re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

And there are some devoted to this thread claiming to have gone in country to stop the Russian advances.

Talk about a pointless life.

ISW Update

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Ongoing localized Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka likely demonstrate the ability of Russian forces to learn and apply tactical battlefield lessons in Ukraine. Russian forces launched localized attacks towards Avdiivka after intensive artillery preparation of the battlefield in the early hours of October 10, and geolocated footage from October 10 and 11 confirms that Russian troops advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a grouping of up to three Russian battalions with tank and armored vehicle support intensified offensive operations near Avdiivka.[2] Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andrii Kovavlev clarified that these battalions are part of three motorized rifle brigades of the Southern Military District’s 8th Combined Arms Army.[3]

Russian sources celebrated Russian advances in this area and outlined several adaptations that suggest that Russian forces are applying lessons learned from operations in southern Ukraine to other sectors of the front.[4] A Russian artillery battalion commander who is reportedly fighting in the area claimed that Russian forces are paying significant attention to counterbattery combat.[5] Another source who also claimed to be fighting in the area reported that Russian forces are using electronic warfare (EW) systems, conducting sound artillery preparation of the battlefield, and are demonstrating “clear interaction” between command headquarters, assault groups, aerial reconnaissance, and artillery elements.[6] The milblogger noted that Russian forces are not employing human wave-style “meat” assaults, and several Russian sources amplified footage of Russian armored vehicles leading a breakthrough along roadways towards Ukrainian positions, followed by infantry columns.[7]

The suggestion that Russian forces are effectively employing EW, counterbattery, artillery preparation, aerial reconnaissance, and inter/intra-unit communication is noteworthy, as Russian sources previously emphasized these tactical adaptations as the strengths of Russia’s defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine, particularly in June and July.[8] Furthermore, the majority of Russian forces currently fighting in the Avdiivka area are likely elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps, which the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army predominantly controls

These tactical-level adaptations and successes, however, are unlikely to translate into wider operational and strategic gains for Russian forces. Geolocated footage shows that Russian gains around Avdiivka are concentrated to the southwest of Avdiivka, and Russian forces have not completed an operational encirclement of the settlement and will likely struggle to do so if that is their intent. Avdiivka is also a notoriously well-fortified and defended Ukrainian stronghold, which will likely complicate Russian forces’ ability to closely approach or fully capture the settlement. Russian forces additionally already control segments of the critical N20 Donetsk City-Kostyantynivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk highway and other routes that run near Avdiivka, so the hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new routes of advance to the rest of Donetsk Oblast. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces likely intend attacks in the Avdiivka area to fix Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis.[11]

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were successful east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka near Bakhmut.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff and Tavriisk Group Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi reported that Ukrainian forces improved their tactical positions west of Robotyne.[13]

A large number of NATO member states recently announced aid packages to Ukraine against the backdrop of the 16th Ukraine Defense Group Contact Group meeting in Brussels, Belgium on October 11. Military and government officials from almost 50 countries met in Brussels, Belgium on October 11 for the beginning of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, and multiple NATO states pledged aid and support to Ukraine

Russia’s Federation Council Defense and Security Committee voted to replace Senator Viktor Bondarev with Senator Vladimir Bulavin as Federation Council Defense and Security Committee Head on October 10. Russian Senator Vyacheslav Timchenko claimed on October 10 that Bondarev is resigning as part of the chairperson’s standard rotation and will remain the first deputy chairman of the Defense and Security Committee.[17] Timchenko claimed that he expects the Federation Council to approve Bulavin’s new appointment.

Russian military command continues to celebrate the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) for its service in Ukraine, despite claims that the brigade was defeated and reportedly transferred to the Kherson direction. Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Ildar Akhmerov presented awards to servicemen of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade on October 11 for repelling Ukrainian attacks in an unspecified sector of the front a week after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu partially attributed the successful Russian defensive operations around Robotyne to the brigade.[21] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 22 that Ukrainian forces “completely defeated“ the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and that Russian command withdrew the brigade from western Zaporizhia Oblast.[22] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 5 that elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were transferred to the Kherson direction, indicating that the brigade may have been reconstituted or is in the process of reconstituting

Armenia continues to ostensibly distance itself from Russia after a decades-long security relationship. Armenian forces are not participating in the week-long Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) “Indestructible Brotherhood-2023” exercises in Kyrgyzstan that started on October 6.[25] The Kyrgyz Presidential administration reported on October 10 that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov that he is unable to attend the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on October 13.[26] Pashinyan also stated on October 11 that Russian peacekeepers should return to Russia instead of Russian bases in Armenia if they leave Nagorno-Karabakh

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southern boarder

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Kill of your adversary

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eat ze bugs

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failing education

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Maybe you have a point here

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Putin signed a decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by individual exporters on the domestic market.

The Kremlin hopes that such a step will help stabilize the ruble. The decree concerns 43 companies related to various branches of industry and agriculture.

It is not known what percentage of foreign currency earnings exporters will have to sell and which companies will be forced to do so. The decree itself has not been published yet, but it is known that it will be introduced for a period of six months.

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LINK

Not exactly the way it is. Israel needs some 155mm shells and a few missiles for its systems MAYBE.

He actually said; “We are coming NEARER to the end of the rope.”

You can read that any way you want to.

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Rybar is a sunshine pumper for the Russian military.

Confirmed gains are minimal, at best, according to all of the mapping sources. That doesn't mean Russia won't break through / can't break through, just that there aren't confirmed breakthroughs yet.

This is a good time to remind everyone of the glorious Russian offensive towards Kupyansk that went nowhere.

This increasingly looks like a deadly but frozen conflict.

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In fairness to Rybar a lot of these Russian "milbloggers" have been really accurate and honest throughout the war. I don't speak Russian so I have to find it on twitter/x but people who read their telegram channels say they're generally up front about the reality of what's going on and have even brought to light some high casualty disasters that otherwise would have been covered up (like the 100+ men KIA/WIA when their commander made them gather in formation for a speech well within Ukr rocket range).

Completely agree with you about the war overall. A stalemate that is killing thousands of men on both sides, maiming thousands more, all for gains of a few hundred yards at a time here and there. Sad and depressing.

I don't think either side has the offensive ability to take any new territory, or at least in any significant amount.

I feel bad for the average soldier on both sides. At this point on both sides they're mainly draftees and according to articles I've read on the Russian and Ukrainian sides they're all deemed to be in service until the war ends. A Russian official told a bunch of wives/mothers of the mobilized they were serving until the "conclusion of the SMO" and Ukrainians are signed up for the duration as well with just 10 days of leave per year. Horrible.

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He actually said; “We are coming NEARER to the end of the rope.”

You can read that any way you want to.

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Kirby is talking about the current funding.

It’s like the Pink Floyd song, Time.

“And you run and you run to catch up with the Sun, but it’s sinking racing around to come up behind you again. The Sun is the same in a relative way, but you are older. Shorter of breath, and one day closer to death.”

The end is getting nearer for everything.

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They were very accurate until Girkin got snatched up by the FSB.

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Even before then they switched the pro Putin propaganda sign on.