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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/9/24 at 7:12 pm to doubleb
Posted on 7/9/24 at 7:12 pm to doubleb
It looks like around 5 more air defense systems are set to be announced soon at the meetings. I’m not sure if this is the U.S. buying back some of the PAC-2 PATRIOT systems from Israel or if it’s a mix of Patriot, NASAMS, etc but the more the better. I would think at least 3 are Patriots though.
1
Posted on 7/9/24 at 7:27 pm to LSUPilot07
The 4 new Patriots + the SAMP battery from Italy have all been previously announced (EDIT: and the German system has already been delivered). This is just an announcement of all of them together.
And, no, this doesn't include any of the Israeli systems. Those are still being negotiated.
Edit:
And, no, this doesn't include any of the Israeli systems. Those are still being negotiated.
Edit:
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 7/9/24 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 7/9/24 at 10:45 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Now that you mention it coltrange hasn't posted in over a month...
I have a life that doesn't revolve around two shitty countries 6000 miles away.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 1:19 am to ColtRange
quote:
I have a life that doesn't revolve around two shitty countries 6000 miles away.
Every one of your posts is about this war
Posted on 7/10/24 at 5:49 am to BamaSaint
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a joint statement on July 9 about strengthening mutually beneficial political, economic, energy, and military-technical cooperation between Russia and India.
Putin has been intensifying efforts to strengthen Russian relations with non-Western countries through individualized appeals, although he is likely emphasizing Russo-Indian cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS as part of a wider Russian effort to create an alternative "Eurasian security architecture" leveraging existing Eurasian multilateral organizations.
Modi tacitly supported the Kremlin's false narrative that Russia is interested in a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine, likely in exchange for deepening economic, energy, and technological cooperation with Russia.
Putin may have pledged to return Indian volunteers fighting in Ukraine during a private dinner with Modi in Novo-Ogaryovo, Moscow Oblast on July 8.
Some unnamed US government officials appear to believe that Ukraine does not need to liberate its occupied lands and people to win the war, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent clear statements that Russia will not accept a negotiated ceasefire on any terms other than Ukrainian capitulation and will not abandon its goals of the total destruction of the entire Ukrainian state--not just the lands it currently occupies.
Several independent investigations, including one conducted by the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), concluded that a Russian missile struck the Kyiv City Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital on July 8 amid continued official Russian denials and deflections.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian energy and military infrastructure in Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Astrakhan, and Volgograd oblasts overnight on July 8 to 9.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed new military prosecutors on July 8, likely in support of ongoing, long-term Russian military reforms.
Newly-elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's continued willingness to enter a comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, emphasizing the continuity in Iran's support for Russia even under a new presidential administration.
The US Department of Justice (DoJ) released affidavits on July 9 for several hundred X (formerly Twitter) accounts and domain names used by Russian state media and security services to operate a bot farm aimed at spreading disinformation in the US and abroad.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree ordering the reestablishment of the Saratov Higher Artillery Command School on July 8, likely as part of ongoing efforts to build out a cadre of Russian officers.
Russian authorities continue to deploy Rosgvardia contingents to occupied Ukraine to serve law enforcement functions.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:24 am to StormyMcMan
Random tweets and 1 article
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
In a leaked letter seen Tuesday by POLITICO, the Hungarian prime minister underlined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist position on Ukraine so thoroughly he could have been auditioning for the role of Kremlin spokesperson.
The missive, addressed to European Council President Charles Michel and shared with other members of the European Council, lays out Putin’s thinking about the status of his war in Ukraine — and what Orbán reckons the EU’s next steps should be..
quote:
Orbán — who denied he was articulating “any opinion on behalf of the European Council or the European Union” during his Moscow visit — went on to say that “the Russian side estimates the monthly losses and casualties of the Ukrainian forces at 40-50 thousand soldiers,” while making no reference to Russian losses in the war.
He added that Moscow was “ready to consider any ceasefire proposal that does not serve the hidden relocation and reorganization of Ukrainian forces,” without explaining further what Putin meant by that.
