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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/20/24 at 6:13 pm to
Posted by ElChupacabra
Member since Jun 2023
145 posts
Posted on 5/20/24 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

Are you saying Russia has never tried to assassinate Zelensky or that Russia didn't turn one of his body guards?


I'm saying the dozens of assassination attempts on Zelensky didn't happen.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9800 posts
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:33 pm to
Gazprom and other companies on the Moscow stock exchange have suspended dividend payments. Price has dropped over 10% since May 2
This post was edited on 5/20/24 at 8:45 pm
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3783 posts
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:15 pm to
Isw update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian sources indicated that Russian forces are concentrating limited, understaffed, and incohesive forces in the Sumy direction, but even such a Russian grouping of forces will be able to achieve the likely desired effect of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces in the international border area.

Kremlin officials expressed their condolences to senior Iranian officials following the announcement of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian's deaths on May 20.

Russian President Vladimir Putin fired Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yury Sadovenko on May 20, replacing him with former Deputy Economic Minister and current Federation Council Accounts Chamber Auditor Oleg Savelyev.

Putin also dismissed Presidential Advisor Alexandra Levitskaya on May 20, but the reason for Levitskaya’s dismissal is unclear.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated the White House's unwillingness to approve Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons in strikes against military targets in Russia following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein format) on May 20.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated that some unspecified countries, presumably NATO member states, have already sent personnel to train Ukrainian soldiers "on the ground."

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev amplified a known Russian information operation aimed at directly undermining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as president.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the Dnipro River Delta.

Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii (iStories) reported that Russian military authorities and Kazakh law enforcement acting on Russian orders detained at least two more servicemen in Kazakhstan who had deserted from the Russian military.


Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
820 posts
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:22 pm to
uh...



how do they... uh... think they can claim...uh.. this guy?

Posted by gizmothepug
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2015
6708 posts
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

I'm saying the dozens of assassination attempts on Zelensky didn't happen.


How can you say that with a straight face? You can call it assassination attempts or Russia attempting to cut the head off its perceived snake of an enemy, but I’d wager it definitely happened. When invading a country especially in today’s world, why wouldn’t you try to take out the senior level leadership in said government?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
18073 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 4:37 am to
Germany Warms to US Plan to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine Funds


Bloomberg:

quote:

In an about face, German officials are ready to support a US plan to leverage the future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets — mostly stranded in Europe — to back $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Germany’s assent could be a crucial step that brings Washington and its allies closer to securing a substantial new aid package for Kyiv and ensuring US engagement regardless of the outcome of the November election.

US and EU officials say momentum is gathering behind the US proposal, which is expected to dominate talks between finance ministers and central bank governors from Group of Seven nations gathering in Stresa, Italy, for their annual meeting starting Thursday.

But German officials don’t expect any final agreement until G-7 leaders meet June 13-15, nor implementation to take place until next year, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

At stake is whether Ukraine’s government can remain financially viable — funding its defense and servicing its debt — through 2025. With the war showing no signs of abating and Russia’s military offensive gaining ground, Ukraine’s staunchest backers are keen to secure medium-term financing for the embattled country and send a signal to Moscow that support for Kyiv among G-7 allies is not faltering.



Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
18073 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 5:01 am to
If that $50 billion happens, it should remove any need for any additional US cash assistance to Ukraine. The Ukrainians won't have to sweat out US elections and wonder if 2025 is the year that they can't pay first responders and keep the electricity on.

And even if Congress were to fail to approve any additional military aid in 2025, we would presumably still allow Ukraine to buy artillery shells and various missiles for things like Patriot and HIMARS.

Getting the Germans onboard is huge. Hopefully, we can get everyone else ready by next month.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3783 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 6:19 am to
Random tweets

quote:

EU approved the using of revenues from Russia's central bank's frozen assets to help Ukraine.

Up to €3B only this year, 90% goes for Ukraine's military.
Russia will pay for its war damages.

What Putin destroyed Russia must pay to rebuild.

LINK

quote:

Germany has raised almost €1 billion to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, - German Foreign Minister Berbock has said

She also emphasized that Germany was "literally looking under every rock" for new Patriot systems and was working to hand over even more funds to Ukraine.

LINK

quote:

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles revealed a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:

- Leopard-2A4 MBTs
- 155mm munition
- Patriot missiles
- Anti drone systems
- RCWSs
- Video surveillance systems

LINK

quote:

Defense forces managed to stabilize the situation in Vovchansk.

