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3
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:10 am to CitizenK
The Russian advance near Pohres is along a "ridge" so that concerns me. Russian advances which ended up being chopped up were in valleys. It was their breakthrough at Popasna on a ridge which allowed them to take ground in the east mainly by cutting off supply lines to terrain features which gave advantage to Ukr.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:35 am to CitizenK
Rebels in Mali Display Ukrainian Flag After Wagner Defeat
Kyiv Post obtained an exclusive photo of Tuareg rebels posing with a Ukrainian flag after defeating Wagner mercenaries over the weekend.
by Kateryna Zakharchenko | July 29, 2024, 4:23 pm
Kyiv Post obtained an exclusive photo of Tuareg rebels posing with a Ukrainian flag after defeating Wagner mercenaries over the weekend.
by Kateryna Zakharchenko | July 29, 2024, 4:23 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:08 am to LSUPilot07
So the US can do 500-550, Japan currently 60 per year. With all the drones and missles, that ain't gonna last long. Gonna need some others to ramp up also, if there are any that can
Posted on 7/29/24 at 11:55 am to ticklechain
LINK
quote:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $200 million to provide Ukraine with key capabilities, including: air defense interceptors; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.
In addition, DoD is announcing a significant package of support using approximately $1.5 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. This package includes capabilities to augment Ukraine's air defenses, fires, and anti-tank weapons, as well as funding to sustain equipment previously committed by the United States.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Short- and medium-range air defense munitions;
RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
Electronic Warfare equipment;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
120mm mortar rounds;
Precision aerial munitions;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms;
Explosives material and demolitions equipment and munitions;
Secure communications systems;
Commercial satellite imagery services; and
Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support, and other ancillary equipment.
This is the Biden Administration's twentieth USAI package and sixty-second tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine and since August 2021.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:09 pm to LSUPilot07
Ukraine is getting more of these man pads. They are extremely fast and can't be jammed or fooled by flairs. They can be launched from drones, shoulder launched or vehicle launched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwOs-2L_kwY
quote:
Ukrainian Troops Get the StarStreak MANPAD – Here’s Why It’s So Deadly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwOs-2L_kwY
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.
Seems like they need a bunch more Bradley's with some updated anti-drone tech to be tested in real world combat conditions.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:12 pm to VolSquatch
Wow advancing an entire km per day! You sound like Stidham13 did two years ago.
If Prohreas falls the Russians will be 13 miles away from Pokrovsk. It will fall anytime now. Oh wait, it has taken the Russians 5 months to move approximately 10 miles from
Avdiivka to Prohress. If the Russians keep advancing at the same pace they have advanced since the fall of Avdiivka, it will take them around 6 months to cross the 13 miles to reach Pokrovsk. Once they reach Pokrovsk, they have to fight through wooded terrain and cross a river to actually reach the river.
If Prohreas falls the Russians will be 13 miles away from Pokrovsk. It will fall anytime now. Oh wait, it has taken the Russians 5 months to move approximately 10 miles from
Avdiivka to Prohress. If the Russians keep advancing at the same pace they have advanced since the fall of Avdiivka, it will take them around 6 months to cross the 13 miles to reach Pokrovsk. Once they reach Pokrovsk, they have to fight through wooded terrain and cross a river to actually reach the river.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:18 pm to VolSquatch
I don’t see Russia being pushed back without the US getting extremely involved. Which rational people do not want.
Best case scenario - Trump can negotiate a peace treaty in which Ukraine does not give up any land. Russia is heavily sanctioned.
Acceptable scenario - War ends and Ukraine gives up a tiny amount of land along the border.
Worst case scenario - War drags on with tens of thousands more killed. The US gets heavily involved and provokes Russian retaliation and/or US troops are killed.
Best case scenario - Trump can negotiate a peace treaty in which Ukraine does not give up any land. Russia is heavily sanctioned.
Acceptable scenario - War ends and Ukraine gives up a tiny amount of land along the border.
Worst case scenario - War drags on with tens of thousands more killed. The US gets heavily involved and provokes Russian retaliation and/or US troops are killed.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:20 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The aggregate is smaller than Russia in everything but probably aircraft.
This little jewel sent me down the Russian MBT rabbit hole. These are the bullet points that I picked up from a series online sources.
After the T-72 ran out of steam, and the T-80 wasn't a practical tank due to its complex turbine engine (they tried to replicate the Abrams engine performance but failed), the future was supposed to be the diesel T-90.
They made about 4000 of them from 1990 to 2010. But they were desperate for cash in this era, so they exported most of them. The Russian army and marines only even got their hands on about 600 of the 4000.
In about 2010 T-90 production stopped. Of the 600 in Russian service, at least half have been destroyed in combat.
T-90 production stopped in order to make way for the T-14, which was supposed to be the world's first true 4th Gen MBT.
The first T-14s were spotted in Victory Day parades around 2014 and 2015. But one famously broke down on the parade route. And they couldn't get the complex electronics to operate the sites, night vision, or fire control computer. Because of the sanctions from the Little Green Men invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
Despite this Putin ordered 2300 to be delivered by 2022.
