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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:00 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:00 pm to Darth_Vader
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and in the Bakhmut area on September 29. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked north of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and near Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv) on September 28 and 29.[1] Russian milbloggers claimed on September 29 that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance east of the railway line south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut) and reported heavy fighting across the Klishchiivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line.[2]
The Russian government announced details about the semi-annual conscription cycle set to begin on October 1 in most of Russia, reportedly including the illegally annexed territories in Ukraine. Russian Deputy Chief of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky stated on September 29 that the semi-annual conscription cycle will begin on October 1, except in some regions of Russia’s Far North where conscription will begin on November 1 due to poor weather.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 29 stating that the Russian military will conscript 130,000 personnel from October to December 2023, as compared to 147,000 personnel conscripted in the spring conscription cycle according to Tsimlyansky.[4] Tsimlyansky claimed that Russia will not send conscripts to the war in Ukraine and that conscripts will serve for 12 months.[5] Tsimlyansky stated that the fall conscription cycle will take place “in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation,” including in occupied territories in Ukraine according to multiple Russian state media outlets.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and former Wagner Group commander and current Ministry of Defense (MoD) employee Andrey Troshev on September 29 signaling that Putin will likely back the MoD in its apparent competing effort with the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to recruit current and former Wagner personnel. Putin stated that at his last meeting with Troshev (call sign “Sedoy”) the two discussed that Troshev would be involved in the formation of volunteer detachments that perform combat missions primarily in Ukraine.[8] Wagner-affiliated sources claimed that Troshev left Wagner following Wagner’s June 24 rebellion to work for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-affiliated Redut private military company (PMC), and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged on September 29 that Troshev works for the MoD.
There are increasing reports that Wagner personnel are operating alongside Rosgvardia and that the State Duma will consider a proposed bill that will allow Rosgvardia to form volunteer formations.[14] Current Wagner Commander Anton Yelizarov (call sign “Lotos”) is reportedly negotiating with Rosgvardia for current Wagner personnel to join volunteer formations under Rosgvardia on terms more favorable to Wagner
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is likely supporting amendments to a Russian State Duma bill that would expand its tools of digital authoritarianism to surveil users of Russian internet, banking, and telecom companies. Russian outlet Kommersant reported on September 29 that the bill would allow Russian law enforcement agencies to remotely access, edit, and delete information in Russian private businesses’ databases.[18] The Russian State Duma is reportedly proposing these amendments to protect the personal data of Russian judges, FSB employees, and police from data leaks of personal information.[19] Kommersant reported that the Russian Big Data Association – which includes Russian internet giant Yandex, Russian telecommunications companies, and banks – opposed the amendments and claimed that such access could lead to new data leaks.
The apparent self-censorship in the wider Russian information space has likely opened the door for some fringe elements to directly criticize and speculate about senior Russian military commanders without pushback. A fringe Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces recently claimed that Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov removed VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky as deputy commander in Ukraine, and no Russian sources have offered claims consistent with this one until recently.
The response of the wider Russian information space to fringe claims about Teplinsky’s role in the war in Ukraine may portend an inflection point in discussions about the Russian military command. A Russian insider source who publishes monthly lists purportedly of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called “war cabinet” notably excluded Teplinsky from their September list.
A Russian insider source speculated about Gerasimov’s intent for Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine, possibly in an attempt to renew animosity toward Gerasimov. A Russian insider source claimed on September 4 that Gerasimov wants to conserve Russian forces for the defense of Melitopol and Berdyansk, possibly at the expense of defending Tokmak.
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and in the Bakhmut area on September 29.
The Russian government announced details about the semi-annual conscription cycle set to begin on October 1 in most of Russia, reportedly including the illegally annexed territories in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and former Wagner Group commander and current Ministry of Defense (MoD) employee Andrey Troshev on September 29 signaling that Putin will likely back the MoD in its apparent competing effort with the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to recruit current and former Wagner personnel.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is likely supporting amendments to a Russian State Duma bill that would expand its tools of digital authoritarianism to surveil users of Russian internet, banking, and telecom companies.
The apparent self-censorship in the wider Russian information space has likely opened the door for some fringe elements to directly criticize and speculate about senior Russian military commanders without pushback.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 29.
Russia may be continuing attempts to circumvent sanctions through military-technical cooperation with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries.
Russia is relaxing passport controls on Ukrainian citizens leaving and entering Russia likely in an attempt to simplify the movement of Ukrainian citizens to Russia.
