re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Random tweets

Start off with Rybar from 2 hours ago

quote:

---

?????????? Kursk Direction: New Attempts of AFU Attacks
What is known as of 6:00 PM on August 10, 2024

Ukrainian formations continue to entrench themselves in the occupied part of the Kursk Region and are making attempts to advance deeper into Russian territory. The situation remains tense, although it has somewhat stabilized compared to previous days.

??In the Sudzha District, two Ukrainian tanks are firing from the vicinity of Honcharivka towards the eastern part of Sudzha. Earlier, there were reports of the Russian Armed Forces clearing the center and western outskirts of the city, but much of what is happening there is shrouded in the "fog of war".

Moreover, to fully control Sudzha, it is necessary to dislodge Ukrainian formations from the western outskirts and approaches - otherwise, the AFU will continue to shell the city and carry out sorties.

??On the southern flank, an enemy sabotage group has infiltrated the village of Plekhovo again: according to incoming information, AFU members have opened fire on civilians and are occupying homes.

??At the same time, Russian troops continue to strike with artillery and air power the positions and objects of the enemy both in the occupied part of the Kursk Region and in the neighboring Sumy Region. One of the hits was on the AFU's location in the children's camp "Kolosok" north of the village of Huyevo.

There is also unconfirmed information about the enemy's use of chlorine-filled ammunition, as a result of which the victims have breathing difficulties and symptoms of toxic substance poisoning.

??In the Korenevo District, the configuration of the front has become somewhat clearer: the presence of Ukrainian formations was recorded north of Lyubimovka. There they hold positions in forest areas, the largest of which is the Kultura tract.

??In Korenevo itself, the situation remains relatively calm, and the Internet even publishes footage of Russian servicemen at the entrance to the village.

??There is also a video of the destruction of a Ukrainian armored group of up to 15 armored vehicles in the forest southeast of the village of Kauchuk, which was heading towards Lgov.

Against the backdrop of the lack of successful AFU actions, Ukrainian media are increasingly spreading hastily created "evidence" of their presence in various settlements, as well as using archival videos from 2022 with strikes on Russian convoys. Similarly, they present videos of the capture of border guards filmed on the first day as today's footage.

#digest #map #Kursk #Russia #Ukraine

---

LINK

quote:

---

???????? On dangerous illusions about the offensive capabilities of the AFU

As the situation in the Kursk Region becomes relatively stabilized, there may be an impression that the offensive potential of the AFU in this direction has dried up, and it will not be too difficult to dislodge them from the captured border settlements.

However, this is erroneous and quite dangerous. Moreover, there is a certain set of characteristic signs that indirectly indicate that the main strike of the Ukrainian formations is still ahead.

??The concentrations of enemy forces near the Russian border have not gone anywhere, and the probability of a new offensive remains. Moreover, relatively large troop movements have been noticed in the Ukrainian rear, usually observed during the formation of groupings.

??The promised debut of the transferred American F-16 fighters has not yet taken place, and it is highly likely that the Ukrainian command is saving them not just like that. The version is supported by the fact that the Kyiv regime recently made large purchases of aviation fuel with delivery specifically in September.

??During past major offensives, the AFU always delivered two strikes: in 2022 in the Kherson and Kharkiv directions, and in 2023 in the Artemivsk and Zaporizhia directions. Therefore, it is not excluded that the enemy will try to attack again, taking advantage of the redeployment of Russian Armed Forces reinforcements from other sectors.

From a military point of view, such plans may raise questions. However, if we very carefully assume that the Kyiv regime really wants to reach negotiations by the end of the year under the pressure of its Western sponsors, then it clearly needs some trump cards for this.

The capture of the territories of the "old" Russian regions fits perfectly into this logic, as well as attempts at landings on Kinburn and Tendra Spit to create a threat to communications in Crimea. This is exactly what the Ukrainian formations are currently undertaking.

??Therefore, it is too early to relax. Yes, the AFU are no longer what they were in 2022, but the enemy has not yet lost its offensive capabilities.

