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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/4/24 at 7:28 am to tigeraddict
Posted on 1/4/24 at 7:28 am to tigeraddict
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 January 2024
In November 2022, President Putin approved the establishment of the Moscow Government Security Force (MGSF), a new organisation to guard the capital's infrastructure. From July 2023, the MGSF has assumed a more paramilitary character, including receiving a remit to use firearms. It has likely attracted several thousand recruits out of a planned strength of 15,000.
The MGSF represents another example in Russia's long tradition of 'paramilitarisation': the proliferation of armed organisations outside of the regular military. However, MGSF has highly likely been strengthened partially in response to concerns about the preparedness of Moscow's local security forces in the face of advancing, mutinous Wagner Group troops in June 2023.
The project also provides an opportunity for Muscovites to volunteer for 'patriotic' war time duties - while avoiding front line service in Ukraine. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin has been successful in limiting the direct impact of the conflict on the capital's relatively well-off population. The majority of Russian casualties in Ukraine have come from poorer, provincial regions.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 January 2024
In November 2022, President Putin approved the establishment of the Moscow Government Security Force (MGSF), a new organisation to guard the capital's infrastructure. From July 2023, the MGSF has assumed a more paramilitary character, including receiving a remit to use firearms. It has likely attracted several thousand recruits out of a planned strength of 15,000.
The MGSF represents another example in Russia's long tradition of 'paramilitarisation': the proliferation of armed organisations outside of the regular military. However, MGSF has highly likely been strengthened partially in response to concerns about the preparedness of Moscow's local security forces in the face of advancing, mutinous Wagner Group troops in June 2023.
The project also provides an opportunity for Muscovites to volunteer for 'patriotic' war time duties - while avoiding front line service in Ukraine. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin has been successful in limiting the direct impact of the conflict on the capital's relatively well-off population. The majority of Russian casualties in Ukraine have come from poorer, provincial regions.
1
Posted on 1/4/24 at 7:41 am to cypher
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence posts video of Russian Su-34 burning – video
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Thursday, 4 January 2024, 13:29
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has officially announced that a Su-34 tactical fighter bomber burned out at Shagol airfield in the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on the night of 4 January 2024.
Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) on Telegram
"The reasons for the plane catching fire are being established," the report said.
A video released on 4 January appears to show the plane catching fire.
Youtube of saboteur at work
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Thursday, 4 January 2024, 13:29
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has officially announced that a Su-34 tactical fighter bomber burned out at Shagol airfield in the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on the night of 4 January 2024.
Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) on Telegram
"The reasons for the plane catching fire are being established," the report said.
A video released on 4 January appears to show the plane catching fire.
Youtube of saboteur at work
This post was edited on 1/4/24 at 7:46 am
Posted on 1/4/24 at 8:00 am to StormyMcMan
Let’s get real here. Russia, Ukraine and Western governments have been negotiating fir ten years . Recently China and African nations have gotten involved.
Let’s drop the charade that if only __________ (fill in the blank) would not have stopped an agreement we would have peace. Russia invaded almost ten years ago, and they broke agreements before that and after that.
It’s obvious Russia wants Ukraine back. They don’t want Ukraine joining NATO because that prevents them from reaching their main goals.
Let’s drop the charade that if only __________ (fill in the blank) would not have stopped an agreement we would have peace. Russia invaded almost ten years ago, and they broke agreements before that and after that.
It’s obvious Russia wants Ukraine back. They don’t want Ukraine joining NATO because that prevents them from reaching their main goals.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 8:17 am to tigeraddict
quote:
that most likely is going to American companies to build the rockets…..
Correct. The $5.6 billion contract is with Raytheon, even though Raytheon is going to make these rockets in Germany in partnership with MBDA Germany. This is something that even few of Ukraine's supporters understand: even much of European aid to Ukraine benefits US manufacturers and supports the US economy.
And what's the long-term impact of setting up a Patriot missile production line in Europe? It just means that more NATO countries will buy Patriot systems.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 8:20 am to cypher
quote:
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has officially announced that a Su-34 tactical fighter bomber burned out at Shagol airfield in the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on the night of 4 January 2024
To be fair, the Russian Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which has a surprising record for accuracy and honesty for a Russian channel, is saying that the damage was minor.
