re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Put differently, had terms of surrender following WWI resembled those ending WWII, the German foundations of Hitler's rise and European war would have been largely absent. I suppose, based on your response, you didn't know that. The Polish Corridor alone was a predictable casus belli, and in fact, it turned out to be just that.

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Oh come on. When have I shown any deficiency with matters of the historical record?

The claim that the Pacific theater could have been avoided is spurious, because the US did go to great lengths to avoid the war. I touch on it a little bit earlier in this thread. LINK

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When have I shown any deficiency with matters of the historical record?

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Two examples are your "dear lord" post .... and here: "The claim that the Pacific theater could have been avoided is spurious, because the US did go to great lengths to avoid the war."

To the contrary, the US did everything one would expect, if the effort was to economically goad Japan into an attack.

There are several well done treatises on western influence driving Japanese colonialism and respondent ramifications of American economic weaponry targeting Japan in the prelude to war.

"The Evolution of Japanese Colonialism" by Kublin; and "Japan Prepares for Total War : The Search for Economic Security, 1919-1941" by Barnhart were written in different eras, but both cover the topic nicely.

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That is true. The minimum conscription age is 25. It was 27 until early this year. The only way for 18-24 year olds to serve is to volunteer. I have asked my contacts in Ukraine why that is and nobody really knew for sure. They just knew it was a rule made by the communist authorities in the Ukrainian SSR and it was carried over to the Ukrainian republic. Dumb AF to me.

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My understanding was that it was originally a rule designed to address demographic concerns. Ukraine has a declining population, and the idea was that men would marry and reproduce before being drafted and possibly dying.

Fascinating. Ukraine is now using its big quadcopter "baba Yaga" drones to launch precision-guided munitions.

So, a capability that was previously restricted to the extremely large drones, such as a MQ-9 Reaper or a Bayraktar, is now executed by much, much smaller drones.

The War Zone

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To the contrary, the US did everything one would expect, if the effort was to economically goad Japan into an attack.

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Again, not supported by the historical record.

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There are several well done treatises on western influence driving Japanese colonialism and respondent ramifications of American economic weaponry targeting Japan in the prelude to war.

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And there are primary sources from Japanese High Command that straight up says they are planning war with the US before any economic warfare was started.

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before being drafted and possibly dying

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Dude it's weird that thinking about this makes you moist.

Looking at the airbase on google maps and comparing to the FIRMS data, it appears Ukraine hit the weapons storage areas and the aircraft revetments.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1819606798996832756


Airbase in Google Maps


Here you can see the location of the airbase in Russia in relationship to Ukraine
Google Maps

If you zoom into the airfield, it appears they use it for SU-34's. The Google maps image that shows all the planes was taken in 2024 so it is a fairly recent picture; however, the distribution of planes last night would have been different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34

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And there are primary sources from Japanese High Command that straight up says they are planning war with the US before any economic warfare was started.

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You have no clue what that (planning war) means. None. I gave you some reading material. Brush up.

I'll respond briefly in this post. If you want to detail it further, start another thread. This has nothing to do with the OP, and spun-off based on the oft cited contention that war represents failure of diplomacy.

Regarding military planning, contingency work and analysis is a rudimentary element. Any military. Any time. Meaning pre-WWII, we were similarly planning, both in terms of the Pacific and Atlantic Theaters. Many describe those preparations (with plenty of justification btw) as associated with fervative searches for a casus belli.

However, specific Japanese attack planning began in early 1941. It surrounded plans to capture South Pacific raw resources. That was two years or so after the US terminated its commercial treaty with Japan, and 6 mos after we passed the Export Control Act and sundry embargoes.

Pearl Harbor planning began at the same time and as result of the US entering dialogue with both British and Dutch to cut off all oil exports to Japan (eventually enacted in July 1941). The 1941 Oil Embargo created an untenable situation for Japan, basically pushing it to attempt to seize such assets in the South Pacific. FDR&Co surmised that would be the case. We confirmed our presumptions when we intercepted Japanese diplomatic cables to that effect months before PH.

Those are the simple facts.

Japan was active in WW2 before Pearl. As a member of the Axis they invaded French Indochina. Before that they were fighting China.

Japan was a militaristic country and if the US had not put sanctions on them they may never have attacked Pearl. There’s no way to know for sure, what would have happened if the US had not been attacked and Japan had gone unchecked.