet. Russian logistics are a fricking joke unless it’s getting vodka to the front. They would be embarrassed if they knew just how far behind they are on the ability to project power anywhere in as little time as possible. They can’t even keep their people supplied in Ukraine and they border either Ukraine itself or their bitch state Belarus.

I love how the spin has changed in just 4 days. After the initial shock wore off it was

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russia will crush those invading forces and roll them back quickly across the border into Ukraine

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Now 4 days later it has become

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Ukraine doesn’t have the equipment, personnel, or sustainment necessary to carve out operationally significant territory such that it would cause serious harm to Russian war effort.

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Wow. Absolutely delicious

Notice how they're already preparing their permanent spin? Realizing that they'll never be able to dislodge the UkA from Russian proper, they're already calling it "operationally insignificant territory to the Russian war effort"

Less than a week and they've done the math.

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From what I’ve seen, the Russians have just used their reserves, along with some auxiliary units in Kursk.

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There are now several reports from Russian milbloggers that troops are being pulled from various sections of the front and sent to Kursk.

ISW Update Aug 10

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Key Takeaways:

The Russian National Antiterrorism Committee announced a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 9 in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.

The Kremlin likely decided to declare a counterterrorism operation - as opposed to a state of war or martial law - to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and prevent domestic panic or backlash - demonstrating the Kremlin's reluctance to take more drastic measures to respond to the situation.

Putin likely appointed Bortnikov as the head of the counterterrorist operation because Bortnikov has previously proven himself to be an effective manager during crises that threatened Russian domestic stability and the Kremlin regime.

A complicated command and control (C2) arrangement for the FSB-led counterterrorism operation under Bortnikov may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian response to Ukraine’s operation.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be relying on a combination of Russian conscripts already operating in Kursk Oblast, elements of the Northern Grouping of Forces, and elements redeployed from lower-priority frontline areas in Ukraine to defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, likely exacerbating the disorganization of Russia’s chosen response.

Russian forces' usage of conscripts and forces already in Kursk Oblast, nearby forces fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and lateral redeployments across the theater to defend against the Ukrainian incursion is consistent with a number of likely Russian courses of action (COAs) that ISW forecasted.

The Russian MoD appears to be relying on select, battle-hardened units to conduct offensive and defensive operations in its most critical sectors of the front.

Russian forces appear to be more adequately defending against Ukrainian assaults following the arrival of additional conscripts and more combat effective personnel from frontline areas in Ukraine.

Geolocated footage and Russian reporting from August 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces largely maintain previously reported positions in Kursk Oblast and have advanced slightly further than their previously confirmed positions.

Ukraine’s cross-border operation into Kursk Oblast threatens the Kremlin with a potential political crisis regarding causalities among Russian conscripts, whom the Kremlin has increasingly relied upon to defend the Russian state border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian ship and a gas platform in the western Black Sea.

Iran will reportedly deliver "hundreds" of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has begun to form the "Black Raven" strike drone volunteer unit and asked readers to donate to the 16-million-ruble (about $184,324) goal to supply the unit with drones and equipment.

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A complicated command and control (C2) arrangement for the FSB-led counterterrorism operation under Bortnikov may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian response to Ukraine’s operation.

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So Bortnikov's FSB, which has arrested over 20 top officers of the Russian Army in the last two months, will be commanding the Russian Army in its efforts to stop the invasion of Kursk. Yes, that will work just fine.

As the Russian conscripts and border police are just getting chewed up, the transfer of experienced troops from occupied Ukraine to Kursk will have to take place.

The Ukrainians will be watching every bit of these transfers and will take full advantage of both resulting weak areas of the line in occupied Ukraine and arriving troop concentrations and unsupported deployment in Kursk.

All under the direction of the warm embrace of their borthers in Bortnikov's FSB. We can anticipate some real difficulty with experienced Russian Army units taking orders from them. Who will they shoot first?

Can't wait.

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Right now, Russia is operating inside of Konstantinovka, a city with a pre-war population of almost 70,000 in Donbas. Russia is also entering the outskirts of Pokrovsk, an enormously strategically important city of 60,000 in Donbas. The Kursk raid on the other hand is a desperate spasm of no strategic significance. You idiots have no fricking idea what is going on.

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Yet the capturing of the giant metering station for natural gas going to Putin's buddies in Slovakia and Hungary is insignificant to you.

You really are not that smart.

WSJ reporter

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The Russian MOD publishes a list of locations where it struck Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region in the last 24 hours. The advance ???? armored units are within 9 miles of the Rylsk-Lgov-Kurchatov highway.

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Good report. I have stopped watching Times Radio. They are nothing but propaganda. Goebbells.would have been impressed with them.

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Since there have been numerous articles and statements on Telegram channels about the movement of Russian and Ukrainian reinforcements to the frontline, specifically the Kursk area, I think it's important to address a few points:

- Both Russian and Ukrainian forces face the same issue: battalions are often pulled from their brigades to reinforce weaker sections of the frontline. This means that when people hear "a brigade has moved," it might actually refer to only one or two battalions.

- We are now at a stage in the war where battalions can be essentially reinforced companies due to shortages of manpower and vehicles. This applies to both sides, as both Russia and Ukraine have created many new units and rapidly expanded their structures but lack enough personnel to fully staff existing units.

- Many OSINT analysts (this is not a criticism, just noting the limitations) often use FPV drone footage to identify the presence of specific units. For example, if X brigade posts a drone video from the Kherson area, it might be concluded that X brigade is operating there. However, native UAV units can be deployed separately for specific operations due to their mobility and effectiveness. Additionally, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have used this for disinformation, deliberately uploading videos from different locations with their logos to confuse the enemy.

Overall, when you read statements like "Another Ukrainian brigade has been spotted in Kursk" or "A Russian regiment from Krynky is heading to Kursk," it could mean anything from a company-sized battalion moving to a full brigade with thousands of personnel and dozens or even hundreds of vehicles.

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