In Orbán’s account of the meeting, he says he observed to Putin that “many argue that it is in the interest of Europe to return to a period of economic growth based on lasting peace as soon as possible,” adding: “The chance for peace is diminished by the fact that diplomatic channels are blocked and there is no direct dialogue between the parties who have a leading role to play in creating the conditions for peace.”
The EU and its leaders have largely shut down communications with Moscow amid a deluge of sanctions leveled by the bloc against Russia following the invasion.
quote:
Orbán wrote, in point eight, that he believed a cease-fire and peace talks were still possible, but added that “in the next two months we will see more dramatic losses and military developments on the frontlines than ever before” if the war doesn’t come to a halt.
He then concluded that Europe should take the lead on trying to thrash out peace in Ukraine, given that the U.S. is increasingly distracted as its November presidential election approaches.
“Political leadership provided by the United States is limited, due to the ongoing election campaign,” Orbán wrote. “Therefore we can expect no such proposal coming from the U.S. in the coming months. We should consider — in the spirit of European strategic autonomy — launching a European initiative.”
LINK
quote:
Russia produces almost 8 times as many Kh-101 missiles as before full-scale invasion - Financial Times
Russia produced just 56 in 2021. However, after the Russian military-industrial complex went on "military rails", 420 Kh-101 missiles were produced in 2023.
The newspaper recalls that this missile contains more than 50 different foreign-made parts.
LINK
quote:
Poland has stopped allowing trucks at the checkpoint "Kozlovichi" on the Belarusian border
This was reported by the Customs Committee of Belarus. The agency says that since 03.00 on July 10, the Polish side no longer accepts trucks coming from Belarus
LINK
quote:
UK authorises strikes with Storm Shadow cruise missiles deep into Russian territory, — Bloomberg, citing the country's new defence minister, Keir Starmer.
LINK
quote:
A Russian citizen suspected of circumventing sanctions has been arrested in Japan. This is the first such case.
The suspect is accused of illegally exporting personal watercraft to Russia on a container ship. According to the investigation, it is about jet skis and marine diesel engines. The export of such products is subject to restrictions due to fears that they may be used for military purposes, the publication says.
This is the first case of arresting a Russian for violating sanctions imposed in March 2022.
LINK
quote:
The Russian Federal Security Service said that it had prevented a terrorist attack on the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov
As reported in the agency, in March 2024, an officer of the ship corresponded with a member of the Ukrainian security services, known as "Oleg", who psychologically influenced him, promising departure abroad and reward, as well as threatening criminal responsibility. The officer contacted the FSB and continued the correspondence under their control.
"Oleg" claimed that the operation was allegedly supervised by the head of The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine of the Defense Ministry Kyrylo Budanov.
In addition, a Russian who had delivered three explosive devices to Moscow on an assignment from alleged Ukrainian intelligence was detained. He admitted that "in May 2024 he was recruited by Ukrainian military intelligence to prepare terrorist attacks."
LINK
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:32 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russia produces almost 8 times as many Kh-101 missiles as before full-scale invasion - Financial Times
Russia produced just 56 in 2021. However, after the Russian military-industrial complex went on "military rails", 420 Kh-101 missiles were produced in 2023.
The newspaper recalls that this missile contains more than 50 different foreign-made parts.
This point makes me somewhat doubt the "Russia will run out of tanks" narrative. They are either producing them somewhere that we don't know about yet or plan to source them from China when they do start running low.
On the other hand, its much less resource intensive to produce a missile than it is a tank. 8x-ing your production of anything is impressive, but is the raw number really that large? It doesn't seem like it to me. And with the way things are going with drone warfare the importance of tanks at all seems to be waning.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:33 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Orbán wrote, in point eight, that he believed a cease-fire and peace talks were still possible, but added that “in the next two months we will see more dramatic losses and military developments on the frontlines than ever before” if the war doesn’t come to a halt.
This tells me that Putin is not so sure that Trump won't make sure the dog shite is beat out of Russia
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:35 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 July 2024
Open-source reporting has highlighted that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed 26 Russian Navy vessels operating in the Black Sea region between February 2022 and June 2024. Strikes have occurred across the northern region of the Black Sea and within the Sea of Azov.