But by 2020, only about 12 had been completed. And those didn't work. And the program was cancelled.
Except when 2022 rolled around and Russia lost the Battle of Kiev, Putin ordered the immediate serial production of the T-14 to begin. With the first batch of 120 tanks to be deliverd by the end of the 2023.
Here we are more than halfway through 2024. Still no T-14s on the battlefield. And Russia still losing over 100 of its old obsolete tanks every month.
Still waiting.
TLDR: The great Russian industrial capacity stopped making tanks in 2010. Despite ordering 2300 of its next generation tank nearly 15 years ago, essentially zero functioning tanks have been produced.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:40 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Wow advancing an entire km per day! You sound like Stidham13 did two years ago.
I didn't make a comment about the advances one way or the other. I posted a thread with some good info others have commented on as well.
Leave it to WeeWee to make posting what appears to be a fairly objective analysis of the situation into something more than it is. And it may not even be that objective since the poster is based out of Finland and used language in the post that made it obvious he is pro-Ukraine.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 12:44 pm to texag7
quote:
I don’t see Russia being pushed back without the US getting extremely involved. Which rational people do not want.
Even the most robotic of all the Ukraine bots in this thread don't really claim Ukraine will push them out. With out a peace deal Russia either wins or quits.
Rational people don't openly want that, no. But rational people support policies that make that outcome more likely without realizing it.
quote:
Best case scenario - Trump can negotiate a peace treaty in which Ukraine does not give up any land. Russia is heavily sanctioned.
Acceptable scenario - War ends and Ukraine gives up a tiny amount of land along the border.
Worst case scenario - War drags on with tens of thousands more killed. The US gets heavily involved and provokes Russian retaliation and/or US troops are killed.
I don't see Ukraine giving up no land AND Russia still gets hit with the sanctions hammer. Where is the incentive for Russia to sign at that point? Both sides will need to feel like they are gaining something. I think the best case and right now probably most likely scenario is Russia gets sanctioned and gets some territory and/or Crimea is turned into a special district/zone of some kind.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:02 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Even the most robotic of all the Ukraine bots in this thread don't really claim Ukraine will push them out.
The Donbas will be almost impossible. It would take basically a revolution and complete regime change to a more western friendly government that wants to actually participate in the world economic and social structure.
But Crimea is another story. Russia cannot stay there while hostilies are ongoing. They have already abandoned their naval bases (which was like 90% of the point to taking Crimea to begin with). And the bridges will soon be under F-16 fire. Their airfilelds on Crimea are losing AA missile batteries every month. And with F-16 and HARM coming soon, they won't be able to protect those air fields.
No bridges, no ferries, no airfields, no naval bases, no fresh water....what is the point of holding Crimea? Ukraine can make them absolutely hate it. I am not sure they can stay there in any sort of capacity other than a "neutral self governing territory with no military presence from either side"
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:30 pm to No Colors
quote:
The Donbas will be almost impossible. It would take basically a revolution and complete regime change to a more western friendly government that wants to actually participate in the world economic and social structure.
The Donbas is so destroyed that I don’t see why Ukraine would want it back other than deny Russia a land bridge to Crimea. Of course, in this day and age of technology a land bridge is not as good as it would have been years ago. Unless Russia knocks Ukraine out and gets them to be a puppet state then Ukraine or the rest will be able to render a land bridge unusable with drones, missiles, and aircraft.
quote:
But Crimea is another story. Russia cannot stay there while hostilies are ongoing. They have already abandoned their naval bases (which was like 90% of the point to taking Crimea to begin with). And the bridges will soon be under F-16 fire. Their airfilelds on Crimea are losing AA missile batteries every month. And with F-16 and HARM coming soon, they won't be able to protect those air fields.
Honestly I am surprised that Ukraine has not started using drones to attack trains in the occupied territories.
ETA:
quote:
what is the point of holding Crimea?
Pride, military bases, ice free port, control of the Sea of Azov, and lots of natural gas. However those are just the reasons that I can think of off the top of my head. I’m sure there are more.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:39 pm to No Colors
quote:
what is the point of holding Crimea?
I think Crimea (or at least access to it) is one of the things Russia feels it HAS to leave this conflict with. If you don't control it when negotiations start, the prospect of that happening is significantly neutered. Ukraine finally realized that and really turned up the heat there.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 1:45 pm to texag7
quote:
I don’t see Russia holding Moscow and Stalingrad without the US getting extremely involved in the Eastern Front.
FIFY
Posted on 7/29/24 at 2:24 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
The U.S. and Japan are both increasing the production of Patriot missiles with the first recipient being Ukraine for at least the next 16 months.
Better make that 5 months bc this gravy train finna end, amigo.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 7/29/24 at 2:41 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Did you look at the thread or just at the first tweet?
Both
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:59 pm to SirWinston
quote:
this gravy train finna end, amigo.
Are you deducing that from Trump's statements about how he would make aid to Ukraine a loan rather than a gift?
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