That nevertheless confirms the sabotage attack.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 9:29 am to GOP_Tiger
Missile attack on Crimea is being reported. Explosions were heard in Yevpatoriya and Sevastopol areas.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 9:31 am to StormyMcMan
quote:Of course they can occur.
So is your stance that negotiations can or cannot occur "subsequent to an invasion which occurred due to failed diplomacy"
But the settlement terms during initial stages of invasion will be quite different.
Why?
Because when one side determines, as did Russia, that it can and will accomplish by force what it could not by diplomacy, its zest for compromise dissolves. Desire to continue pursuit of negotiation disintegrates d/t to the belief successful force will completely negate its need.
That belief or confidence shifts founds mentality. Invasions are never ever undertaken with an expectation of failure. Success beyond any diplomatically negotiable endpoint is the universal expectation.
Russia miscalculated in such expectations, but it did not appreciate the degree of its miscalculation for several weeks. Hence its commitment to war, and predictable ditching of diplomacy early on.
There possibly were actions and/or negotiations which would have ended the conflict in the first weeks. However, given Russian military expectations of total Ukrainian capitulation, terms of settlement at that point would have been extremely unfavorable for Ukraine.
So once invasion was underway, from its outset until Russian setbacks at Kyiv, acceptable negotiations were pragmatically impossible for Ukraine. They weren't happening. Assumptions to the contrary are naive at best.
Once the paradigm shifted though, following catastrophic Russian defeats and embarrassment at Kyiv, a reapproach to realistic negotiations was possible.
It was undertaken, but got scuttled in April 2022.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 10:35 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Once the paradigm shifted though, following catastrophic Russian defeats and embarrassment at Kyiv, a reapproach to realistic negotiations was possible.
It was undertaken, but got scuttled in April 2022.
So after Russia got its arse kicked in the Kiev theater, Ukraine should have capitulated to Russian demands that Ukraine pledge to never join NATO and Russia gets to keep Kherson, Kharkiv and The Donbas?
You aren’t making sense. Ukraine had stunned the Russian bear and that was way before Western aid in a significant amount had reached Ukraine. There was no reason fir Ukraine to surrender.
Btw, Ukraine went in to recapture Kherson City and Kharkiv. It want to the late Summer did things get stalemated.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 10:48 am to doubleb
quote:Willingness to explore that possibility is why they sat with the Russians in March-April 2022 peace talks ... ultimately they were cajoled to wait several more years and several hundred thousand additional more lives to do it. Sucks, but it is what it is.
So after Russia got its arse kicked in the Kiev theater, Ukraine should have capitulated to Russian demands that Ukraine pledge to never join NATO and Russia gets to keep Kherson, Kharkiv and The Donbas?
If the latter makes better sense to you, so be it.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 11:04 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Willingness to explore that possibility is why they sat with the Russians in March-April 2022 peace talks ... ultimately they were cajoled to wait several more years and several hundred thousand additional more lives to do it. Sucks, but it is what it is.
You are just ignoring the facts of the matter.
Negotiations began way before the invasion and continued after the invasion.
Initially Russia had certain advantages. They could threaten war and use that as leverage to gain concessions. Apparently they didn’t get Ukraine to concede enough, or it was all a ruse because Russia invaded.
Once they invaded, that leverage was lost.
But negotiations continued. Russia looked good initially, and you know there was no chance of peace until the stunning Ukrainian reversals.
Still they negotiated. I suspect Russia was trying to buy time and stall any Western aid to Ukraine, but as we saw the West responded rapidly and surprised the Russians. But the long and short is there was no peace deal. There was no way Ukraine who was coming off a major win was going to capitulate to Russian demands and there was no way Putin was going to throw in the towel and give up his prize.
Use some logic man.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 12:22 pm to doubleb
quote:Oh man.
You are just ignoring the facts of the matter.