There has been an increase in the frequency and level of damage caused by attacks around the Crimean Peninsula over the last year, with nearly two thirds of strikes occurring within this period.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 July 2024
Open-source reporting has highlighted that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed 26 Russian Navy vessels operating in the Black Sea region between February 2022 and June 2024. Strikes have occurred across the northern region of the Black Sea and within the Sea of Azov.
There has been an increase in the frequency and level of damage caused by attacks around the Crimean Peninsula over the last year, with nearly two thirds of strikes occurring within this period.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:35 am to CitizenK
quote:
This tells me that Putin is not so sure that Trump won't make sure the dog shite is beat out of Russia
Posted on 7/10/24 at 6:52 am to VolSquatch
Not at all if you have EVER actually paid attention to Trump.
He has stated in multiple occasions that if Russia refused to negotiate in good faith he would send the most modern weapons and more than Ukraine could use. Russia is not done so great against 30 year old weapons.
His issue about aid is that it didn't need to have been spent if Biden had been so weak allowing Russia to think they could easily win. He said in the debate that Putin's demands were NOT acceptable.
This only shows that you don't actually pay attention and don't know a lot at all
He has stated in multiple occasions that if Russia refused to negotiate in good faith he would send the most modern weapons and more than Ukraine could use. Russia is not done so great against 30 year old weapons.
His issue about aid is that it didn't need to have been spent if Biden had been so weak allowing Russia to think they could easily win. He said in the debate that Putin's demands were NOT acceptable.
This only shows that you don't actually pay attention and don't know a lot at all
Posted on 7/10/24 at 7:00 am to CitizenK
quote:
Russia is not done so great
quote:
This only shows that you don't actually pay attention and don't know a lot at all
Whatever you need to tell yourself. I know you're flustered at the prospect of your country not getting even more American taxpayer-funded equipment and dollars.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 7:04 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 7/10/24 at 7:20 am to CitizenK
Every nation in NATO is either spending 2% of GDP on defense, or they have a plan to ramp up spending to that level (though some of those plans are likely fantasy).
Except Canada. Canada is spending only about 1%, they have no plan to increase defense spending, and they are simply extending the middle finger to NATO.
It's appropriate for a senator representing Alaska to call that out, but notice that we don't hear anything about this from Jake Sullivan or from Biden.
Except Canada. Canada is spending only about 1%, they have no plan to increase defense spending, and they are simply extending the middle finger to NATO.
It's appropriate for a senator representing Alaska to call that out, but notice that we don't hear anything about this from Jake Sullivan or from Biden.
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Posted on 7/10/24 at 8:03 am to GOP_Tiger
Can I ask a.simple question?
If a NATO member doesn't spend the 2% agreed upon amount, Why in the hell should the US taxpayer have to provide for their defense?
In my world if you are a member of a club and you don't pay your dues, you are usually kicked out and/or don't receive the benefits of that club.
I know that there are some radical leftists that post here that believe in a welfare state but damn. We are trillions in debt and you want to continue to sacrifice your children's or grandchildren future on the protection of Canadians, Portugal, Spain, Montenegro? Frick the damn welchers.
BTW: Frick that panty waist Trudeau.
If a NATO member doesn't spend the 2% agreed upon amount, Why in the hell should the US taxpayer have to provide for their defense?
In my world if you are a member of a club and you don't pay your dues, you are usually kicked out and/or don't receive the benefits of that club.
I know that there are some radical leftists that post here that believe in a welfare state but damn. We are trillions in debt and you want to continue to sacrifice your children's or grandchildren future on the protection of Canadians, Portugal, Spain, Montenegro? Frick the damn welchers.
BTW: Frick that panty waist Trudeau.
This post was edited on 7/10/24 at 8:10 am
Posted on 7/10/24 at 8:51 am to AU86
quote:
Can I ask a.simple question?
If a NATO member doesn't spend the 2% agreed upon amount, Why in the hell should the US taxpayer have to provide for their defense?
Not going to go one way or another on this one, but it's probably at least worth framing this better. First thing, 2% isn't mandated, it's just a guideline.
Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline
quote:
The 2% defence investment guideline
In 2014, NATO Heads of State and Government agreed to commit 2% of their national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defence spending, to help ensure the Alliance's continued military readiness. This decision was taken in response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and amid broader instability in the Middle East. The 2014 Defence Investment Pledge built on an earlier commitment to meeting this 2% of GDP guideline, agreed in 2006 by NATO Defence Ministers. The 2% of GDP guideline is an important indicator of the political resolve of individual Allies to contribute to NATO’s common defence efforts.
In 2024, 23 Allies are expected to meet or exceed the target of investing at least 2% of GDP in defence, compared to only three Allies in 2014. Over the past decade, European Allies and Canada have steadily increased their collective investment in defence – from 1.43% of their combined GDP in 2014, to 2.02% in 2024, when they are investing a combined total of more than USD 430 billion in defence.
In order to ensure that these funds are spent in the most effective and efficient way to acquire and deploy modern capabilities, NATO Allies have also agreed that at least 20% of defence expenditure should be devoted to major new equipment. This includes associated research and development, perceived as a crucial indicator for the scale and pace of modernisation.
And FWIW the target to hit 2% was 2024. Basically they had 10 years to try to meet the mark
Actual funding of NATO is separate:
Funding NATO
quote:
NATO is resourced through the direct and indirect contributions of its members. NATO’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes, which equate to only 0.3% of total Allied defence spending (around EUR 3.8 billion for 2024). These funds enable NATO to deliver capabilities and run the entirety of the Organization and its military commands.
quote:
Cost share arrangements for civil budget, military budget and NATO Security Investment Programme
Nation Cost share "at 32" following the accession of Sweden
Valid as from 7 March 2024 until 31 December 2024
Albania 0.0882
Belgium 2.0447
Bulgaria 0.3552
Canada 6.6840
Croatia 0.2910
Czechia 1.0259
Denmark 1.2744
Estonia 0.1213
Finland 0.9057
France 10.1940
Germany 15.8813
Greece 1.0273
Hungary 0.7380
Iceland 0.0624
Italy 8.5324
Latvia 0.1550
Lithuania 0.2493
Luxembourg 0.1645
Montenegro 0.0283
Netherlands 3.3528
North Macedonia 0.0756
Norway 1.7267
Poland 2.9015
Portugal 1.0194
Romania 1.1931
Slovakia 0.5014
Slovenia 0.2212
Spain 5.8211
Sweden 1.9277
Türkiye 4.5927
United Kingdom 10.9626
United States 15.8813
Posted on 7/10/24 at 8:53 am to AU86
quote:
If a NATO member doesn't spend the 2% agreed upon amount, Why in the hell should the US taxpayer have to provide for their defense?
Additionally, we have a program administered by the Senate which gives free access for companies within NATO to invest in anything in the USA as if they were US companies. This was enacted way back when for countries torn by WWII to increase their GDP to afford the 2%
Posted on 7/10/24 at 9:36 am to CitizenK
France will train 24 pilots to fly the 12 Mirage 2000-5 aircraft they will
give to Ukraine. These will effectively let Ukraine finally retire the few Su-24M aircraft still have airworthy to carry Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles. The Mirage is a much better platform to use to launch these than the Su-24M was so this is a nice upgrade to Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russia.
LINK
give to Ukraine. These will effectively let Ukraine finally retire the few Su-24M aircraft still have airworthy to carry Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles. The Mirage is a much better platform to use to launch these than the Su-24M was so this is a nice upgrade to Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russia.
LINK
Posted on 7/10/24 at 9:47 am to AU86
quote:
If a NATO member doesn't spend the 2% agreed upon amount, Why in the hell should the US taxpayer have to provide for their defense?
It doesn't work that way, but there should be economic consequences for nations that don't do their part.
Posted on 7/10/24 at 10:36 am to CitizenK
quote:
This tells me that Putin is not so sure that Trump won't make sure the dog shite is beat out of Russia
I expect Trump to use the carrot and big stick approach to any negotiation. I doubt Putin will go for the carrot.
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