This was stated by the spokesman of the "Khortytsia" OSGT, Nazar Voloshyn.

Voloshyn added that the russians do not stop trying to break through the defenses of our units near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Starytsia.

LINK

quote:

US offers Georgia support in exchange for democracy and is going to impose sanctions against pro-Kremlin politicians

The U.S. is going to offer #Georgia support in exchange for changing its anti-Western rhetoric and abandoning its "anti-democratic course," Politico quoted Republican Joe Wilson's bill as saying.

The proposal discusses the possibility of visa liberalization for Georgians, as well as economic and military aid, provided Georgia makes "significant progress in strengthening democracy."

The same bill provides for the imposition of sanctions against Georgian politicians associated with the adoption of the "foreign agents" law.

LINK

quote:

Over the past three months, Russian military aviation has dropped 53 FABs (high-explosive aerial bombs) on Russian regions and the occupied territories of Ukraine, ASTRA has calculated.

The last such incident, according to the publication, occurred on May 20, when Russian air force aircraft dropped three bombs on the villages of Krutoy Log and Shebekino in Belgorod Region.

According to The Insider's calculations, in 2024 alone, there were at least 39 cases of accidental drops of Russian aerial munitions on the territory of the Belgorod region. At least twice FABs fell in #Belgorod

LINK

quote:

The UN continues to recognize Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy as Ukraine's president

"President Zelenskyy remains for us the head of state of Ukraine and the person the secretary-general speaks to when he needs to contact the Ukrainian leader," UN chief's spokesman Stéphane Dujarric told a daily briefing.

The five-year presidential term expired on May 20. Under Ukrainian law, presidential elections are not held during martial law, the country's CEC explained that Zelenskyy's powers will continue until the next head of state is elected.

LINK

quote:

Nine people have been detained in Poland on charges of sabotage ordered by Russian security services

"This concerns beatings, arson and attempted arson," said the country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Among those arrested are citizens of Ukraine, Belarus and Poland. According to the Polish Prime Minister, they are hired people, sometimes "from the criminal world".

LINK

quote:

Brussels officials are pushing to start formal EU accession talks with Ukraine as early as next month, — Politico.

Behind the scenes, diplomats from the EU and Kyiv are working intensively to persuade the Hungarian government to agree to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.

According to diplomats, the goal is to start official talks as early as June 25.

LINK

quote:

The UN Security Council did not adopt the Russian draft resolution on non-deployment of weapons in space

Seven of the fifteen member states of the Security Council, including the United States, voted against it. The draft resolution was supported by seven states, including Russia and China, while Switzerland abstained.

Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya accused the US of seeking to militarize space.

In April, Russia vetoed a U.S.-Japanese draft resolution on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in space - then all countries except Russia and China voted in favor of the resolution.

LINK

quote:

Bottom Line: The United States has reaffirmed its position that Ukraine may only use US supplied weapons within Ukraine. Despite a myriad of excuses, it has become clear that this is a political limitation and is unrelated to the realities of warfighting.

More info: On May 20, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the White House's stance against allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. Following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Austin emphasized that the US expects Ukraine to use these weapons only within its own borders. He hinted at different considerations for aerial dynamics but didn't elaborate further.

A variety of countries, military consultant groups and Ukraine have all noted that these restrictions have effectively created safe zones in Russia's border areas, from which Russian forces can launch attacks on Ukraine and assemble equipment and troops without interference. These policies provide Russia with a strategic advantage that they are now using to their benefit

In contrast, UK Foreign Minister David Cameron recently stated that Ukrainian forces could use UK-provided weapons to target Russian territory, and other European countries might follow suit. The lack of retaliation by Russia towards the UK raises the question of why the US and other allies have placed these restrictions on Ukraine.

On May 19, French National Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee Chairperson Jean-Louis Bourlanges argued that France should allow Ukraine to use French weapons to strike inside Russia, stating that self-defense rights do not extend to protecting the aggressor's territory. He suggested that lifting these restrictions would remove an unjustifiable limitation on Ukraine's right to defend itself.

LINK

quote:

Until Russia withdraws its troops, the United States will supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself.

This statement was made by Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood during a meeting of the Security Council convened by russia over the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine.

LINK

Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2672 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 6:44 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 21 May 2024

Although Russia has opened a new axis in the north-eastern Ukrainian oblast of Kharkiv, Russian attacks remain high in eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces continued their operational focus on the axis north-west of Avdiivka with attacks on a broad frontage either side of the E50 highway. Russian forces have likely made a series of small tactical gains over the last 72 hours, though probably at heavy cost.

