re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Worst Russian Land Battle Defeat in Nine Months – Kremlin forces Hit a Wall at Avdiivka

Dozens of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers drove forward into open ground laced with minefields. It turns out the Ukrainians were ready.

by Stefan Korshak | October 13, 2023, 4:12 pm

Ukrainian troops fighting from thick fortifications in the eastern sector have used massive artillery strikes backed by anti-tank missiles and drone swarms to hand the Russian army its worst battlefield defeat in nine months, sources said on Friday.

Large-scale tank and armored infantry attacks under the command of Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army launched between 100-200 armored vehicles in a two-pronged attack starting Monday with the objective of encircling Ukrainian forces dug in around the town Avdiivka, a coal-mining community near the northern suburbs of the Russia-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk.

Battles were still ongoing on Friday afternoon but all Russian assaults thus far in four days of battles had been turned back. The Russian military in fighting around Avdiivka likely suffered its worst combat losses since mid-February, and by some measures suffered one of Moscow’s worst battlefield defeats of the war thus far, official sources and independent information platforms and individual battle accounts widely agreed.

The Kyiv Post

ISW Update

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Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout the Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast area on October 13 reportedly faced setbacks around the city. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocated footage published on October 12 and 13 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).

The Russian military command appears to be restricting discussion of the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the Russian information space, likely in an attempt to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives that emerge in the Russian information space around these operations. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on October 12 that the Russian military command was “dispensing information [about Russian offensive operations] in doses,” but then claimed on October 13 that the Russian military command was ”minimizing the release of information into the public domain” as the Russian military does not want “media hype” surrounding operations near Avdiivka

The Kremlin is likely attempting to frame Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other localized efforts as Russian forces seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine. Russian UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya claimed on October 13 that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are “formally over” because Russian forces have switched to “active combat operations along almost the entire frontline."

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and the Bakhmut direction.[11] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unsuccessful attacks along the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line (7-13km southwest of Bakhmut) and along the Robotyne-Verbove line (10km south to 18km southeast of Orikhiv)

Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities with drone and missile strikes, as well as localized cross-border raids. Spokesperson of the United Press Center of the Northern Direction Ukrainian Defense Forces, Colonel Yurii Povh, reported on October 12 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to cross into Sumy Oblast and stated that these Russian forces likely aimed to reach a Ukrainian critical infrastructure facility.[13] Povh stated that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have unsuccessfully attempted to cross the international border between Russia and Ukraine 10 times in the past two months.

Russian authorities arrested four lawyers who represent prominent opposition figures on extremism charges on October 13, likely to set conditions for the upcoming 2024 Russian presidential elections. Russian authorities arrested three of imprisoned Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s lawyers – Vadim Kobzev, Igor Sergunin, and Alexei Liptser – for allegedly participating in an extremist community.[18] Russian authorities also charged and fined Alexei Ladin, who represents many Crimean Tatars and Ukrainian citizens accused of terrorism, espionage, and participating in banned groups, for allegedly discrediting the Russian military and distributing extremist symbols.[19] Lawyer Alexander Molokhov, who represents imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin, called on the Russian Federal Chamber of Lawyers to conduct a one-day strike in solidarity with Kobzev, Sergunin, and Liptser and criticized the Russian government for prosecuting these lawyers for “connecting Navalny with the outside world.”

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Key Takeaways:

Ongoing Russian offensive operations throughout the Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast area on October 13 reportedly faced setbacks around the city.

The Russian military command appears to be restricting discussion of the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the Russian information space, likely in an attempt to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives that emerge in the Russian information space around these operations.

The Kremlin is likely attempting to frame Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other localized efforts as Russian forces seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 13.

Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities with drone and missile strikes, as well as localized cross-border raids.

Russian authorities arrested four lawyers who represent prominent opposition figures on extremism charges on October 13, likely to set conditions for the upcoming 2024 Russian presidential elections.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors of the front.

A Ukrainian military intelligence official reported that Russian forces are struggling to equip newly-formed military formations.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly targeted Russian military assets in rear areas in southern Ukraine on October 12 and 13.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated multiple standard Kremlin narratives against the West at a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Member States on October 13. Putin repeated the false narrative that the West and Ukraine initiated the conflict in Ukraine in 2014.[78] Putin also claimed that the West’s policies caused the Israel-Hamas war and offered Russia as a mediator in the conflict. Putin did not present any new or noteworthy narratives during his speech.

Putin attempted to allay claims that the Russian-Armenian relationship is deteriorating. Putin claimed that he has “constantly” been in contact with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and that Armenia is not leaving the CIS.[79] Putin also claimed that the Armenian and Russian governments continue to work together and that he invited Pashinyan to Russia. ISW previously reported that Armenia has been ostensibly distancing itself from Russia after a decades-long security relationship.[80]

Putin seemingly clarified the Kremlin’s stance on the return to Russia of Russian citizens who left the country after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, possibly in response to recent contradictory statements from Russian government officials about the matter.[81] Putin claimed that Russians who wish to return have the right to choose where they live, but that the “overwhelming majority of [Russian] citizens” may treat returnees who “behaved immorally towards Russia” differently upon their return, implying returning citizens will not face legal action but threatening them with pariah status

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LINK



North Korea provided Russia with weapons, White House says

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North Korea has delivered weapons to Russia for its fight in Ukraine, and Moscow may already have responded in kind, U.S. officials said Friday.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that as many as 1,000 containers with “equipment and munitions” had been provided “in recent weeks.” The White House released overhead imagery showing what it said were approximately 300 containers assembled in Najin, North Korea, and delivered by sea and rail to an ammunition depot in southwestern Russia near Tikhoretsk, about 180 miles from the Ukrainian border.

In exchange, Kirby said, “we have already observed Russian ships offloading containers” that “may constitute an initial delivery of weapons from Russia” to North Korea.

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EDIT: I will be curious to see if this ends up getting South Korea and/or Japan to openly give lethal military aid to Ukraine. To this point, they have only given non-lethal aid.

This seems like a big deal:

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North Korea provided Russia with weapons, White House says

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Wow so Errerwhere supports North Korea too? Who’s next, Hamas?

Russia finally did something worthwhile, they arrested four lawyers!

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Are the Russians hoarding shells, or are they indeed running out? That’s the question.

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That trend coupled with turning to North Korea for arms would make me think they don’t have the stockpile/production to maintain their earlier spend rates.

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The bigger question is how many tubes remain for Russia. We know that they brought in the T64s to Kherson to use as artillery, and since then the old T55s for the same task.

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Good point.

Hoarding tubes perhaps?

I

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Is this not something they can make domestically? The tubes I mean

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They can make tubes and shells domestically. However, the rate of use (2000+ rounds and tube “should” be swapped out)and attrition on the battle filled and Russia can’t keep up. Same for shells. Their military doctrine is to rely heavily on artillery for both offense and defense. Their shell burn rate at the beginning of the war is an example. But they can’t keep up with burn rate vs production and have gotten shells from Iran and now NK

Western shell production is ramping up much faster than Russia/NK/Iran. Long term (if western support holds) the west shell production with blow away Russia’s

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Now, he's tweeting full time for Team Hamas. It's just absolutely unreal to me that "MAGA Communism" is a thing, and there's a real section of MAGA rooting for Hamas.

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No just no dude. The support for Hamas almost solely from the far left. It’s not even debatable.