No. Sorry. I'm neither ignoring facts, nor ignoring reality, nor am I justifying the invasion or the awful situation it leaves Ukraine in. I'm simply stating things as they are.
When folks here assert the NATO situation was noncausative, it simply is not true. When folks here say the invasion was unavoidable or partial provisional offerings by Ukraine early in the invasion were somehow dispositive, those are ridiculous claims. When folks here believe this horror will end with Ukraine reacquiring its 2013 or even its 2021 borders and land, they are engaging fantasy.
I don't like it. I wish it were different. It sucks for Ukraine. But at some point it is important to see things for what they are, not for what we wish they could be.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 12:29 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I don't like it. I wish it were different. It sucks for Ukraine. But at some point it is important to see things for what they are, not for what we wish they could be.
That’s what we are trying to tell you.
;-)
Posted on 1/4/24 at 12:37 pm to doubleb
quote:No.
That’s what we are trying to tell you.
"You are trying to tell me" that the US, UK and NATO bear no responsibility in this mess, a mess which was avoidable. I am trying to tell you that ignoring facts will lead to the same mistakes being made in the future.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 12:40 pm to doubleb
quote:
White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby releases US intelligence that Russia has fired North Korean ballistic missiles at Ukraine!
quote:
"We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure," Kirby said
Putin and Kim are quite comfortable "escalating" this conflict.
If there's anything that should change the calculus about ATACMS and Taurus, this would be it.
EDIT: I don't know if it was really possible to make Biden look more pathetically weak than he already did, but if so, this did it.
This post was edited on 1/4/24 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 1/4/24 at 12:52 pm to StormyMcMan
WSJ: Russia Moves Forward With Plans to Buy Iranian Ballistic Missiles
I feel like this story isn't getting the kind of traction it should.
I'm told Russia isn't running out of missiles and that they have endless supplies of equipment... but they're begging/buying missiles, drones, ammo, etc.
Russia looks like a tired, exhausted force. Their offensives have culminated across all fronts.
quote:
Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.
I feel like this story isn't getting the kind of traction it should.
I'm told Russia isn't running out of missiles and that they have endless supplies of equipment... but they're begging/buying missiles, drones, ammo, etc.
Russia looks like a tired, exhausted force. Their offensives have culminated across all fronts.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 1:22 pm to RuLSU
One estimate is that they are producing more than 100 long range missiles per month.
Guardian - Renewed Russian strikes offer grim portent for Ukraine in 2024
Guardian - Renewed Russian strikes offer grim portent for Ukraine in 2024
Posted on 1/4/24 at 1:47 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No. "You are trying to tell me" that the US, UK and NATO bear no responsibility in this mess, a mess which was avoidable. I am trying to tell you that ignoring facts will lead to the same mistakes being made in the future.
You are trying to minimize the responsibility Putin has and pump up the level of responsibility the West has.
The West could not prevent Russia from trying to take over Ukraine by whatever method; while Putin had full control of the situation.
No one made him conquer Crimea. No one made him go into the Donbas. But he wanted to be the conquering hero.
Your idea that the West was going to be like a Neville Chamberlain and make Ukraine concede was going to prevent Russia from taking full control of Ukraine is not logical. If we convinced Zekensky to agree to terms Russia would take full advantage and when they felt the time was right complete their special mission. After all who was going to stop him, a neutered Ukraine?
Posted on 1/4/24 at 1:54 pm to GOP_Tiger
NK couldn’t be planning to attack SK, they are giving up too many resources to Russia.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 3:02 pm to cypher
quote:
One estimate is that they are producing more than 100 long range missiles per month.
If their domestic production was sufficient, why buy from North Korea / Iran?
100 missiles per month = 1,200 per year.
Ukraine says Russia has fired at least 7,400 missiles since the start of the war in 2022. That's 3,700 per year, meaning Russia can only produce half of what they've been shooting since 2022.
Posted on 1/4/24 at 3:26 pm to RuLSU
quote:
If their domestic production was sufficient, why buy from North Korea / Iran?
Who said it was sufficient?
They are buying more to deplete Ukrainian air defense.
100 per month is more than double their production prior to the war.
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