The E50 highway represents the main line of communication between Russian held Donetsk and the Ukrainian held town of Pokrovsk, which remains approximately 30km from current frontline position, but is likely a Russian operational objective. Russian attacks in this direction likely seek to create a salient and split Ukrainian forces in Donetsk.

To the north of Bakhmut, in the vicinity of the town of Siversk, Ukrainian forces reported heavy clashes with Russian forces on 18 and 19 May 2024 with attacks against Ukrainian positions in Bilohorivka, Verknokamianske, and Rozdolivka. Russian gains in this area remain highly limited.
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6884 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 6:59 am to
Thank you for posting these every day, it takes effort.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2451 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:29 am to
quote:

How can you say that with a straight face?


quote:

I’d wager it definitely happened


It sounds like even you aren't claiming they definitely 100% happened

I don't know why anyone would doubt that they have IMO, other than the fact that the one thing Russia seems to be somewhat decent at is assassinations and they haven't succeeded yet.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2451 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:35 am to
quote:

likely


quote:

probably


quote:

likely


quote:

likely


Its crazy how little we really know about this war with essentially the eyes of the world (intelligence agencies) affixed to it vs how much we think we know. But people are entirely convinced of reported death tolls and things like exact manufacturing capacities years into the future.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9800 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:38 am to
Lot of info there.

Regarding this...
quote:

Defense forces managed to stabilize the situation in Vovchansk.

This was stated by the spokesman of the "Khortytsia" OSGT, Nazar Voloshyn.

Voloshyn added that the russians do not stop trying to break through the defenses of our units near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and Starytsia.


Those who cheerlead Ukraine's demise, never have seemed to gotten that terrain matters a lot. The area is not flat like the Gulf Coast. Russians have gotten bogged down crossing valleys especially when the hit the small rivers in the middle of them. They have progressed beyond these when able to advance on high ground to cut off supplies such as the did in their advances from the east.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22500 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:44 am to
Bottom Line: The United States has reaffirmed its position that Ukraine may only use US supplied weapons within Ukraine. Despite a myriad of excuses, it has become clear that this is a political limitation and is unrelated to the realities of warfighting.

More info: On May 20, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the White House's stance against allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. Following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Austin emphasized that the US expects Ukraine to use these weapons only within its own borders. He hinted at different considerations for aerial dynamics but didn't elaborate further.


As Long as.it Takes!!!!


Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9800 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:04 am to
I am still awaiting to see satellite photos post drone attack at Novorossiysk.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36432 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Its crazy how little we really know about this war with essentially the eyes of the world (intelligence agencies) affixed to it vs how much we think we know. But people are entirely convinced of reported death tolls and things like exact manufacturing capacities years into the future.


I agree, there is a lot of propaganda being pushed on us. A lot of numbers that are exaggerated.

I try and keep up, but I am not into making outlandish statements like some here are.

I don’t see any quick resolution to this war right now. Some are spouting nonsense.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36432 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:07 am to
Letting Russia have safe havens just across the border reminds me of the Vietnam War when we let the Cong and NVA take sanctuary in Laos and Cambodia. It’s stupid.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9800 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:14 am to
We do know that Gazprom stock has fallen 17% since first of May. It's now worth $1.60 per share as of yesterday. It's dropped 4% from that since yesterday.

Unlike Col MacGregor, Larry Johnson, etc... we can read topographical maps and see where Russia has progressed and where it was stopped. North and East are not flatland.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
22500 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:29 am to
quote:

Letting Russia have safe havens just across the border reminds me of the Vietnam War when we let the Cong and NVA take sanctuary in Laos and Cambodia. It’s stupid.


That is exactly what I thought when I read that. At least Nixon tried to carpet bomb them to hell.

How many Ukrainians have died as a result of Dementia Joe policies?
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3783 posts
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:30 am to
quote:


Its crazy how little we really know about this war with essentially the eyes of the world (intelligence agencies) affixed to it vs how much we think we know. But people are entirely convinced of reported death tolls and things like exact manufacturing capacities years into the future


The word choices just refer to how certain they are. Someone posted a break down a long time ago, but it's basically something like this

Likely >75% certain
Probably >90% certain

They won't ever speak in absolutes when discussing fluid situations

ETA because things are never 100% certain until they are in the past, even if we believe they are certain. For example, It's highly probable that Ukraine won't reclaim all its territory, but there is a non zero chance.
This post was edited on 5/21/24 at 9:33 am
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