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Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:05 pm to Tantal
quote:
Their problem is that they're sitting on a mountain of natural resources
There really wasn't a threat at all, but Russian's are oftne paranoid about such things. They could bank a lot of wealth based on their resources and their gateway to Asia, but they screwed that pouch.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:18 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
There really wasn't a threat at all
There wasn't a threat YET, but they'll lack the demographics in the future, so they had to do it now. Their birth rate dropped precipitously at the end of the Cold War. They won't have enough 18-30 year olds to fight wars against major powers in the future. Russia will be invaded invaded eventually. Germany has a tendency get weird when their backs are against the wall and Russia definitely won't have the manpower, supplies, or logistics to keep China out of their eastern fringe and the Japanese out of Sakhalin Island. All they have are two rail lines going from European Russia to their far east. It may not happen in my lifetime, but as Russia's population dwindles, their neighbors are going to make their moves.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:22 pm to Tantal
quote:
It may not happen in my lifetime, but as Russia's population dwindles, their neighbors are going to make their moves
So why expand your borders with s dwindling population? Why take more territory than you can control.
Why not cultivate allies with your neighbors instead of intimidating them and invading them?
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:33 pm to doubleb
quote:
So why expand your borders with s dwindling population? Why take more territory than you can control.
Because there are natural geographical barriers (deserts, mountains, seas, etc.) to Russia, but there are gaps in them. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union controlled every gap (Baltic Sea, Polish Gap, Bessarabian Gap, Black Sea, the coastal strips of the Caucasus, Central Asian Corridor, and the Dzungarian Gate). Their goal is to get static troops stationed in those gaps again to fend off potential invasions. This is why Russia still has forces in Transnistria, Georgia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. They're plugging gaps.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:34 pm to Tantal
Russia is going nowhere and will remain our main geopolitical adversary regardless of how this turns out and this war has proven standing armies with expensive equipment are as useful the age of the drone as teams of spearmen.
Russia will emerge from this as one of the biggest players in modern drone warfare.
They simply have the will and the oil cash.
Russia will emerge from this as one of the biggest players in modern drone warfare.
They simply have the will and the oil cash.
This post was edited on 9/29/23 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:40 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
Russia is going nowhere and will remain our main geopolitical adversary
I disagree. Ethnic Russians are aging into irrelevance, if not near-extinction. The only portion of their population that's growing are the Turkic Muslims in the far south. When push comes to shove, those people are going to align with Ankara over Moscow. The Chechens already kicked them out once, but in typical Russian fashion, they came back and bribed one of the factions with weapons, money, and intel to defeat their internal rivals. That's how Chechnya got the Kadyrovs.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:57 pm to Tantal
quote:
There wasn't a threat YET, but they'll lack the demographics in the future, so they had to do it now.
Same goes for much of Europe, so no real threat from the west. China and Japan also have demographic implosion.
Your argument has fallen off of the cliff. Pure and simple, Paranoia will destroya the Russian way
Posted on 9/29/23 at 9:59 pm to doubleb
They are trying to get to strategic choke points with this line of thinking.
I think they would settle for a neutral/east leaning buffer state between them and Poland-Germany.
I think they would settle for a neutral/east leaning buffer state between them and Poland-Germany.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:06 pm to Tantal
quote:
disagree. Ethnic Russians are aging into irrelevance, if not near-extinction. The only portion of their population that's growing are the Turkic Muslims in the far south. When push comes to shove, those people are going to align with Ankara over Moscow. The Chechens already kicked them out once, but in typical Russian fashion, they came back and bribed one of the factions with weapons, money, and intel to defeat their internal rivals. That's how Chechnya got the Kadyrovs.
We are less than a generation from the machines making l the machines, commodities, particularly those which are high value are far more important than worker bees going forward, they can create babies through social policy if need be.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:10 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Same goes for much of Europe, so no real threat from the west. China and Japan also have demographic implosion.
NATO, when you EXCLUDE the U.S., already has 3 times the population of Russia AND more capital. Yes, Western Europe could easily pose a threat to Russia absent nuclear weapons. While China's population will probably be cut in half by the end of the century, that still puts them at over 600M and they rely heavily on imported energy and food. With Russia unable to defend themselves in the far east, don't be surprised if China makes a move on their territory. Sakhalin Island used to be part of Japan and is barely off the coast of Japan's northernmost Island of Hokkaido. There's oil and natural gas there. Japan knows this because Japanese firms are the ones that built the infrastructure there. Once Russia lacks the resources to defend it, Japan will likely take it.
Keep in mind that the world that you and I understand is artificial. By historical standards, the last 80 years have been the most peaceful. Once the U.S. is no longer enforcing the global order, which we're losing interest in by the day, everyone will revert back to their old warring, imperialist ways.
This post was edited on 9/29/23 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:23 pm to Tantal
quote:
They're plugging gaps.
With planes, missiles, rockets, and drones the gaps can’t be plug even if the Russians had enough soldiers.