Overconfidence and hasty conclusions that there is no one to fight in the so-called Ukraine lead to sad consequences like those we observed in the border area a few days ago.
#Kursk #Russia #Ukraine

---

LINK

quote:

---

Ukraine as well as plenty of AGM-88 HARM missiles when they do start flying SEAD sorties.

---

Knocking out Russian radar for anti-air and anti-artillery return fire would seriously hamper Russian forces. F16's are much better suited for that than the jury rigged old Soviet era Migs.

quote:

---

Meanwhile in the real world Ukraine’s death rattle desperation fever dream offensive is coming to a rapid end in a predictable manner

---

Hey, welcome back, BKR! You are certainly free to predict what you like, and some of us know how some of your prior predictions have turned out.

Here's my prediction, based on the still very limited amount of info that we have right now:

The Ukrainian invasion in Kursk is starting to slow down. Ukraine can only go so far so fast with its logistics and limited personnel, and Russia is finally starting to bring in real reinforcements.

But Ukraine still has the initiative, and that will likely continue for a few more days. Instead of continuing to push forward everywhere, though, they will now look for clear opportunities, attacking where they have a clear advantage or gain a favorable position.

As Ukraine pushes forward, they mining approaches and making it difficult for Russia to throw them back quickly in any area, while they are simultaneously digging trenches and building fortifications. Ukraine has pushed forward so far with comparatively little loss, so they aren't about to try to fight stronger Russian positions and lose men and equipment that they can't afford to lose.

Accordingly, as Russia continues to bring in other units and reserves, the front lines will begin to stabilize in the next few days. Ukraine will prioritize the defense of the territory it's taken, but Russia doesn't have the resources to retake it quickly without taking units from elsewhere on the front -- and they don't want to do that.

So, Russia will begin a long, tedious, costly process of trying to retake its own territory, and this section of the front will turn into something very similar to the other front lines in the conflict.

There have been numerous occasions in the last few months where Zelensky has said something to the effect that the war will/should climax this year.

I think what we're seeing is Ukraine's effort to end the war, they have saved up equipment and launched this surprise attack. This isn't a raid, this is Ukraine giving their best shot at winning or at least forcing Russia to the table from a weaker position.

Ukraine is going to throw everything they can at making this successful. I think they are just holding the F16's back until they can make a maximum impact on the Russians.

quote:

---

DefMon reports on what he emphasizes are RUMORS of the insertion of another Ukrainian brigade making a push to the east:

---

Seems that the rumors were false:

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

As others have pointed out, though, this just shows the extreme level of panic right now among the Russian milbloggers.

quote:

---

So, Russia will begin a long, tedious, costly process of trying to retake its own territory, and this section of the front will turn into something very similar to the other front lines in the conflict.

---

Probably about right. As noted, Russia will be destroying their own villages and towns.

Ukraine may have more tricks up their sleeve.

quote:

---

Russia will continue to burn up men and equipment in grinding advances, until it exhausts its combat power and can no longer advance, in much the same way as in late 2022.

---

Russia has at least five times as many soldiers in the Donbas today as it had in 2022, but OK.

My dear, dear BKR, you insisted about a dozen times that Russia would never lose the city of Kherson, even when it was blindingly obvious that Russia would not be able to logistically support its forces there.

You will have to forgive me for doubting your current expertise as a master of military strategy.

quote:

---

You’re right I was very naive back then.

---

So, how have you become a military expert in the last two years? Did you enroll in a military academy? Serve on the front lines?

I'm glad to see that you are alive and well, as I worried that you might have been part of some meat assault to conquer some burnt ruin of what used to be some town.

quote:

---

Russia has at least five times as many soldiers in the Donbas today as it had in 2022, but OK.

---

So you're claiming that Russia has 1.5M men in this fight now and can only manage a few square km a day

This is almost as stupid as Lima claiming Ukraine has over 500k KIA with Russia having less than 50k KIA