re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If Trump does that he will be bucking the congressional GOP

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They are going to hold out and hope for Trump to be president, then they know that he will withdraw all support for Ukraine and it’s over

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They just ignore the part where Trump says that he will increase aid to Ukraine if Putin doesn’t enter into peace talks with realistic expectations.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 11 December 2023

Over the last week, the Donetsk Oblast town of Avdiivka has continued to be the scene of the most intense combat on the front. As reflected in official Ukrainian public-release data, on some days approaching 40 per cent of all combat engagements have likely taken place in this small sector.

The Russian offensives have continued to be characterised by largely dismounted infantry assaults, often by Shtorm-Z penal units.

Ukrainian units have likely conducted successful local counterattacks, denying Russian forces full control of the village of Stepove. It is here that Russia is attempting one part of a pincer movement to envelop Avdiivka and its heavily defended industrial
zone.

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Yes and the war is over despite Russia sustaining 11,000 casualties in Adviika in November.

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And the Ukrainian numbers?

Washington Post

The Air Force finished its investigation into the Teixeira leaks back in August, but with the Post doing a new story, the Air Force decided to release the results in a report to Congress.

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In a report delivered to Congress on Monday, the Air Force blamed Airman 1st Class Jack D. Teixeira’s superiors for failing to restrict his access to classified systems and facilities and to alert appropriate authorities during the time that he was alleged to have been illegally sharing government secrets.

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The Air Force inspector general, which completed its investigation in August, found that while Teixeira is believed to have worked alone to smuggle classified documents from his workplace at Otis Air National Guard Base in Massachusetts, and post photographs of them online, other members in his unit “had information about as many as four separate instances of his questionable activity.”

“After interviewing higher levels of the supervisory chain, it appears knowledge of these security incidents was not fully disclosed above the squadron level,” said an eight-page summary of the investigation, carried out by the Air Force inspector general’s office. It added that “three individuals in the unit who understood their duty to report specific information regarding A1C Teixeira’s intelligence-seeking and insider threat indicators to security officials, intentionally failed to do so.” Some feared that security officials might “overreact,” the summary added.

The lack of action, investigators found, allowed Teixeira to share hundreds of classified pages that he posted on several online servers on the gaming chat platform Discord. It marked one of the Pentagon’s most embarrassing leaks in years, prompting outcry from allies and partners, frustration from senior defense officials, and felony charges for Teixeira, who was arrested in an FBI raid at his family’s home in Dighton, Mass., in April.

Air Force officials said in a statement that the 15 who were disciplined range in rank from staff sergeant to colonel. Air National Guard leaders began the disciplinary process Sept. 7, removing some personnel from their positions and filing administrative action known as nonjudicial punishment against others, the service said.

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Edit: The Post's other story on Teixeira is really damning to the Air Force's security clearance policies. Incredible that Teixeira was given a security clearance after this kind of behavior in high school. This is stuff we kinda knew about before, but not in this level of detail.

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Meanwhile thousands continue to die. Ukraine knows why their people are dying, but do Russians really know why theirs are? I don’t think so.

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Russian troops were told that they were going out to do a field "exercise" at the beginning. Probably good to keep some secretive impressions, but that can't have been good for morale when the shooting started.

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Russian economy is struggling.

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I'm curious what you're seeing in this regard as the only "bad" sign I've seen is 7.5% inflation

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The Russian ruble is back. After soaring to the year-to-date high of 102.01, the USD/RUB exchange rate has dropped to 90.37 while the GBP/RUB has fallen from 129.21 to 112.7. Similarly, the EUR/RUB exchange rate has retreated from 111.36 to 98.18.

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This was mainly due to an increased interest rate and currency control on its companies to buy rubles with their dollars

But this part was interesting

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The Russian ruble and stocks have bounced back in the past few months. For example, the MOEX index, which tracks the biggest companies in Russia, surged to a high of RUB 212.36, the highest point on record. It has risen by over 182% from the lowest point this year.


The performance of the Russian ruble and the MOEX index is a reflection that the economy is doing modestly well in the new normal of increased Western sanctions. The unemployment rate has dropped to 3% while retail spending has jumped in the past few months.

Recent economic data shows that the country’s economy will do well this year. In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the economy will grow by 2.2% this year, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%.

The main reason for this growth is that Russia is investing heavily in its defense capability, with most plants working round the clock to support the fighters in Ukraine.

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LINK

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Russia will raise interest rates to 16% on Friday, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with inflation pressure exacerbated by labour shortages and lending growth forcing the central bank to extend its monetary tightening cycle to one last hike.

The expected 100 basis point increase at the Bank of Russia's final meeting of the year should mark the end of a tightening spree that began in July, when rates were as low as 7.5%.

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Annual inflation stood at 7.48% last month, well above the bank's 4% target and almost exceeding its 7-7.5% forecast range for 2023.

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LINK

ETA: although it does seem like the economy will implode slightly when the fighting does stop which would be a reason to not want peace

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They'd need to rewrite their constitution

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Or they can just switch their Constitution for a different version as they did in 2014.

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The people won't vote for it.

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The people are seeing their loved ones massacred on the eastern front. Peace is appealing.

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But I don't think Russia is going to break Ukraine

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On that, you and I agree.