Russia is using tactics of the past,
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:26 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
Russia will emerge from this as one of the biggest players in modern drone warfare.
I'm not sure they surpass Iran in the next 5 years.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:33 pm to doubleb
quote:
With planes, missiles, rockets, and drones the gaps can’t be plug even if the Russians had enough soldiers.
Even if you throw drones, bombs, and missiles into a theater, it still isn't yours until men with rifles secure it. There's a difference between destroying it and actually taking it.
quote:
Russia is using tactics of the past
Russia's 3 best weapons have always been distance, winter, and bodies. They've never been particularly adept at warfare, especially against a technological peer or superior.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 10:44 pm to Tantal
quote:
Russia's 3 best weapons have always been distance, winter, and bodies. They've never been particularly adept at warfare, especially against a technological peer or superior.
The people Russia is dead set on fighting, namely Europe, don't want or need its territory. Meanwhile it's leaving its southern and far eastern flanks exposed. Not that anybody is going to invade them but as you stated above, the diplomatic and demographic threat is real.
Posted on 9/29/23 at 11:06 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
The people Russia is dead set on fighting, namely Europe, don't want or need its territory.
It's not the land, it's the resources. Hitler already tried. If you think about it, 80 years in the grand scheme of world history isn't very long. We haven't changed that much.
quote:I think that they're just trying to skin one cat at a time. The Caucasus are somewhat held down by their forces in Armenia and Georgia, plus Turkey isn't on the warpath.
Meanwhile it's leaving its southern and far eastern flanks exposed
Their friendly (at least for now) relations with China probably gives them some time there. If not, the Ukrainka air base is conveniently located equidistant from Beijing and Tokyo. At the last Google satellite pass, they had 31 Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers parked on the tarmac there. I don't think they have much choice but to rely on the nuclear deterrent in the far east. They had to bring old T-54s and T-55s from their eastern provinces just to fight Ukraine. There's no way that they could move a conventional army, their equipment, and the logistical support from Europe to the far east on those two rail lines.....even if they had the men and equipment to move, which they don't.
Posted on 9/30/23 at 12:10 am to Tantal
Russia is just trying to get more warm-water ports and overland right-of-ways so they can keep up with China at plundering Africa. Putin isn't trying to protect Russia's natural resources - He's going after the low-hanging fruit in Africa.
Posted on 9/30/23 at 12:28 am to Tantal
quote:
NATO, when you EXCLUDE the U.S., already has 3 times the population of Russia AND more capital.
Sticking my nose where it doesn't belong in this convo... So why are we supplying the vast majority of the weapons and funding? EU, anyone?
I feel like we should tackle one issue at a time. We should send not one Euro/Dollar more than is sent by the EU to UKR. We should never deplete our stocks which interfere with our currently established mission, which I guess is equity, so it's fine.
The Aussies just had to decom hundreds? of choppers and are begging for UH-60s from us. To Aussies or to UKR? Aussies all day, in my view.
You talk about global order, but we've just left Poland and other former socialist states enforcing it, because they know the penalty for being weak. I'd have more sympathy for UKR if they knew what I did 20 years ago, is that they were a target for Russia, just like they were 80 years ago. Their problem is that they trusted the west.
Japan will take it. LOL. You must have spent a lot of time talking to the dude in the jeep in Tokyo that swears they never lost the war, two loudspeakers at a time. Not that is has to do with war, but you should read, "Dogs and Demons." Japanese build, because Japanese build. There isn't largely a bigger impulse there. Concrete equals progress to most of them.
How are the Belgians dropping grenades right now for "imperial ways?" Ask Congo, Niger, etc. if they'd rather have French & American Special Forces there or not. Not the politicians that are being paid by rando Asian entities through some people that occasionally live in Delaware, but the people that need to go buy cooking fuel.
Posted on 9/30/23 at 1:01 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Pavel Gubarev proves the effectiveness of propaganda and indoctrination on the feeble mind.
Gubarev is very smart. He’s from the Donbas and went to university there, he was a history major.
His memoir is worth reading.
Posted on 9/30/23 at 2:04 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Because there are natural geographical barriers (deserts, mountains, seas, etc.) to Russia, but there are gaps in them. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union controlled every gap (Baltic Sea, Polish Gap, Bessarabian Gap, Black Sea, the coastal strips of the Caucasus, Central Asian Corridor, and the Dzungarian Gate). Their goal is to get static troops stationed in those gaps again to fend off potential invasions. This is why Russia still has forces in Transnistria, Georgia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. They're plugging gaps.
They can't effectively plug the supposed gaps they wish to, even if they possess them-- and simply to possess them would require the subjugation of populations twice of the Russian Federation.
They have no right to feel sufficiently comfy in their own borders by demolishing their neighbors. That's not anyone else's problem, but theirs.
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