re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin and US officials rejected rumors about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations amid continued indications from the Kremlin that Russia seeks nothing less than full Ukrainian and Western capitulation.

Russian demands for Ukrainian “neutrality” and a moratorium on NATO expansion have always been and continue to be one of Putin’s central justifications for his invasion of Ukraine, and any hypothetical concession on these demands would represent a major strategic and rhetorical retreat on Putin’s behalf that Putin is extremely unlikely to be considering at this time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated boilerplate Kremlin narratives that blame Ukraine for the war while also highlighting Russian forces in the Soledar direction.

The circumstances of the January 24 crash of a Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft in Belgorod Oblast remain unclear.

The European Union (EU) will provide Ukraine with an additional five billion euros to meet “urgent military needs” in the near future.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to expand Russia’s influence and subsume previous Wagner Group operations in Africa.

Russia reportedly imported $1.7 billion worth of advanced microchips and semiconductors in 2023, primarily from the West, skirting Western sanctions intended to deprive Russia of such technology.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements throughout the theater.

Elements of Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin’s alleged personal private military company (PMC) may have deployed to Ukraine.

Russian opposition media reported on January 26 that Viktor Filonov, a Russian soldier in the 234th Airborne Regiment (76th VDV Division) serving in Ukraine, adopted a Ukrainian child from occupied Donetsk Oblast.

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ETA

The peace talk items come from this

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Bloomberg reported on January 25 that two unspecified sources close to the Kremlin stated that Putin signaled to senior US officials through indirect channels that Putin is open to negotiations, including those that would provide “security arrangements” for Ukraine.[1] Bloomberg reported that an unidentified intermediary “conveyed signals” to US officials in December 2023 that Putin may be willing to drop his insistence on Ukraine’s “neutral status” and even may ultimately abandon his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession.[2] This report may refer to the same supposed backchannel communications reported by the New York Times in late December 2023 about Putin’s supposed interest in a ceasefire.[3] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov denied Bloomberg’s report on January 26, stating that reports about Russian readiness to give up its demands that Ukraine not join NATO are ”incorrect“ and “untrue.“[4] Bloomberg reported that US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson stated that US officials are not aware of these alleged overtures, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on January 19 that he does not see any indication that Putin is serious about looking for a way to end the fighting in Ukraine.[5]

Putin and Kremlin officials have increasingly stressed in recent weeks that Russia has no interest in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith, that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine remain the same, and that Putin continues to pursue his overarching objective to weaken and dismantle NATO.[6] Former White House Official Fiona Hill told Bloomberg on January 26 that Russian actors want the West to create the idea of such a channel in order to scare Ukraine and frame the US as the only other relevant actor in Ukraine besides Russia.[7] Kremlin officials routinely frame the Russian war in Ukraine as a struggle against the West in order to deny Ukraine’s agency in potential negotiations and to set conditions that seek to convince the West to ignore centering Ukraine’s interests in any negotiations.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 January 2024

Russia continues its offensive across multiple axes, in line with its strategic objective to capture the Donbas. Russian forces have seized the hamlets of Krokhmalne, Kharkiv on 21 January 2024 and Vesele, near Bakhmut on 18 January 2024; however, these are strategically insignificant. Vesele had a pre-war population of 102 and Krokhmalne, 45. This represents a continuation of Russia's minor incremental gains whilst Ukraine focuses on active defence.

The assessed main priority for Russian forces is the city of Avdiivka. The Russians are mounting a three-pronged attack to encircle the city from the south and north, and also fighting on the outskirts of the eastern quarter of Avdiivka city itself. Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by entering the city edges via service tunnels; this is a method of infiltration they have been attempting since October 2023.

Ukrainian counter-attacks are holding Russian forces from progressing further within the city. As the main supply route remains intact, and Ukrainian forces make local counter-attacks, Avdiivka is likely to remain in Ukrainian control over the coming weeks.

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It seems that ISW has been reporting that Russian forces seem to be making advances (typically small) for some time in this area. I don't recall them claiming that Ukraine has. Almost always the same language used regarding "positional engagements"...

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I noticed that too.

Russia had been taking tiny bites here and there out of Ukraine, but I haven’t seen any maps indicating that they add up to much.

Looks like Turkey is getting the new F-16 block 70 fighters they have been wanting. $23 billion for 40 brand new F-16s and they will also receive upgrades to their existing fleet of 79. They REALLY wanted F-35s but they fricked that up when they bought S-400s from Russia.

LINK

Pure coincidence this is announced after Turkey votes to let Sweden into NATO

Unfortunately I don’t think Trump can win; although I think Biden is working overtime to let Trump back in.

I suspect Biden bows out for health reasons and his replacement comes in as a white knight to save the country. At least that’s how the media will sell it. Trump will have so many legal issues and diversions that he won’t have much of a chance.

I hope I’m wrong, but remember he lost the popular vote to Hillary a very unpopular candidate. He lost by six million to Biden under the new voting laws that permitted vote harvesting. I don’t see that much had changed and although the electoral college is a different animal; Trump won’t be able to get enough of the swing states.

Giving Ukraine a slow trickle of the arms that it needs due to Biden's weakness is the problem. Russia is stuck on Soviet era WWII tactics and policies.

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I think the democrats fricking around trying every underhanded truck to get Trump out of the race comes back to bite them in the arse

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Placing those thousands of highly classified documents in Trump’s bathroom and then proving how he tried to hide them from investigators was especially heinous.

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Placing those thousands of highly classified documents in Trump’s bathroom and then proving how he tried to hide them from investigators was especially heinous.

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Now do Biden and Clinton's sock drawer.